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Monday, November 17, 2014

Week 13

When I saw that Duke and Stanford were only 6-point favorites this week:

The old saying goes that when it's a rivalry game, throw the records out the window.  Well whoever said that has never seen Cal and North Carolina play defense.  Both give up over 500 yards per game, 125th and 127th in the country.  There are 128 teams.  Disgusting.

+ Week 13 Picks --

1 Unit
Stanford (-6) - California
Duke (-6) - North Carolina
North Texas (-3) - Florida Int'l


Lines: 11/17/2014 11:00am

PS - Strictly based on value, I think these lines will increase and are worth consideration.  Nevada -8.  Utah St -11.5. 
I also like Kansas St +2.5 vs West Virginia but think that line is going up and will wait.

Week 12 Recap

My reaction when Florida State took the lead over Miami in the 4th quarter:

Here’s why college football is such a crazy game and people will always love it.  Last week, LSU took Alabama (the best team in the country) to overtime and arguably should have won the game in regulation.  They were tough, their defense was suffocating, Les Miles was chewing grass.  And this week, well they got rolled by a team that owned a 17-game conference losing streak (longest in the nation) and looked like a high school team trying to run the ball.  36 rushing yards on 32 rushes.  My goodness.

PS – Every fall, the leaves change, the air gets cold, and Oregon State is going to upset a ranked team in Corvallis.  Great win for the Beavers.

+ Week 12 Winners -- 
SMU (+11.5) - South Florida
Florida St (-2) - Miami FL
Tennessee (-7) - Kentucky
Oregon St (+9.5) - Arizona St

+ Week 12 Losers -- 
Idaho (-5) - Troy
LSU (+2.5) - Arkansas
Nevada (+2) - Air Force
Ball St (+3.5) - Massachusetts
Wake Forest (+17) - North Carolina St


Last Week: 4-5
Season: 50-58-1 (46.3%)
Net Units: -6
Win/Loss: $-1218.12

Friday, November 14, 2014

Saturday's Lineup

12pm Ohio St at Minnesota
3:30pm Miss State at Bama (The Verne Lundquist special)
3:30pm Nebraska at Wisconsin
7:15pm Auburn at Georgia (Todd Gurley II returns)
8pm Florida St at Miami

What I will look like all day Saturday.*  Planted in front of the TV.  Non-stop eating.  I'm talking from morning til night.

*Substitute that apple with Chipotle and Pequods and it's a thousand percent accurate.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Thursday Picks

A little line movement yesterday and Wake Forest is up to +17.  I like what Wake is bringing to the table lately.  No they're not even a decent football team but in the last two weeks, they've lost by 6 to Boston College and 14 to Clemson.  Covered both.  And it's not like the Wolfpack are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in Raleigh.  Oh wait...

PS - Hey Ball State
(Witness the LSU fan in the crowd... Subtle)

+ Week 12 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit
Wake Forest (+17) - North Carolina St


Lines: 11/13/2014 12:00pm

Monday, November 10, 2014

Week 12

Trying to predict winners in November:

We’re now into the homestretch of the regular season.  Love my picks this week.  Could go a perfect 8-0.  Hasn’t been done this season or even talked about but I think we’re looking at 8 winners.  Let’s roll.

PS – I know Florida St is a sucker line and the public is betting heavy on the Seminoles.  Well I don’t trust a freshman Miami quarterback in primetime.  Guy is going to fold.

Double PS – Keep an eye out for bad teams who appear to have little to play for other than pride and seem ready to hoist the white flag.  They will often circle one battle as their ‘bowl game’.  This was on display last week as Clemson visited Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are weak and have a remote chance at avoiding a winless ACC campaign.  But if you watched the game on Thursday night, it was readily apparent that Wake was going to fight.  They eventually lost to Clemson but Wake battled the heavily favored Tigers to a first half standstill.  On national TV at home, this was the proverbial bowl game for Wake Forest and covered the spread wire to wire.

+ Week 12 Picks --

1 Unit
SMU (+11.5) - South Florida
Florida St (-2) - Miami FL
Idaho (-5) - Troy
LSU (+2.5) - Arkansas
Tennessee (-7) - Kentucky
Nevada (+2) - Air Force
Ball St (+3.5) - Massachusetts
Oregon St (+9.5) - Arizona St


Lines: 11/10/2014 12:00pm

Week 11 Recap

Just when people forgot about the Stream we put together back to back winning weeks.

Three of the underdogs won outright.  And Florida State would have been a lock to cover if Virginia saved any of their timeouts for the end of the game.  Instead the Noles took knees inside the red zone to run out the clock.

+ Week 11 Winners -- 
Texas A&M (+22) - Auburn
Bowling Green (+7) - Akron
North Texas (+4) - Florida Atlantic

+ Week 11 Losers -- 
Georgia St (+7) - Troy
Florida St (-17.5) - Virginia


Last Week: 3-2
Season: 46-53-1 (46.5%)
Net Units: -5
Win/Loss: $-1081.76

Monday, November 3, 2014

Week 11

Classic slate for the Stream in early November.  Four underdogs and a top-ranked team that isn't getting enough respect.

Fundamentally I wouldn't have a problem betting all underdogs during the final weeks but Virginia has been a dumpster fire over the last month and we'd be dumb not to take advantage.  I'm all in.

+ Week 11 Picks --

1 Unit
Texas A&M (+22) - Auburn
Bowling Green (+7) - Akron
Georgia St (+7) - Troy
Florida St (-17.5) - Virginia
North Texas (+4) - Florida Atlantic


Lines: 11/3/2014 12:00pm

Week 10 Recap

The Stream is back!  Sure the two games with the best value both lost.  UNC dropped down to +14.5 and Stanford closed at +7, and they both turned into duds, but I digress.  The Stream is going to bring it every Saturday for the rest of the year and I wouldn’t be surprised to finish above 50%.

PS - When Pitt missed a chip shot to end the game in regulation and give the Stream a half-point cover:

+ Week 10 Winners -- 
West Virginia (+6) - TCU
Temple (+7.5) - East Carolina
Brigham Young (-4.5) - Middle Tennessee St
Missouri (-6.5) - Kentucky
Duke (+3.5) - Pittsburgh

+ Week 10 Losers -- 
North Carolina (+17) - Miami FL
Stanford (+10) - Oregon


Last Week: 5-2
Season: 43-51-1 (45.7%)
Net Units: -6
Win/Loss: $-1154.49

Friday, October 31, 2014

Week 10 - A Friday Special

How is Duke catching more than a field goal?  I mean this line is just a head scratcher.  Duke is the ranked team.  Duke is playing for an appearance in the ACC Championship game.  Duke’s defense is 5th in the nation.  Duke leads the conference in turnover margin (+8) and Pitt is dead last (-6).  It will be a low-scoring game and Duke has the better kicker.  Duke is 75% against the spread in their last 20 games, Pitt has only covered once in their last 6.

This line sums up everything I need to know about college football this year. I know I’ve already said this a million times, but there just has never been a more unpredictable season in the history of the game.  Never seen anything like it.  If Duke doesn’t win this game outright I am done for the rest of the season.

+ Week 10 Picks --

2 Units
Duke (+3.5) - Pittsburgh

Monday, October 27, 2014

Week 10

2014 continues to be a grind.  For the first time in four years, the Stream is struggling to stay above water.  Yeah there's a lot of variance but oh my does it feel like we're hanging on for dear life.

And even if we're trending in the wrong direction, gotta have that confidence that it's going to turn around this week.  

Now someone get me a stake.

PS - I've bet on the Stanford-Oregon game for the last 15 years and never lost.

+ Week 10 Picks --

1 Unit
North Carolina (+17) - Miami FL
Stanford (+10) - Oregon
West Virginia (+6) - TCU
Temple (+7.5) - East Carolina
Brigham Young (-4.5) - Middle Tennessee St
Missouri (-6.5) - Kentucky


Lines: 10/27/2014 1:00pm