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Monday, September 29, 2014

Week 6

Need to make a splash this week.  Thinking 5-0.  Some may say this slow start is a cause for concern.  People are probably thinking that the Mainstream has lost its touch.  Well this is the exactly the time that the Stream digs in and delivers.  I legit don't think it's possible that we finish below .500 in back-to-back months.  Not today, not ever.

Now to the games.  Do I think there's value on Michigan +3.5 in Piscataway?




2 Units
Washington St (-3) - California

1 Unit
Georgia Tech (+2) - Miami FL
Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Alabama-Birmingham
Rice (-6) - Hawaii
SMU (+40) - East Carolina

//

Lines: 9/29/2014 1:00pm

Week 5 Recap

Dialed up a few winners and losers on Saturday.  So much value in the Syracuse line to not deliver (Cuse lost by 16).  Some of the Stream's biggest +EV plays this year have been duds.

Bowling Green hung on to beat UMass in a game where both teams went well over 600 yards in total offense. The final Minutemen TD created a potential middle for players who got the optimum numbers on each side that were available during the week.

Ohio State clubbed Cincinnati. The Bearcats got a couple of late first half scores to make this interesting for a bit. But the Buckeyes were way too much, and ended up with some lopsided stat advantages.

Duke flopped in a big spot at Miami. The Blue Devils were gaining lots of believers with their early play, but they got pretty well owned in this one by the ‘Canes. The game was still there for the taking in the fourth quarter with the margin only six, but I never got the sense at any point that Duke would get the win.

Georgia hung on to outlast Tennessee 35-32 in a very exciting game. Todd Gurley ran wild again for the Bulldogs.


+ Week 5 Winners -- 
Ohio State (-14.5) - Cincinnati
Bowling Green (-4.5) - Massachusetts
Vanderbilt (+17) - Kentucky
Rice (-8) - Southern Miss

+ Week 5 Losers -- 
Syracuse (+14) - Notre Dame
SMU (+31) - TCU
Eastern Illinois (+6) - Ohio U.
Duke (+7) - Miami FL

//

Last Week: 4-4
Season: 31-34 (47.7%)
Net Units: 0
Win/Loss: $-436.32

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Thursday Picks

When people get behind the Stream's picks after a 9-4 week:


So people are betting big on Michigan this week?  I have no idea why.  The line opened as low as -7 and the train has left the station.  This game is also drawing a ton of discussion in the Stream’s comment section (two posts).

Popular teams as big chalk don’t usually draw in the sharps but that’s not the case this week with Ohio State.   Lots of pro money on the Bucks.

Bowling Green opened as an -11 point favorite and dropped down to -4.5.  I see some value there.  We’ll toss a unit on the Falcons this week.

There is a sharp/square battle in the Big 12 with the pros backing Iowa State. The public is very reluctant to play against monster offenses like Baylor, this line move is all from sharp bets.

(h/t Dave Cokin)



+ Week 5 Picks (Thursday) --

2 Units
Eastern Illinois (+6) - Ohio U.

1 Unit
Bowling Green (-4.5) - Massachusetts
Duke (+7) - Miami FL
Vanderbilt (+17) - Kentucky
Rice (-8) - Southern Miss

//

Lines: 9/25/2014 11:00am




PS – I’m keeping my eye on ‘Washington St (+13.5) – Utah’ and ‘Kent St (+27.5) – Virginia.’  If they reach +14 and +28, I’ll lock that number.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Monday Afternoon Update

Breaking News: The Syracuse-ND line is going bananas.  I was analyzing this game at 11:30am when it was +14, now it's all over the board.

Some sharps may be discounting Syracuse because they lost 34-20 to Maryland last week.  They outgained the Terps by 220 yards [589 to 369].

This game will be played at Met Life Stadium and if any team gets a home-field advantage, it's probably the Irish.


Week 5

Only hitting a few games early in the week.  I think the Syracuse and Ohio State lines will move, get them early, then prepare for:



+ Week 5 Picks --

2 Units
Syracuse (+14) - Notre Dame

1 Unit
SMU (+31) - TCU
Ohio State (-14.5) - Cincinnati

//

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 27-30 (47.4%)
Net Units: +2
Win/Loss: $-199.96
Lines: 9/22/2014 11:30am

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Week 4 Recap

When a winning record was locked in the books:


Outside of Virginia's late TD against BYU, the rest of the 2-unit games went as planned.  Nebraska over Miami with a -7 line was highway robbery.  Expect the Stream to feed results like this the rest of the season.


+ Week 4 Winners -- 
Appalachian St (+3.5) - Southern Miss
Nebraska (-7) - Miami FL
Indiana (+17) - Missouri
Miami OH (+29) - Cincinnati
Georgia Tech (+7.5) - Virginia Tech
Memphis (-7.5) - Middle Tennessee St
Washington St (+23.5) - Oregon
Minnesota (-8.5) - San Jose St
Wake Forest (+2.5) - Army

+ Week 4 Losers -- 
Brigham Young (-15) - Virginia
Bowling Green (+27) - Wisconsin
Rice (-6.5) - Old Dominion
Arizona (-8) - California

//

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 27-30 (47.4%)
Net Units: +2
Win/Loss: $-199.96

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Thursday Picks

When the Stream continues to find value early in the week:



In a perfect world the sportsbooks would give Stream readers more than an hour to make picks but I supposed that's the nature of this cut-throat business.  Just an instant shift after I posted my picks on Monday.



I found a report on pregame.com that is posted by a wiseguy (Dave Cokin). When his notes about betting action are relevant to my picks, I’ll post them here. 

// Indiana is off a bad loss to Bowling Green but the Hoosiers attracted early sharp money against Missouri.

// Wisconsin has been getting heavy play right from the opening bell, but it’s not necessarily sharp dough. The line increased five points to -27. The Stream will be siding with the house and pulling for a Bowling Green cover.

// I didn’t bet Akron but they are getting plenty of play from pros. This will be a popular side for sharps but the public is going to be on the favorite, creating a pros vs. joes duel.


+ Week 4 Picks (Thursday) --

2 Units
Washington St (+23.5) - Oregon
Minnesota (-8.5) - San Jose St

1 Unit
Bowling Green (+27) - Wisconsin
Rice (-6.5) - Old Dominion
Arizona (-8) - California
Wake Forest (+2.5) - Army

//

Lines: 9/18/2014 12:00pm

Monday, September 15, 2014

Week 4

When Stream readers see my picks at the end of the week and notice all the lines have moved:


Absolutely love the lineup this week.  Tossing out 7 games early, I think we’ll see some big moves.  Is this the week that the Stream turns it around? 


+ Week 4 Picks --

2 Units
Brigham Young (-15) - Virginia
Appalachian St (+3.5) - Southern Miss
Nebraska (-7) - Miami FL

1 Unit
Indiana (+17) - Missouri
Miami OH (+29) - Cincinnati
Georgia Tech (+7.5) - Virginia Tech
Memphis (-7.5) - Middle Tennessee St

//

Last Week: 4-6
Season: 18-26 (40.9%)
Net Units: -6
Win/Loss: $-881.79
Lines: 9/15/2014 12:00pm

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Week 3 Recap


This is what many would call a bad run.  The Stream continues to find edge.  It was nice to see two of the double-digit underdogs (Iowa State and Boston College) win outright.  On the other hand, the close losses were brutal.  Penn State and UConn missed covering by a half-point. Old Dominion closed at -20 and the Stream locked it in at -15; so much value.  They won by 14.  Western Kentucky went to Triple OT before missing the cover by two points.  Once the Stream starts finishing on the other side of these coinflips, it’s going to be a big move.


+ Week 3 Winners -- 
Stanford (-28) - Army
Iowa St (+12.5) - Iowa
Georgia St (+12) - Air Force
Boston College (+19.5) - Southern Cal

+ Week 3 Losers -- 
Western Kentucky (+1) - Middle Tennessee St
Penn State (-3.5) - Rutgers
Arkansas St (+17) - Miami FL
Old Dominion (-15) - Eastern Michigan
Vanderbilt (-17) - Massachusetts
Connecticut (+16.5) - Boise St

//

Last Week: 4-6
Season: 18-26 (40.9%)
Net Units: -6
Win/Loss: $-881.79

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Week 3 - Saturday Special

We have an interesting fact that was discovered by a Stream reader.  The Mainstream's lock of the week [top pick listed] is 16-1 over the last 17 weeks.  Heat check city.

Was away most of this week and wasn't able to post on Thursday.  Got chirped at by many of you.  That being said I'll toss out a Saturday morning special.

//

When I'm just trying to lay on the couch and watch football today while my girlfriend keeps asking to go to the apple orchard:



+ Week 3 Picks  --

1 Unit
Connecticut (+16.5) - Boise St