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Monday, September 15, 2014

Week 4

When Stream readers see my picks at the end of the week and notice all the lines have moved:

Absolutely love the lineup this week.  Tossing out 7 games early, I think we’ll see some big moves.  Is this the week that the Stream turns it around? 

+ Week 4 Picks --

2 Units
Brigham Young (-15) - Virginia
Appalachian St (+3.5) - Southern Miss
Nebraska (-7) - Miami FL

1 Unit
Indiana (+17) - Missouri
Miami OH (+29) - Cincinnati
Georgia Tech (+7.5) - Virginia Tech
Memphis (-7.5) - Middle Tennessee St


Last Week: 4-6
Season: 18-26 (40.9%)
Net Units: -6
Win/Loss: $-881.79
Lines: 9/15/2014 12:00pm

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Week 3 Recap

This is what many would call a bad run.  The Stream continues to find edge.  It was nice to see two of the double-digit underdogs (Iowa State and Boston College) win outright.  On the other hand, the close losses were brutal.  Penn State and UConn missed covering by a half-point. Old Dominion closed at -20 and the Stream locked it in at -15; so much value.  They won by 14.  Western Kentucky went to Triple OT before missing the cover by two points.  Once the Stream starts finishing on the other side of these coinflips, it’s going to be a big move.

+ Week 3 Winners -- 
Stanford (-28) - Army
Iowa St (+12.5) - Iowa
Georgia St (+12) - Air Force
Boston College (+19.5) - Southern Cal

+ Week 3 Losers -- 
Western Kentucky (+1) - Middle Tennessee St
Penn State (-3.5) - Rutgers
Arkansas St (+17) - Miami FL
Old Dominion (-15) - Eastern Michigan
Vanderbilt (-17) - Massachusetts
Connecticut (+16.5) - Boise St


Last Week: 4-6
Season: 18-26 (40.9%)
Net Units: -6
Win/Loss: $-881.79

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Week 3 - Saturday Special

We have an interesting fact that was discovered by a Stream reader.  The Mainstream's lock of the week [top pick listed] is 16-1 over the last 17 weeks.  Heat check city.

Was away most of this week and wasn't able to post on Thursday.  Got chirped at by many of you.  That being said I'll toss out a Saturday morning special.


When I'm just trying to lay on the couch and watch football today while my girlfriend keeps asking to go to the apple orchard:

+ Week 3 Picks  --

1 Unit
Connecticut (+16.5) - Boise St

Monday, September 8, 2014

Week 3

Watching the games at the bar on Saturday:

Have the first two weeks gone as planned?  Absolutely not.  But now we're here and there are only a couple plays left in the playbook so to speak.  Need a big week.

As an aside, I thought about dropping my current strategy and simply fading Big Ten teams.  Every one.  Seems like that's a 1000% guaranteed move to win money this year.

+ Week 3 Picks --

2 Units
Stanford (-28) - Army

1 Unit
Western Kentucky (+1) - Middle Tennessee St
Penn State (-3.5) - Rutgers
Iowa St (+12.5) - Iowa
Georgia St (+12) - Air Force
Boston College (+19.5) - Southern Cal
Arkansas St (+17) - Miami FL
Old Dominion (-15) - Eastern Michigan
Vanderbilt (-17) - Massachusetts


Last Week: 4-9
Season: 14-20 (41.2%)
Net Units: -5
Win/Loss: $-736.34
Lines: 9/8/2014 12:00pm

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Week 2 Recap

Classic good news bad news situation.  On the positive side, the line moves continued to move in our direction for the second week in a row.   We are getting great value across the board.  On the negative, the games are horrendous.  Heinous efforts from a lot of teams.  Specifically looking at you Vanderbilt.  We lost a few close games early and then when New Mexico State scored a TD with 15 seconds left in their game. 

Overall I’m not overly concerned.  Yeah the short term variance sucks but we are in this for the long con.

PS – On the bright side at least the Mainstream is winning more than the Big Ten. 

+ Week 2 Winners -- 
Wyoming (+2.5) - Air Force
Penn State (-14) - Akron
Utah (-10.5) - Fresno St
Old Dominion (+17) - North Carolina St

+ Week 2 Losers -- 
Ohio State (-10.5) - Virginia Tech
Georgia St (pk) - New Mexico St
Vanderbilt (+20) - Mississippi
Western Kentucky (+6) - Illinois
Texas Tech (-18.5) - UTEP
Duke (-19) - Troy
Kent St (+3) - South Alabama
Towson (+28.5) - West Virginia
South Carolina St (+35) - Clemson

Florida Atlantic (+40.5) - Alabama was cancelled


Last Week: 4-9
Season: 14-20 (41.2%)
Net Units: -5
Win/Loss: $-736.34

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Thursday Picks

Big games on the schedule this Saturday.  Leading the way is the last meeting between Michigan and Notre Dame.  And by leading the way I mean it's the 4th most relevant game in the college football world on saturday, though it will decidedly draw one of the biggest TV ratings of the year.  Hat-tip to that 50-70 age demographic in the midwest.

Fun fact: Michigan is 24-16-1 vs. the Irish with the 8-game difference all accounted for in the first 8 games of the series. (Michigan outscored Notre Dame 121-16 with 5 shutouts).  If we're not counting victories before the wheel was invented, it's been an even back-and-forth rivalry.

In other big games, Michigan State (7) visits Oregon (3), USC (14) visits Stanford (13), and Virginia Tech visits Ohio State (8) in the horseshoe.

[Every stream reader after collecting their Week 2 winnings]

+ Week 2 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit
Old Dominion (+17) - North Carolina St

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Breaking News: More Lines Posted

A rare Wednesday post on the Stream.  Yesterday only 44 of this week's 74 games had lines.  Well 5Dimes just opened lines for the rest.  They tried to catch us sleeping at the end of the workday but nothing gets by the Mainstream.  Head on a swivel at all times.

+ Week 2 Picks (Wednesday) --

2 Units
Towson (+28.5) - West Virginia

1 Unit
South Carolina St (+35) - Clemson

Full post coming tomorrow afternoon.

PS - When Dana Holgorsen realizes his Mountaineers are in a close game with Towson:

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Week 2

My intensity level while scouting the games this week:

It’s a new week and we have the sportsbooks right where we want them.  Oh, it was a subpar week 1?  Perfect.  Now is the time take advantage.  “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”  Sun Tzu, ever heard of him?

Plain and simple, you just can’t stop the Stream every week.  Not possible.  

+ Week 2 Picks --

2 Units
Wyoming (+2.5) - Air Force
Penn State (-14) - Akron

1 Unit
Ohio State (-10.5) - Virginia Tech
Georgia St (pk) - New Mexico St
Vanderbilt (+20) - Mississippi
Western Kentucky (+6) - Illinois
Utah (-10.5) - Fresno St
Texas Tech (-18.5) - UTEP
Florida Atlantic (+40.5) - Alabama
Duke (-19) - Troy
Kent St (+3) - South Alabama


Last Week: 10-11
Season: 10-11 (47.6%)
Net Units: -1
Win/Loss: $-281.80
Lines: 9/2/2014 1:00pm

Week 1 Recap

If there’s anything to take from Week 1, it’s the line movements.  Absurd.  I’m not saying that I’m more confident going into Week 2 after a 10-11 weekend but I am.

The 4-unit bet was such a lock it hurts.  I mean I’m not sure how Georgia Southern lost by a point seeing they were up 10 points with the ball and 6 minutes to go, but it was as easy a cover as you’ll see.

On the other hand I can’t believe the Eastern Michigan line closed at -17, we locked it in at -9, and the Eagles didn’t cover.  In hindsight I probably would have known the bet was doomed the moment Eastern Michigan took the field.  Can’t imagine the hundred fans in Ypsilanti were impressed with this sideshow.

Classic case of overthinking an entrance.  Keep it simple guys.  A little music, some cheerleaders, a flag, it works.  Let’s not reinvent the wheel here.  Skip the concrete next week.

+ Week 1 Winners -- 
Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St
Kansas St (-36.5) - Stephen F. Austin
South Dakota St (+29.5) - Missouri
North Dakota St (+3.5) - Iowa St
Northern Illinois (-41) - Presbyterian
Colorado St (+3) - Colorado
Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts
San Jose St (-23.5) - North Dakota
Wisconsin (+5) - LSU
Montana (+13) - Wyoming

+ Week 1 Losers -- 
Indiana (-23.5) - Indiana St
Cal Poly (-3) - New Mexico St
Eastern Illinois (+15.5) - Minnesota
Eastern Michigan (-9) - Morgan St
William & Mary (+20.5) - Virginia Tech
Kent St (-3) - Ohio U
Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi
North Texas (+24) - Texas
Connecticut (+16.5) - BYU
Jacksonville St (+32) - Michigan St
Washington (-15) - Hawaii


Last Week: 10-11
Season: 10-11 (47.6%)
Net Units: -1
Win/Loss: $-281.80

Monday, September 1, 2014

Recap and Week 2 Picks

Watching everything play out over the weekend and losing close games where we had a huge edge.

With Labor Day, the recap and Week 2 Picks will come tomorrow afternoon.  Everyone have a great holiday and enjoy their last taste of summer.