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Thursday, August 28, 2014

Thursday Picks

Week 1 Guide:

// Pageviews are up in a big way.  Lots of new readers.  For those that are new you will make money betting my picks in 2014.  Facts are facts.  This doesn't mean you have to bet all of them.  I list the picks in order of confidence, top to bottom.  If you only bet the ones near the top, you will clean up.  Beware: Your bookie may legit stop taking action from you.

// There is a lot of uncertainty in September and some lines will move during the week. This is the best time to take advantage.  Lines-makers get a lot better as the season goes on.  Since Monday, many have moved in the direction of my picks.  The lines for Georgia Southern, Indiana, Cal Poly, Eastern Michigan, Boston College, and Washington all moved at least 2 points.  The Eastern Mich line moved from -9 to -15.5 within a few hours on Wednesday.  Never seen such a thing.  The point is to get your picks in early so you can capture the best lines before everyone else catches up.  It's rare but sometimes lines will go against me.  The Northern Illinois and North Texas lines are 1.5 points worse than what I posted on Monday.  This may be the biggest upset of the weekend.

// Many bookies/betting sites don't offer some of the games I posted.  This happens in the first few weeks when there are multiple FBS vs. FCS matchups.  All of these lines come directly from 5Dimes so either get an account there or get rich off the other games.

Two more picks for Week 1.  We are going with Wisconsin in the primetime game.  The Melvin Gordon heisman campaign starts on saturday night.

+ Week 1 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit
Wisconsin (+5) - LSU
Montana (+13) - Wyoming


Last Week: 0-0
Season: 0-0
Lines: 8/28/2014 1:00pm

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Did The Mainstream Do It Again?

Longtime readers understand it's a well known fact that the Mainstream moves lines.  Wouldn't surprise me if Billy Walters visited the Stream every Monday, just waiting for the locks of the week and then heaving.

Let's do a quick recap.

Week 1 picks were posted at 12pm yesterday [8/25/14].

Seriously?  I mean what other whales out there are riding the Stream's picks?  This can't be a coincidence.  Make yourself known.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Week 1

The Mainstream has come a long way since Season 1.  I guess Rome wasn’t built in a day.  Now we’re here with a full slate of games in Week 1, let’s make some money.

I plan on posting my picks with the same schedule as last year – Monday and Thursday afternoons.  Lines are taken from 5Dimes. 

Along with percentages, I am also going to record my winnings in units (dollar values).  1 unit is $100.  This will help readers see my confidence in each pick.

Week 1 has been a moneymaker for the Stream the past two years.  59% and 71%.  Let’s do it again.

+ Week 1 Picks --

4 Units
Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St

3 Units
Indiana (-23.5) - Indiana St
Kansas St (-36.5) - Stephen F. Austin
South Dakota St (+29.5) - Missouri
Cal Poly (-3) - New Mexico St

2 Units
Eastern Illinois (+15.5) - Minnesota
Eastern Michigan (-9) - Morgan St
William & Mary (+20.5) - Virginia Tech
North Dakota St (+3.5) - Iowa St
Kent St (-3) - Ohio U
Northern Illinois (-41) - Presbyterian
Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi
North Texas (+24) - Texas
Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

1 Unit
Connecticut (+16.5) - BYU
Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts
San Jose St (-23.5) - North Dakota
Jacksonville St (+32) - Michigan St
Washington (-15) - Hawaii


Last Week: 0-0
Season: 0-0
Lines: 8/25/2014 11am

Season Totals

A lot can happen over the course of the season, injuries, transfers, the works.  But even in the worst case scenario, I see all three of these picks hitting.

+ Season Total Picks -- 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Over 6.5 (-140)
The longtime Streamers will not be surprised here. I’ve picked the Yellow Jackets as much as any other team over the years and they rarely let us down. Paul Johnson’s system is tough to prepare for in a week and they tend to wear teams down during a game.  Paul Johnson has been a college football head coach for 17 seasons. In those 17 years, his teams have failed to reach the postseason only once.

Georgia Southern Eagles – Over 4.5 (+110)
First things first.  This team has some of the best uniforms in the game so it’s easy to get behind this pick. Like Alabama, except swap out crimson for navy.  This is Georgia Southern’s first season in the FBS and I’m not saying they make the NCAA playoff, but they should compete every week.  After all this is the Georgia Southern team that took down Florida 26-20 in the Swamp last year.

Ohio Bobcats – Under 6.5 (-160)
Few teams lost as many players as Ohio following the 2013 season and there are underclassmen taking over at every key position.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

A Taste For Week 1

The official kick-off to the Stream's 2014 pillage-the-sportsbooks tour will begin on Monday. But people don't like waiting for winners and if we are being honest I don't blame you guys.  After all, we know what happens to the lines when I make my picks public.

So am I going to wait until Monday to disclose all my picks?  Of course not.  Here is a taste of what we will be betting come Week 1.

I've already whaled on these 7.  The top two are my favorites, followed by the next three.  And I would like a half-point shift in the bottom two but don't see the lines moving that way.

Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St
Kent St (-3) - Ohio U.

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi
North Texas (+24) - Texas
Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

Connecticut (+16.5) - Brigham Young
Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

Check back on Monday for the rest.

Monday, August 18, 2014

UPDATE: First post coming soon

Had a few issues at Mainstream HQ today.  First post will arrive tomorrow.

PS - I'm sorry Keith

Saturday, August 16, 2014

First Picks Coming Next Week

College football is back.  Buckle up.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

See You All Next Fall

2013: 85-52-3 (62.0%)
2012: 104-91-5 (53.3%)
2011: 83-48-4 (63.4%)

If you bet $1,000 on every pick, you would have earned a profit of $56,273.

Monday, January 13, 2014

2014 Season

Thanks to a suggestion by my friend Drew, I'm going to post Season Totals bets next season.  Visit the Stream in August for my +EV plays.

When I'm in Vegas next fall and the sportsbook manager asks if I want to max-bet my Season picks:

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Bowl Games Recap

Winning the first bowl game and improving to 12-1 in my last 13 picks.  Approaching Mount St Helens fire flames heat.

Losing the final two games of the season:

PS - Thanks to Kevin for posting his picks in the comment section all year.  Did he win?  No, definitely not.  But there was zero quit in him.  Zero.

+ Bowl Winners -- 
Utah St (+1.5) - Northern Illinois

+ Bowl Losers -- 
Oklahoma St (+1.5) - Missouri
Georgia Tech (+3) - Mississippi

Last Week: 1-2
Season: 85-52-3 (62.0%)