More Week 5 Plays: Friday Morning Update

When I'm struggling to push lines and exploit value, it feels like:

Normally I submit picks on Monday/Thursday but after yesterday's post, I kept my eye on a few games. Following some overnight moves, I like the extra value we're seeing today.

+ Week 5 Plays -- 

Georgia Tech (-26.5) - Middle Tennessee St

South Florida (+17.5) - Florida St

Fresno St (-7) - San Diego St

+ Gut Plays -- 

Georgia (-13.5) - Tennessee

More Week 5 Plays

When the model goes on a hot streak:

+ Week 5 Plays -- 
Massachusetts (+24.5) - Ohio U.

New Mexico St (+1) - Texas-San Antonio

Idaho (+27) - North Carolina

Note: New Mexico State opened at -4. It’s now +1. If one of the ‘Streamers hears anything (like the QB is hurt) post the info in the comments. 

Line Moves for the Model 

Monday through Thursday. (Bet-On Team, old line, shift)

Capture more EV model!  Diabolical.

Boston College, +9.5, 1.5

Oklahoma St, +2.5, 0.5

Duke, +3, 0.5

Utah St, -17.5, 3

Southern Miss, +10.5, 0.5

Arizona St, +2.5, 3.5

Wisconsin, +13.5, 2

Houston, -4.5, 3

Purdue, -15.5, 1.5

Tulsa, -13.5, 0.5

Tulane, +20, 2

Connecticut, -18, -2

Arkansas St, +2.5, 0

Dubious

"Russell what happened on that last play?" 

"I threw a INT and then my guy put his hands on the ball in the pile and one guy called it a TD."

Week 5

When my friends are ready to place a bet but see that the model disagrees:

+ Week 5 Plays -- 
Boston College (+9.5) - Clemson

Oklahoma St (+2.5) - Texas

Duke (+3) - Wake Forest

Utah St (-17.5) - UNLV

Southern Miss (+10.5) - Louisville

Arizona St (+2.5) - California

Wisconsin (+13.5) - Nebraska

Connecticut (-18) - Buffalo

Arkansas St (+2.5) - Western Kentucky

Houston (-4.5) - Rice

Purdue (-15.5) - Marshall

Tulsa (-13.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

Tulane (+20) - Louisiana-Monroe

Last Week: 10-7 
Season: 38-20-1 (65.5%)

// 

+ Gut Plays -- 
TCU (-17) – SMU.  The Horned Frogs are an absolute force right now.

Week 4 Recap

When someone asks if I'm happy with a 10-7 record?

+ Week 4 Winners --
South Alabama (+34.5) - Mississippi St
Maryland (+28) - West Virginia
Florida Int'l (+13.5) - Louisville
Massachusetts (+26.5) - Miami OH
Eastern Michigan (+32.5) - Michigan St
Colorado (+21) - Washington St
Akron (+34) - Tennessee
Miami FL (+14.5) - Georgia Tech
Wyoming (+1.5) - Idaho
TCU (-17) - Virginia

+ Week 4 Losers --
Wisconsin (-16) - UTEP
North Texas (pk) - Troy
Army (+7) - Wake Forest
Bowling Green (+19.5) - Virginia Tech
Kentucky (+24.5) - Florida
Southern Miss (+4) - Western Kentucky
Vanderbilt (+16) - Georgia

Not pleased with the cadets this weekend.  Army was winning at halftime, covering in the final minutes, and they still let Wake Forest backdoor-cover us.  Would have been satisfied with 11-6.

//

Last Week: 10-7
Season: 38-20-1 (65.5%)

Does This Look Like The Face Of A Guy Who Just Heard That The Underdog Has Won 7 Of The Last 8 Games In The Michigan - Notre Dame Series?

More Week 4 Plays

When friends get behind my picks and rally:

+ Week 4 Plays --
Colorado (+21) - Washington St
Akron (+34) - Tennessee
Miami FL (+14.5) - Georgia Tech
Wyoming (+1.5) - Idaho
TCU (-17) - Virginia
Vanderbilt (+16) - Georgia

//

Biggest Line Moves 
Monday through Thursday. (Home Team, old line, new line)
North Carolina, -14.5, -17
Washington State, -18.5, -21
Iowa, -17, -14.5 

UCLA, -10, -7.5

Placing Bets

Visits to the Mainstream have grown exponentially since Labor Day.  For those new to the Stream, the picks are listed in order of confidence (+EV), top to bottom.  Thought this info might help the squids who only place one or two bets each week.

Saturday Night. Under the Lights.

Tickets going on the black market for an arm a leg and your first born.

Week 4

When the model finds value on UMass (0-3 ATS this year):

+ Week 4 Plays --

South Alabama (+34.5) - Mississippi St

Wisconsin (-16) - UTEP

Maryland (+28) - West Virginia

North Texas (pk) - Troy

Army (+7) - Wake Forest

Bowling Green (+19.5) - Virginia Tech

Florida Int'l (+13.5) - Louisville

Kentucky (+24.5) - Florida

Massachusetts (+26.5) - Miami OH

Eastern Michigan (+32.5) - Michigan St

Southern Miss (+4) - Western Kentucky

Last Week: 10-7-1 
Season: 28-13-1 (68.3%)

+ Gut Plays --

Notre Dame (-6) - Michigan
To keep it close, UofM will have to stop ND's running game and let's be honest, the dudes on The Big Bang Theory are more intimidating than Michigan's defense right now.

Week 3 Recap

Britney, what are your thoughts about the model's performance last week?

+ Week 3 Winners --

Oklahoma State (-22) - Louisiana-Lafayette

Stanford (+9) - Southern Cal

Texas Tech (-32.5) - New Mexico

Arizona State (+7) - Missouri

South Alabama (+31.5) - North Carolina State

Pittsburgh (+10.5) - Virginia Tech

South Carolina (-33.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

Utah (+4.5) - Brigham Young. 

Louisiana-Monroe (+16.5) - Auburn

Notre Dame (+6.5) - Michigan State

+ Week 3 Losers --

Boston College (+4) - Northwestern

Arkansas (+20) - Alabama
Houston (+18) - UCLA
Indiana (-2.5) - Ball State
Memphis (+3.5) - Middle Tennessee State
TCU (-21) – Kansas

North Carolina (+4.5) - Louisville

+ Push --

Washington State (-8) - UNLV

The craziest finish to a game award goes to the BYU-Utah showdown.  The aptly named Holy War ended 3 times.  The fans rushed the field 3 times.  I was sweating bullets 3 times.

//

Last Week: 10-7-1 
Season: 28-13-1 (68.3%)

Saturday Update: Bad Beats Everywhere

How many ways can one take a beat on Saturday afternoon?

Failed 2-pt conversions in the final minutes:
North Carolina, Western Michigan

Late-game touchdowns:
Washington State, Boston College

And my personal favorite:
TCU
Fumbled in Kansas' territory at the following yard lines.  1. 7. 9. 23.
Oh they also missed a chipshot field goal from the 10.

More Week 3 Plays

Update: Thursday plays

Just booked these lines following mid-week moves.  All road teams; 3 dogs.  The public loves favorites.

+ Week 3 Plays -- 
Washington State (-8) - UNLV
North Carolina (+4.5) - Louisville
Notre Dame (+6.5) - Michigan State

+ Gut Plays --
Western Michigan (+3.5) - Minnesota

Week 3

As of Monday afternoon, many lines were moving 0.5-1 point off the open.  Place your bets early, or as Hugh says:

+ Week 3 Plays --
Oklahoma State (-22) - Louisiana-Lafayette
Stanford (+9) - Southern Cal
Boston College (+4) - Northwestern
Arkansas (+20) - Alabama
Houston (+18) - UCLA
Texas Tech (-32.5) - New Mexico
Arizona State (+7) - Missouri
South Alabama (+31.5) - North Carolina State
Indiana (-2.5) - Ball State
Memphis (+3.5) - Middle Tennessee State
Pittsburgh (+10.5) - Virginia Tech
South Carolina (-33.5) - Alabama-Birmingham
Utah (+4.5) - Brigham Young
Louisiana-Monroe (+16.5) - Auburn
TCU (-21) - Kansas

Last Week: 8-2-0
Season: 18-6-0 (75.0%)

+ Gut Plays --
Florida (+3.5) - Tennessee

Watching
Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Washington State, Western Michigan

Week 2 Recap

Sean Connery's thoughts on the first two weeks:

+ Week 2 Winners --

Connecticut (+6) - North Carolina St

Penn State (+10) - Virginia.  Tough day for the Penn St kicker, Ficken. 1-5 on field goals. Missed a 20 yarder.  Missed a 30 yard game-winner. Missed a PAT. Pretty much missed every way possible. And none of them were close either. All were instashanks. Just no chance from the second they left his foot. Even the one he hit was disgusting. A knuckleball that had no idea where it was going.

Fresno St (+35) - Oregon

Ball St (+27.5) - Clemson

Stanford (-14.5) - Duke

Louisiana-Monroe (+31.5) - Arkansas.  I think John L smacked himself.

Maryland (+11) - Temple.  Outright win by 11 for the Terps.

Cincinnati (-4) - Pittsburgh

+ Week 2 Losers --
Massachusetts (+14) - Indiana

Oklahoma St (-11) - Arizona

Last Week: 8-2-0
Season: 18-6-0 (75.0%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week --
Ugh

Forward Down The Field

Lions: 27.  Rams: 23.
Your Detroit Lions are 1/16th of the way towards their perfect season.

Still, against the vaunted Rams secondary, what's the deal with the passing game?  Three picks.  Multiple drops.  Heck even this conversation ensued during the 3rd quarter.

Old Sko: Stafford's passing progressions are identical to the Kübler-Ross stages of grief.
Hone: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, Pettigrew, drop.

Thursday Night Football

Caption Contest

Sunseri's had the most success when he works through progressions, feels the pressure, and then throws from Downward Facing Dog.

Opening Lines

// When opening lines move against me:

In the first 4 to 5 weeks, we'll see a lot of line movements.  Action.  This variance stems from uncertainty and unknown variables early in the season.  A sign of a true sharp player is if he can get ahead of the "steam".  Lines moving in my favor throughout the week (following my Monday bets) will reveal my talents just as much as the actual games.

In Week 1 lines moved both ways.  The final spread is listed in bold.

Massachusetts (+24.5) – UConn  (+21)

North Texas (+44) – LSU  (+42)

Texas-San Antonio (+6.5) - South Alabama  (+5)

Boston College (+3) – Miami  (+2)

Bowling Green (+29) – Florida  (+28.5)

Hawaii (+40) – USC  (+43.5)

Baylor (-10) – SMU  (-7)

Boise St (+7) - Michigan St  (+8.5)

Wyoming (+30) – Texas  (+31)

Notre Dame (-15) – Navy  (-14.5)

Stanford (-26) - San Jose St  (-26)

Southern Miss (+20.5) – Nebraska  (+20.5)

Buffalo (+38) – Georgia  (+38)

Duke (-3) - Florida Int’l  (-3)

// When lines move in my favor and I'm convinced it's because of my bets (which carry the heat of 1,000 white hot suns in Vegas):

Saturday Night in Review

When C.J. Mosley scored on a pick-6 to go up 31-0...

Brady Hoke's reaction:

My reaction:

Week 2

At this point, anything less than a 70% week will feel like:

+ Week 2 Plays --
Connecticut (+6) - North Carolina St

Penn State (+10) - Virginia

Fresno St (+35) - Oregon

Ball St (+27.5) - Clemson

Massachusetts (+14) - Indiana

Stanford (-14.5) - Duke

Louisiana-Monroe (+31.5) - Arkansas

Maryland (+11) - Temple

Cincinnati (-4) - Pittsburgh

Oklahoma St (-11) - Arizona

Cinci opened at (-2.5). Sharps hit it and it's now at (-4). Get it early and often.

Last Week: 10-4-0 (71.4%)
Season: 10-4-0

+ Gut Plays --

Mizzou (+3) - Georgia. Welcome to the SEC.

// Note: Remain careful with Stanford. I believe the Cardinal are mispriced. Working on a solution.

Week 1 Recap - Did he?

First week in the books.  Being out of town late last week, I left some value on the table when the remaining lines were released.  Not happy with it.

+ Week 1 Winners --

Bowling Green (+29) – Florida

North Texas (+44) – LSU

Notre Dame (-15) - Navy

Baylor (-10) - SMU

Hawaii (+40) - USC

Wyoming (+30) - Texas

Boise St (+7) - Michigan St

Texas-San Antonio (+6.5) - South Alabama

Buffalo (+38) - Georgia

Duke (-3) - Florida Int’l

+ Week 1 Losers --
Stanford (-26) - San Jose St.  Need a new way to account for the loss of Luck.

Southern Miss (+20.5) - Nebraska

Boston College (+3) - Miami

Massachusetts (+24.5) - UConn

Last Week: 10-4-0 (71.4%)
Season: 10-4-0

+ Gut Plays of the Week --
1-1 split. Alabama rolled in Dallas while Vandy covered nicely on the Thursday night kickoff.

Michigan - Alabama

To win the game even keep it competitive, I thought Michigan had to do two things.
1. Stop the run
2. Win the turnover battle

Zero for two.  Alabama's o-line controlled the line of scrimmage all game en route to 247 rushing yards, while Michigan rushed for 69 yards.
Alabama also won the turnover battle 3-1, including a pick-6 in the second quarter.

Since this was the opener, the first test felt more like a final exam on the first day of the semester.

Ugh!

Alabama 41
Michigan 14

Get me back to the party bus.  Booze city.