If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times, always bet on Urban Meyer when he's an underdog. I mean everyone knew that his team would come to play in the Big Ten championship and Cardale Jones would sling it all over the field. Now the question has to be asked, does Ohio State cover against Bama or do the Buckeyes win outright?
In a first for the Stream, my algorithm found no value on a college football Saturday. In the model's view, the lines are priced correctly across the board.
With that said I have a slight lean in two games, and by slight lean I mean that I will be getting aggressive at the sportsbook. My gut feeling is that Florida State and Wisconsin both cover.
With Georgia Tech losing their best receiver, I think they become one-dimensional and FSU's defense shuts them down. DeAndre Smelter had 715 receiving yards for the Yellow Jackets this year. The next closest was Darren Waller with 255. That's for the year. The entire year. It pains me to bet against Zach Laskey, I mean the guy is just a touchdown machine (9 total TDs this year), but this is business.
With Ohio State, first thing's first. Cardale Jones can't pass. Cardale Jones can't run. The question mark is how much of an impact Jalin Marshall will have on the game. Either way, there's the chance that the Buckeyes offense just implodes and if that happens, I want to be on the other side.
The Stream's performance this year summarized in one gif:
Some interesting games on the slate this weekend. How will Ohio State's offense look without JT Barrett? Will Oregon look to make a statement after getting embarrassed by Arizona the last two years? Should the line in the SEC title game really be 14.5 points?
Saturday was exactly why you don't mess with college football in November. I woke up on Saturday thinking all of my calculated plays were going to go undefeated. Before I know it, up is down, down is up and I can't make sense of anything. I mean look at the Michigan - Ohio State game. Gardner's first pass of the game sails right into the hands of an OSU safety, Vonn Bell. Unrelated but kinda related, it may have been Bell's second best catch of the game.
Anyways, OSU scores a few plays later. I got 75 texts from friends all saying the same thing... This is going to be a blowout!!! Fast forward and the game has turned into a battle. If not for a few coaching blunders by Hoke, Michigan would be leading in the 3rd quarter and there's no chance OSU covers the 21 points. Oh wait, the Buckeyes score two touchdowns in 50 seconds and now lead 42-21. But there's still a few minutes left and yep, Michigan backdoors the cover with a minute to go. Vintage November football. Almost impossible to predict.
Watching Buffalo take a 20-0 lead en route to their first road win of the season:
OK, the line for Penn State did not rise. At all. I mean it even dropped to +13 for a minute. But that's neither here nor there. Here's what I know. The Spartans have not been held below 35 points since Oct. 4 against Nebraska. The over/under is 45 and it's going to be a low scoring game. The Spartans are getting a ton of public money. It's a total mystery. I wouldn't recommend betting on Penn State, but I wouldn't recommend not betting on them either. Either way, I need a mid-afternoon grind tomorrow.
Virginia and Buffalo are road favorites. Virginia and Buffalo are both 0-4 on the road. Give me the home dogs. One time.
+ Week 14 Picks --
Virginia Tech (+1.5)
Massachusetts (+2) -
Lines: 11/24/2014 11:00am
PS – Will be betting Penn State this week against Sparty.Just
waiting for the line to rise, then will attack.(Currently +13.5) Double PS – Do any of my Sparty friends like it when I pick against MSU on the Stream?
Watching UNC play their best game this year when I bet against them:
Outside of Duke getting pillaged by their rival North Carolina, it was almost a special week. Stanford covered easily. The Stream liked Kansas State but the line never reached +3 and we missed that opportunity. We also predicted the Utah St line (-11.5) to increase and considered betting the Aggies as a value play. Well the line closed at -14.5 and Utah St proceeded to win by 34 points.
Coming up on rivalry week for a lot of teams. Need to finish strong.