Again, another solid week. If it weren't for an absolute collapse by Florida (Tennessee is the WORST top 15 team by FAR) and about 10 lucky passes by TN as Dobbs got smashed by Florida, the pick would have been fine. Also, BYU with a late cover (WV up 17 in the 4th quarter)... should have been 5-0. Ended up 3-2. Two solid weeks of picks.
Each week when I watch Tennessee play after hearing about their athleticism:
6-4 in the last two weeks. Plan to use this as a spark for the rest of the year. When someone reminds me that my lock of the week is 1-3 (25%):
Kevin's Week 5 Picks
Stanford +3 over Washington
Duke -3.5 over Virginia
Michigan -10.5 over Wisconsin
Memphis +14.5 over Ole Miss
Georgia +3 over Tennessee (LOW)
Clemson kicked off the week with a 26-7 road win at Georgia Tech on thursday night for the second straight cover after opening 0-2 ATS in their first two outings. The Tigers defense is on a roll, allowing a total of seven points in the past two games. The under is now a perfect 4-0 for Clemson on the season.
It was a battle of Top 10 teams between Michigan State and Wisconsin, but only one team showed up. The Badgers rolled to their second high-profile win of the season, topping Sparty 30-6. The Badgers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Wisconsin's defense has allowed 11.8 points per game (PPG), and the under is 3-1.
Michigan rolled to a 49-10 win over Penn State in their conference opener. The Wolverines improved to 3-1 ATS, while the over is now a perfect 4-0. Next up for the Wolverines is the biggest test to date, as Wisconsin pays a visit to the Big House next Saturday.
Tennessee finally snapped their losing skid against rival Florida, although it didn't start out looking that way. The Gators entered with an 11-game winning streak in this series, and jumped out to a 21-3 lead at the half. However, the second half was all Vols, outscoring the Gators 35-7 en route to a big win and a cover.
LSU headed for the Plains to take on Auburn. The home team won without scoring a touchdown for the first time since 2008 when the Tigers topped Mississippi State 3-2. LSU also lost Heisman hopeful Leonard Fournette to an ankle injury, although he was able to appear later in the final drive, mostly as a decoy. LSU appeared to have a touchdown in the back corner of the end zone for a miraculous win, but after further review the Tigers were unable to get the play off before the play clock hit :00. Before that...
I had conviction on about 10 games in week 3. Only two of them were wrong (both by a point or two). Pretty upset I ended up going only 3-2 but it looks as though I'm back in my groove again. This is a late week pick because of vacation and other issues. My one early pick would have been Wisconsin (+6.5) over MSU. Too late to do that right now but I stand strongly by that.
When people ask me why ESPN continues to talk about the SEC dominance after watching the league (less Alabama) play this year
I will say one thing, you didn’t have to sweat any of my games.
Last week 2-3
Season 2-3 (40%)
Week 4 Picks
Auburn +3.5 over LSU
Northwestern +8 over Nebraska
Marshall +26.5 over Louisville
UTSA +5.5 @ Old Dominion
Western Michigan -7 over Georgia Southern
First play is more of an play against LSU than a play on Auburn. Dont trust Les and that offense to go into Auburn and pull away// Nebraska is coming off an emotional win and having to travel to Evanston. Think NW steps up and keeps it close//Louisville just blew the doors off FSU and has Clemson next week. Think they have been hearing the praise a bit too much. West Virginia will be rocking//UTSA kept it close last week against ASU while Old Dominion has been blown out by better competition//Western Michigan is legit.
Gameday was in Louisville for the first time in history and Lamar Jackson put on a show.
Just one of those days for the Noles. Ice 'em down.
In another matchup of top 15 teams, Ohio State went into Norman and owned the Sooners from start to finish.
Down in Baton Rouge, LSU wore some heinous jerseys and Leonard Fournette murdered a guy. #prayfornumber1
Staying in the SEC, I think Todd from Wedding Crashers plays for Auburn.
In Oxford, Alabama got off to a slow start but eventually rallied and beat Ole Miss. In hindsight, a brutal day for the entire state. Every team in Mississippi lost last weekend. 0-10.
That's Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Southern Miss, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Mississippi Valley State, Millsaps College, Mississippi College, Belhaven and Delta State if you're scoring at home. All lost.
I have been hearing the rumblings. Where is the guy that actually made us $? Well, I am back!!!
Without Further Adieu
Week 3 Picks
Oklahoma (+1.5) over THE Ohio State
Michigan State (+8) over Notre Dame
Miami (-3.5) over App St.
Tennessee -27.5 over Ohio
Illinois +3 over Western Michigan
Oklahoma is a classic home dog. This is the season for Oklahoma right here and I don’t trust all the young guys of OSU to hold up under the lights in Norman, get the Papa Johns ready for Urban// Brian Kelly has Dantonio’s #, however ND pass defense is so porous that you will get the back door cover late in the 4th. // Remember when App St. kept it close at Tennessee? Yeah that was 2 weeks ago, long time in college football, Richt will have the U ready// Tennessee finally hit top gear (get it they played at a racetrack last week) and will roll this week// Home dog, and classic over reaction to WMU rowing the boat week 1 against a terrible NW team.
Week 3. Big week for the B1G. Expecting some big things. This is also the week where things begin to
finally take shape and I shake off the cobwebs of the early games. I have enough football under my belt going
forward for real picks. No excuses.
Still, when I remember how
confident I was last week picking Clemson over Troy:
shake off the dust of the first gamesecond weekand go on an insane run the rest of this season.
College football is back and college football delivered during Week 1.
Game of the weekend was Texas and ND. Just a perfect example of the highs and lows of college football. On one hand you have Charlie Strong getting carried off the field by his players and on the other hand.... #IrishTears
Wisconsin showed up to Lambeau and proved that the Big Ten owns the SEC, save this cheap shot after Wisco sealed the win.
USC hung around with Alabama for a quarter before ol Saban started crushing the hopes and dreams of Trojans' fans at JerryWorld.
And finally, the top play of the weekend. Penn State's kicker absolutely dropping the hammer on some poor kid.
PS - Leaving you with a little 'Stream Fun Fact.... All three Service Academies won their game for the first time in six years.
2016 is upon us! After a long 7 months with no football it's that glorious time of the year where sports begin to matter again. Last year had a rough start but really came alive the second half of the year. I am feeling a lot better about my understanding of the league dynamics and of college football in general. Expecting BIG things this year.
My expectations on how this year will go versus reality:
First week is low hanging fruit. Me Saturday night after I start the week 4-1 or better and receive congratulatory texts:
We have arrived. Week 1. College football. The best.
+ Week 1 Picks --
(+5) - Vanderbilt
(+11.5) - Alabama
(-38.5) - Charlotte
(+8.5) - Colorado
(-15) - Tulane
Last Week: 0-0
Career: 365-294-15 (55.4%)
Considering a late play on West Va -9.5 against Missouri out of respect for their fans and the signs hanging on their porches. After the last year, I now associate Missouri with killing puppies and safe spaces. Team is probably equally soft.
The longtime Streamers will not be surprised here. I’ve picked the Yellow Jackets as much as any other team over the years and they rarely let us down. Paul Johnson’s system is tough to prepare for in a week and they tend to wear teams down during a game. Oh, their first game is in Ireland. This has the makings of a special season.
When it's a few days before the season and I'm grinding my way through last year's stats to update the algorithm...
You could tell this had the makings of a special game even before the kickoff.
Look at the focus. Mark Ingram joined Derrick Henry at the coin toss. The two Heisman winners from Bama.
Derrick Henry is a grown man. Just huge. We're all thinking it, but no one would be dumb enough to tweet at Mark Ingram about it, unless you're Jamele Hill.
Classic Sparty move to poke the bear. And the bear responded. Cue Ingram's response...From the top rope.
Too harsh? Now to the game... Between surprise onside kicks and 3,000 pound touchdowns, we saw Saban lay it all on the line.
And I'm giving all the credit to Saban. Not Lane Kiffin. Kiff probably called for the halfback pass before getting overruled by Saban.
Clemson gave it literally all they had. Deshaun Watson is an absolute monster. Gallman was playing hurt and still turned it on late to give his team a chance. Shaq Lawson was playing with a shredded MCL and draft stock on the line and still ripped off 2 sacks in the first half. Took a Derrick Henry punch to the mouth, shook it off and came right back to build a lead. Took a lead into the 4th quarter. Had Alabama on the ropes. But in the end, Saban is Saban and Bama is Bama.