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Monday, October 13, 2014

Week 8

If I've learned anything over the years, it's that the Stream always rebounds after rough weekends.  Expecting a big Saturday.

Love these six early lines.  What I'll look like when these picks go 6-0:


+ Week 8 Picks --

1 Unit
Tulsa (+2) - South Florida
UCLA (-7) - California
Texas A&M (+12) - Alabama
Washington (+21) - Oregon
Bowling Green (-3) - Western Michigan
Appalachian St (+7) - Troy

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Lines: 10/13/2014 11:30am

Week 7 Recap


Duds across the board last week, capped off by VMI scoring a backdoor touchdown with 14 seconds left to cover by 1.  The worst.  My reaction when it happened:


It continues to be a difficult season to handicap, and nowhere is it more apparent than with the two teams in Mississippi.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State rolled again.

Baylor won the wildest game of the day with the greatest comeback in school history. The Bears were down 21 in the 4th quarter and scored 24 straight to win 61-58.

USC got lucky when Arizona missed a field goal at the finish and won 28-26. This is one occasion when freezing the kicker paid off.


+ Week 7 Winners -- 
Iowa St (-3) - Toledo

+ Week 7 Losers -- 
UCLA (+3) - Oregon
North Texas (+6.5) - Alabama-Birmingham
Chattanooga (+26) - Tennessee
Navy (-38) - VMI
Texas-San Antonio (-10) - Florida Int'l

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Last Week: 1-5
Season: 35-42 (45.5%)
Net Units: -5
Win/Loss: $-972.68

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Thursday Picks

Another big-time schedule this weekend.  Top teams squaring off all day.  Auburn (2) vs. Miss St (3).  Ole Miss (3) vs. Texas A&M (14).  TCU (9) vs. Baylor (5).  And don't sleep on Oregon (12) vs. UCLA.  I was wrong about the line move, thinking the public would be heavy on Oregon.  Hopefully the Streamers locked in UCLA +3 earlier in the week.

With that being said I think those big games have accurate lines.  Gotta dig deep to find value this week.

What it feels like when I'm making my bets:



What it feels like watching my picks lose:



+ Week 7 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit
North Texas (+6.5) - Alabama-Birmingham
Chattanooga (+26) - Tennessee
Navy (-38) - VMI
Iowa St (-3) - Toledo
Texas-San Antonio (-10) - Florida Int'l

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Lines: 10/9/2014 11:30am

Monday, October 6, 2014

Week 7

When its Saturday night and my friends point out that one of the Stream's picks just lost:



Only one game on the Monday slate.  The public will be on Oregon and this line may move up to +3.5 if you decide to wait.  The Ducks are only 2-8 ATS in their last ten games (1-4 this year).  I see a close game with the Bruins on saturday and will be taking the points.


+ Week 7 Picks --

1 Unit
UCLA (+3) - Oregon

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Lines: 10/6/2014 12:00pm

Week 6 Recap

One of the craziest Saturdays we’ve seen in a while.  20 favorites lost outright and many others barely hung on.

The wildest game might have been the Stream’s 2-unit play, Cal at Washington State.  The teams traded scores all night and the defenses were virtually non-existent.  Wazzu had the ball last and drove deep into Cal territory.  Instead of going for the TD (and the cover), their chip-shot kick for the win sailed wide right.  Heinous loss.

As for the best finish, it's a no-brainer.  Arizona State beat USC on a hail mary with no time remaining.




+ Week 6 Winners -- 
Georgia Tech (+2) - Miami FL
Rice (-6) - Hawaii
SMU (+40) - East Carolina

+ Week 6 Losers -- 
Washington St (-3) - California
Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Alabama-Birmingham
Florida Atlantic (-6.5) - Florida Int'l

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Last Week: 3-3
Season: 34-37 (47.9%)
Net Units: -1
Win/Loss: $-563.59

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Thursday Picks

Thursday Night Special.  Get ready to grind on a pillow fight tonight.

May have one more for tomorrow.  Have a lean on a big SEC game.


+ Week 6 Picks (Thursday) --
  
1 Unit
Florida Atlantic (-6.5) - Florida Int'l

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Lines: 9/29/2014 1:00pm

Monday, September 29, 2014

Week 6

Need to make a splash this week.  Thinking 5-0.  Some may say this slow start is a cause for concern.  People are probably thinking that the Mainstream has lost its touch.  Well this is the exactly the time that the Stream digs in and delivers.  I legit don't think it's possible that we finish below .500 in back-to-back months.  Not today, not ever.

Now to the games.  Do I think there's value on Michigan +3.5 in Piscataway?




2 Units
Washington St (-3) - California

1 Unit
Georgia Tech (+2) - Miami FL
Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Alabama-Birmingham
Rice (-6) - Hawaii
SMU (+40) - East Carolina

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Lines: 9/29/2014 1:00pm

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Week 5 Recap

Dialed up a few winners and losers on Saturday.  So much value in the Syracuse line to not deliver (Cuse lost by 16).  Some of the Stream's biggest +EV plays this year have been duds.

Bowling Green hung on to beat UMass in a game where both teams went well over 600 yards in total offense. The final Minutemen TD created a potential middle for players who got the optimum numbers on each side that were available during the week.

Ohio State clubbed Cincinnati. The Bearcats got a couple of late first half scores to make this interesting for a bit. But the Buckeyes were way too much, and ended up with some lopsided stat advantages.

Duke flopped in a big spot at Miami. The Blue Devils were gaining lots of believers with their early play, but they got pretty well owned in this one by the ‘Canes. The game was still there for the taking in the fourth quarter with the margin only six, but I never got the sense at any point that Duke would get the win.

Georgia hung on to outlast Tennessee 35-32 in a very exciting game. Todd Gurley ran wild again for the Bulldogs.


+ Week 5 Winners -- 
Ohio State (-14.5) - Cincinnati
Bowling Green (-4.5) - Massachusetts
Vanderbilt (+17) - Kentucky
Rice (-8) - Southern Miss

+ Week 5 Losers -- 
Syracuse (+14) - Notre Dame
SMU (+31) - TCU
Eastern Illinois (+6) - Ohio U.
Duke (+7) - Miami FL

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Last Week: 4-4
Season: 31-34 (47.7%)
Net Units: 0
Win/Loss: $-436.32

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Thursday Picks

When people get behind the Stream's picks after a 9-4 week:


So people are betting big on Michigan this week?  I have no idea why.  The line opened as low as -7 and the train has left the station.  This game is also drawing a ton of discussion in the Stream’s comment section (two posts).

Popular teams as big chalk don’t usually draw in the sharps but that’s not the case this week with Ohio State.   Lots of pro money on the Bucks.

Bowling Green opened as an -11 point favorite and dropped down to -4.5.  I see some value there.  We’ll toss a unit on the Falcons this week.

There is a sharp/square battle in the Big 12 with the pros backing Iowa State. The public is very reluctant to play against monster offenses like Baylor, this line move is all from sharp bets.

(h/t Dave Cokin)



+ Week 5 Picks (Thursday) --

2 Units
Eastern Illinois (+6) - Ohio U.

1 Unit
Bowling Green (-4.5) - Massachusetts
Duke (+7) - Miami FL
Vanderbilt (+17) - Kentucky
Rice (-8) - Southern Miss

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Lines: 9/25/2014 11:00am




PS – I’m keeping my eye on ‘Washington St (+13.5) – Utah’ and ‘Kent St (+27.5) – Virginia.’  If they reach +14 and +28, I’ll lock that number.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Monday Afternoon Update

Breaking News: The Syracuse-ND line is going bananas.  I was analyzing this game at 11:30am when it was +14, now it's all over the board.

Some sharps may be discounting Syracuse because they lost 34-20 to Maryland last week.  They outgained the Terps by 220 yards [589 to 369].

This game will be played at Met Life Stadium and if any team gets a home-field advantage, it's probably the Irish.