Watching Buffalo take a 20-0 lead en route to their first road win of the season:
OK, the line for Penn State did not rise. At all. I mean it even dropped to +13 for a minute. But that's neither here nor there. Here's what I know. The Spartans have not been held below 35 points since Oct. 4 against Nebraska. The over/under is 45 and it's going to be a low scoring game. The Spartans are getting a ton of public money. It's a total mystery. I wouldn't recommend betting on Penn State, but I wouldn't recommend not betting on them either. Either way, I need a mid-afternoon grind tomorrow.
Virginia and Buffalo are road favorites. Virginia and Buffalo are both 0-4 on the road. Give me the home dogs. One time.
+ Week 14 Picks --
Virginia Tech (+1.5)
Massachusetts (+2) -
Lines: 11/24/2014 11:00am
PS – Will be betting Penn State this week against Sparty.Just
waiting for the line to rise, then will attack.(Currently +13.5) Double PS – Do any of my Sparty friends like it when I pick against MSU on the Stream?
Watching UNC play their best game this year when I bet against them:
Outside of Duke getting pillaged by their rival North Carolina, it was almost a special week. Stanford covered easily. The Stream liked Kansas State but the line never reached +3 and we missed that opportunity. We also predicted the Utah St line (-11.5) to increase and considered betting the Aggies as a value play. Well the line closed at -14.5 and Utah St proceeded to win by 34 points.
Coming up on rivalry week for a lot of teams. Need to finish strong.
When I saw that Duke and Stanford were only 6-point favorites this week:
The old saying goes that when it's a rivalry game, throw the records out the window. Well whoever said that has never seen Cal and North Carolina play defense. Both give up over 500 yards per game, 125th and 127th in the country. There are 128 teams. Disgusting.
+ Week 13 Picks --
Stanford (-6) -
Duke (-6) -
North Texas (-3) -
Lines: 11/17/2014 11:00am
PS - Strictly based on value, I think these lines will increase and are worth consideration. Nevada -8.
Utah St -11.5.
I also like Kansas St +2.5 vs West Virginia but
think that line is going up and will wait.
My reaction when Florida State took the lead over Miami in the 4th quarter:
Here’s why college football is such a crazy game
and people will always love it. Last
week, LSU took Alabama (the best team in the country) to overtime and arguably
should have won the game in regulation.
They were tough, their defense was suffocating, Les Miles was chewing
grass. And this week, well they got
rolled by a team that owned a 17-game conference losing streak (longest in the
nation) and looked like a high school team trying to run the ball. 36 rushing yards on 32 rushes. My goodness.
PS – Every fall, the leaves change, the air gets
cold, and Oregon State is going to upset a ranked team in Corvallis. Great win for the Beavers.
A little line movement yesterday and Wake Forest is up to +17. I like what Wake is bringing to the table lately. No they're not even a decent football team but in the last two weeks, they've lost by 6 to Boston College and 14 to Clemson. Covered both. And it's not like the Wolfpack are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in Raleigh. Oh wait...
PS - Hey Ball State (Witness the LSU fan in the crowd... Subtle)
We’re now into the homestretch of the regular
season. Love my picks this week. Could go a perfect 8-0. Hasn’t been done this season or even talked
about but I think we’re looking at 8 winners.
PS – I know Florida St is a sucker line and the
public is betting heavy on the Seminoles.
Well I don’t trust a freshman Miami quarterback in primetime. Guy is going to fold.
Double PS – Keep an eye out for bad teams who
appear to have little to play for other than pride and seem ready to hoist the
white flag. They will often circle one
battle as their ‘bowl game’. This was on
display last week as Clemson visited Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are weak and have a remote
chance at avoiding a winless ACC campaign. But if you watched the game on Thursday night,
it was readily apparent that Wake was going to fight. They eventually lost to Clemson but Wake battled
the heavily favored Tigers to a first half standstill. On national TV at home, this was the
proverbial bowl game for Wake Forest and covered the spread wire to wire.
Just when people forgot about the Stream we put
together back to back winning weeks.
Three of the underdogs won outright. And Florida State would have been a lock to
cover if Virginia saved any of their timeouts for the end of the game. Instead the Noles took knees inside the red
zone to run out the clock.