Week 6

When I bet on Colorado the week after I predicted they would get blown out by Oregon State.  

The spreads are getting tighter.  Vegas is getting wiser.  Like the BYU line moved 4.5 points in the direction I predicted last week.  I asked myself whether I should still make my picks public and show them to Vegas.

Then again, I guess my picks are like the old Green Bay Packers power sweep. You know it’s coming and you still can’t stop it.


+ Week 6 Plays --

SMU (+7) - Rutgers
Syracuse (+13) - Clemson
Temple (+34) - Louisville
Colorado (+38) - Oregon


Last Week: 5-5
Season: 49-33-2 (59.8%)


4 home underdogs.  One time!

Week 5 Recap

Watching TCU score 41 points in the second half:

+ Week 5 Winners -- 

Oregon St (-10) - Colorado

Kent St (+3) - Western Michigan

BYU (-20.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Hawaii (+18.5) - Fresno St 

Alabama (-14) - Mississippi

+ Week 5 Losers -- 

Temple (-7) - Idaho

Rice (-12) - Florida Atlantic
SMU (+19.5) - TCU

Notre Dame (+3.5) - Oklahoma

Connecticut (+1) - Buffalo 

Last Week: 5-5
Season: 49-33-2 (59.8%)

Heat, so much heat to start the day.  Cooled off hard.  Feeling like Week 6 is when it all comes together.  Can't cage a songbird.

Thursday Picks

What I look like trying to simultaneously eat lunch and make my picks on Thursdays:

Rounding out the Top 10...

Hawaii (+18.5) - Fresno St
Connecticut (+1) - Buffalo
Alabama (-14) - Mississippi

Hawaii (+18.5) - Fresno State's 118th-ranked defense versus Hawaii's 119th-ranked offense.  A pillow fight if I've ever seen one.

Connecticut (+1) - Neither team looked good last week.  UConn never stood a chance against Michigan and Buffalo needed 5 OT's to beat Stony Brook (FCS).

Alabama (-14) - When the Tide's third-stringers are playing the 4th quarter and Ole Miss threatens to backdoor cover, Saban won't allow it.  Too much intensity.  Too much fire.

PS - Hey Vegas, can I get the Texas A&M line one time?  You're making me sweat over here.

Week 5 Notes

Thinking about writing about my top plays every week.  Instead of just giving you my sharp picks, tell you why I see value.  Would people enjoy this?

//

Ten fewer games this week in college football and for the first time this season, no FBS vs FCS matchups.

Oregon St (-10) - Lock City. This is a Colorado team that went 1-11 last year.

Temple (-7) - When Idaho’s coach brings his team onto the field it’s like leading a lamb to slaughter.

Kent St (+3) - Western Michigan has scored 33 points in 3 losses at Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa. No bueno.

SMU (+19.5) - Last three meetings have been decided by less than this year's spread and SMU even won two years ago.

Notre Dame (+3.5) - Notre Dame has question marks on defense but still a team that is 15-2 in their last 17 games with losses only to Alabama and Michigan.

Week 5

Absolutely need the occasional 4-6 Saturday.  Keeps you on your toes.  Keeps you sharp.  When I see that I'm still over 60%:

+ Week 5 Plays --

Oregon St (-10) - Colorado
Temple (-7) - Idaho
Kent St (+3) - Western Michigan
Rice (-12) - Florida Atlantic
SMU (+19.5) - TCU
BYU (-20.5) - Middle Tennessee St
Notre Dame (+3.5) - Oklahoma

Last Week: 4-6
Season: 44-28-2 (61.1%)

Week 4 Recap

+ Week 4 Winners -- 

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Syracuse (-13.5) - Tulane

Georgia Tech (-5) - North Carolina

Utah St (+6.5) - Southern Cal

Ball St (-10.5) - Eastern Michigan

+ Week 4 Losers -- 

Army (+3.5) - Wake Forest

Florida Int'l (+42) - Louisville

Indiana (+4.5) - Missouri

Florida Atlantic (+5) - Middle Tennessee St

Hawaii (+12) - Nevada

Air Force (+5) - Wyoming

Last Week: 4-6
Season: 44-28-2 (61.1%)

ICE COLD!

Heinous!

When I see Florida Atlantic head into overtime and I have them +5:

When I see Florida Atlantic lose by 7:

Thursday Picks

Expectations for Week 4:

Rounding out the Top 10...

Ball St (-10.5) - Eastern Michigan
Air Force (+5) - Wyoming

I'm not going to predict a 10-0 record this week but will be shocked if I'm not at least 9-1.  Even Bath Ruth struck out sometimes.

PS - I don't know what Vegas is up to right now.  ND down to -4.5 after opening at -7?  Mind games like you read about.  They better be careful or I will be laying a month's rent on the Irish if it keeps dropping.

Week 4

You just know Cooper Manning tries to join these games every time and gets denied.


+ Week 4 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"
Syracuse (-13.5) - Tulane
Army (+3.5) - Wake Forest
Georgia Tech (-5) - North Carolina
Utah St (+6.5) - Southern Cal
Florida Int'l (+42) - Louisville
Indiana (+4.5) - Missouri
Florida Atlantic (+5) - Middle Tennessee St
Hawaii (+12) - Nevada


Last Week: 10-6
Season: 40-22-2 (64.5%)

Yeah there are only 8 picks.  17 out of the 58 games don't have lines yet.   How about Vegas right now.  Just tucking its tail between its legs.  Afraid to offer spreads knowing the Mainstream will pounce immediately on any weak offer.  Honestly can't blame them.

Week 3 Recap

Top 10 picks went 8-2 again.  That's 8-2, 8-2, and 6-3-1 in the first three weeks.  75.9%

+ Week 3 Winners -- 

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Stony Brook (+13) - Buffalo

Air Force (+23.5) - Boise St

Louisiana-Lafayette (-23.5) - Nicholls St

Rice (-5) - Kansas

Texas Tech (+3.5) - TCU

South Alabama (+11) - Western Kentucky

Georgia Tech (-8) - Duke

Georgia St (+38.5) - West Virginia

Army (+30.5) - Stanford 

+ Week 3 Losers -- 

Youngstown St (+27) - Michigan St

Minnesota (-23.5) - Western Illinois

Nevada (+32) - Florida St

Tulsa (+24.5) - Oklahoma

Connecticut (+7.5) - Maryland

Texas (-2.5) - Mississippi

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 40-22-2 (64.5%)

Honest question, if Minnesota's coach has a seizure on the sidelines during the game, shouldn't Vegas refund the bet?  The Gophers were just rattled at that point.  Can't play like that.  Feel like I should be able to say the Top 10 went 8-1 this week.

Everyone Is On Alabama Today... Oh Wait I'm Not

Everyone I've talked to likes Alabama today.  Well fellow Mnstreamer Kevin and I are going with Texas A&M +8.5.  It's Johnny Football.  Wake up!

Thursday Picks - If You're Not Riding The Stream Right Now You're A Sucker Of Epic Proportions

When I bet Texas after they gave up 1,000 rushing yards to BYU last week...

Texas (-2.5) - Mississippi
Army (+30.5) - Stanford


Most of the lines moving in my favor again this week. Surprised? Haha, no.
Two lines moved away from me, Florida State (3.5 pts) and West Virginia (1.5 pts). Not thrilled but it's gotta be from the dumb public bettors laying heavy favorites.

h/t Deeves on the gif

Gallon's First Touchdown

Chesson went Diesel

Is The Algorithm Working?

Early in the year, I'll know if my picks are strong based on closing lines.  And I'll bet any game if I see value.  It's called being a sharp.  Cross I bear.

PS - Samford (+32.5) against Arkansas.  Richmond (+23) against NC State.  In the fourth quarters, Samford was winning 21-17 and Richmond was up 21-20.  Betting underdogs 101.

Week 3

Friends were chirping at me last Saturday.  Asking, wanting, demanding my lock of the week.  No-brainer city.  South Florida +24.5 at Michigan State.  Listen I know the Bulls are bad but they could have been shut out and covered.

Sparty's offense:

+ Week 3 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Stony Brook (+13) - Buffalo

Youngstown St (+27) - Michigan St

Air Force (+23.5) - Boise St

Minnesota (-23.5) - Western Illinois

Louisiana-Lafayette (-23.5) - Nicholls St

Rice (-5) - Kansas

Texas Tech (+3.5) - TCU

South Alabama (+11) - Western Kentucky

Georgia Tech (-8) - Duke

"Rest of the Picks"

Nevada (+32) - Florida St

Tulsa (+24.5) - Oklahoma

Georgia St (+38.5) - West Virginia

Connecticut (+7.5) - Maryland

Last Week: 17-7-1
Season: 30-16-2 (65.2%)

h/t Deeves on the gif

Week 2 Recap

When my picks go Beast Mode and finish 8-2* in my Top 10:

+ Week 2 Winners --
Sam Houston St (+46.5) - Texas A&M
Eastern Kentucky (+41) – Louisville
Cal Poly (+27) - Fresno St
Samford (+32.5) - Arkansas
San Jose St (+27) – Stanford
South Alabama (+6.5) – Tulane
Boston College (-3) - Wake Forest
South Florida (+24.5) - Michigan St
Central Arkansas (+16) – Colorado
Richmond (+23) - North Carolina St
Portland St (+27.5) – California
Mississippi St (-42.5) - Alcorn St
Maine (-3) – Massachusetts
South Dakota (+23.5) – Kansas
Utah (-23) - Weber St
Kansas St (-10) - Louisiana-Lafayette
North Carolina (-17) - Middle Tennessee St

+ Week 2 Losers -- 
Tennessee-Martin (+35) - Boise St
Temple (+3) – Houston
Arkansas St (+13) - Auburn
Louisiana-Monroe (-39) - Grambling St
Florida Int'l (+24.5) - Central Florida
San Diego St (+28) - Ohio State
Stephen F. Austin (+38) - Texas Tech

+ Push --
North Texas (+6) - Ohio U

Last Week: 17-7-1
Season: 30-16-2 (65.2%)

*8-2 with a horrible beat.  Should have went 9-1.  Temple was looking like a tasty cover the whole game until Houston scored with a minute left.  Can't have it.  Won't have it.

Thursday Picks And A Big Weekend Ahead

Remember in Wedding Crashers how Bradley Cooper* took the backyard football game a little too serious?  That's how dialed in I am for Saturday in Ann Arbor.  Big tailgate, bigger game, lots of bets, the works.

North Carolina (-17) - Middle Tennessee St
Stephen F. Austin (+38) - Texas Tech


PS - How about the line movement on my top play this week?  I locked in Sam Houston St at +46.5 on Monday.  It went up to +48 on Tuesday.  Now it's down to +37.5.  Am I responsible?  I don't know, you tell me.



*Sack Lodge

Week 2

Do I say I feel good about my picks every week?  Yes.  Do I actually feel good about my picks this week?  Also yes.

When I realized how many underdogs I picked:

+ Week 2 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"

Sam Houston St (+46.5) - Texas A&M 

Eastern Kentucky (+41) - Louisville
Cal Poly (+27) - Fresno St
Samford (+32.5) - Arkansas
Tennessee-Martin (+35) - Boise St
Temple (+3) - Houston
San Jose St (+27) - Stanford
South Alabama (+6.5) - Tulane
Boston College (-3) - Wake Forest
South Florida (+24.5) - Michigan St


"Rest of the Picks"

Arkansas St (+13) - Auburn
Central Arkansas (+16) - Colorado
Richmond (+23) - North Carolina St
Portland St (+27.5) - California
Louisiana-Monroe (-39) - Grambling St
North Texas (+6) - Ohio U
Florida Int'l (+24.5) - Central Florida
Mississippi St (-42.5) - Alcorn St
Maine (-3) - Massachusetts
South Dakota (+23.5) - Kansas
Utah (-23) - Weber St
Kansas St (-10) - Louisiana-Lafayette
San Diego St (+28) - Ohio State


Last Week: 13-9-1
Season: 13-9-1 (59.1%)

Week 1 Recap

When I checked scores on Saturday night:

+ Week 1 Winners -- 

Georgia St (+21.5) - Samford
Western Carolina (+32) - Middle Tennessee St
Buffalo (+35) - Ohio State 

William & Mary (+32) - West Virginia 

Austin Peay (+50.5) - Tennessee
Central Florida (-21) – Akron

Hawaii (+21.5) - Southern Cal

Syracuse (+8) - Penn State 

Temple (+30) - Notre Dame 

Houston (-40) - Southern U.

Southern Illinois (+18) - Illinois
Southern Utah (+17) - South Alabama 

Arkansas St (-26) - Arkansas-Pine Bluff 

+ Week 1 Losers -- 

San Diego St (-15) - Eastern Illinois
Brigham Young (pk) - Virginia 

Indiana St (+24.5) - Indiana 

Utah St (+2.5) - Utah
Elon (+46.5) - Georgia Tech 

Florida Int'l (+21) - Maryland 

Army (-32) - Morgan St 

Eastern Michigan (-17) - Howard 

Wofford (+30.5) - Baylor 

+ Push --

Northern Arizona (+35) - Arizona 

Last Week: 13-9-1
Season: 13-9-1 (59.1%)

I could say I’m pleased with 59% but then I’d be lying through my teeth.  I hit 71% during Week 1 last year and that’s the bar for September.

How about Eastern Illinois flat out bringing it again San Diego St?  My top play got smoked.  Never seen such a thing.  Mind games all over the place.

PS – LSU fans, passion times infinity