Like I said, the SEC is far too predictable. If Ole Miss doesn't keep their starters in to run up the score and drop 21 second half points on a very weak NMSU, I have a perfect week. Ole Miss does what Ole Miss does best and smokes bad teams in the second half instead of shutting down and not showing any new offense. Nonetheless, these past two weeks show my metamorphosis into a good selector and I expect this to continue the rest of the season now that I have watched enough football.
+ Lasko’s Winners --
Toledo (-16) - Kent State
Notre Dame (-14) - Navy
+ Lasko’s Losers --
Syracuse (+4) - South Florida
Texas State (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette
Under 72 - SMU vs. Houston
Kevin and Couch combined for an 8-1 record on saturday. Way to carry the Stream, boys.
The largest underdogs to win straight up:
Washington (+17) at USC, 17-12
Washington State (+15.5) at Oregon, 45-38 (2OT)
The largest favorites to cover:
Baylor (-46) at Kansas, 66-7
Mississippi (-46) vs. New Mexico State, 52-3
The biggest upset on Saturday came in the Red River Rivalry Shootout at the Cotton Bowl as Texas (+15) upended Oklahoma to save the job of Charlie Strong for now.
In less fortunate news, it sounds like Bevo is on his deathbed. Nice to see the players rally for Bevo. #prayforbevo
In the state of Michigan, the Wolverines blanked Northwestern 38-0 after the Wildcats had allowed a total of 35 points through their first five games. Michigan has now posted three straight shutouts. MSU beat Rutgers by 7. Some thought the Scarlet Knights might have a chance at the end of the game on a 4th down hail mary, but their QB spiked the ball instead.
An interesting strategy.
Notre Dame rebounded with a 41-24 win against Navy to move to 4-0 SU/ATS in South Bend. The Irish have also covered four straight games since their only non-cover of the season at Virginia back on Sept. 12. The Irish will host USC next Saturday.
Wake Forest snuck past Boston College 3-0 in Chestnut Hill, as the Under is a perfect 5-for-5 for the Eagles.
In Bad Beats this week....
Anyone who had the 'over' in Baylor-Kansas (76.5) felt like they were in great shape with the Bears ahead 66-7 after three quarters. But a sure over turned into a losing ticket with a scoreless quarter. Through five games Baylor has played the 117th, 121st, 123rd, and 124th best defenses out of 128 FBS teams, and an FCS school.
If you had the 'under' (71) in Washington State-Oregon, you hated Washington State's game-tying touchdown with :01 left in regulation to force overtime, 31-31. Still the game could have still ended favorably, but the two teams exchanged touchdowns in the first overtime to push the total over. It was a rough beating in the late-night game.
Texas State (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette Under 72 - SMU vs. Houston
Line moves this week:
Kent State is generating purchases from the wise guys, and this game could be a bit of a pros/joes battleground with the public siding on Toledo so far. I absolutely hate seeing this.
Baylor is getting loads of square love but there is no objection from the sharps.
Nebraska is still a small favorite against Wisco despite a considerable volume edge on Badgers.
PS - Streamers are anxiously waiting for Fred to return to the comment section after a 4-2 posting last week, not to mention cashing on his Lock of the Millennium.
Double PS - If Michigan and MSU both win by their spread this saturday, the Wolverines will be favored by 7 to 10 points the following weekend in Ann Arbor.
Nothing more exciting than holding an "over" ticket on the highest total in history, and it cashing 2 minutes into the 4th quarter. Since the start of the 3pm games last week I am 2-0, lady luck is starting to go my way.
Maryland -15.5 - L
Texas Tech/Baylor over 89.5- W
Kansas St +9.5- Two things you should know. TCU's margin of victory away from home (@ Min, @ Texas Tech) is a 4.5 points (9 total points, less than the spread). Plus they are going against the master of covering, Bill Snyder.
Arkansas +17- Haven't lost by more than 7 on the road this year and catching Alabama after a big victory in Athens. Arkansas should have won this game last year but lost 14-13. I expect a 10 point game in this one.
Michigan/NW over35- All the numbers say bet the under. Michigan with 2 straight shutouts. Northwestern shuts out Minnesota last week. However, this is the lowest total I have seen all year and it will take one crazy play to take this over 35. Think about this, if this score of this game is 21-17, you have a losing ticket. Don't be holding that ticket.
Central Michigan +7.5- CMU would be the 10th best team in the Big Ten. Western would be the 11th. You are getting more than a TD for a better team. Take it, crush it.
This week, I see huge value (same as last week) on betting SEC games. The SEC is really a fable at this point. It's all perception....and ESPN's perception. It is still only slightly the best conference and a few teams (Bama, LSU, and possibly Florida) really do look the part. Anyone else, no matter the ranking, is HIGHLY overrated and tend to get large public bets. Thus, I'm only picking SEC games this week. Free money betting me this week.
My journey to the top so far:
When I get asked how my picks went Saturday night:
+ Lasko’s Losers --
Appalachian State (-23) - Wyoming
Colorado (+9.5) - Oregon
Over 53.5 - Marshall vs. Old Dominion
For those keeping score at home, that's 1-4 on over/under bets, and it took a miracle to land that one win. When do we start fading?
The largest underdog to win straight up:
Arizona State (+13, ML +400) at UCLA, 38-23
The largest favorite to cover:
Boise State (-27.5) vs. Hawaii, 55-0
It was a topsy-turvy day for the Top 25, as several big teams fell on this first Saturday of October. Bad weather affected games from coast to coast, mostly keeping scores way down.
In the state of Michigan, UofM pitched its second straight shutout, topping Maryland 28-0, and they have now allowed just 7 points in the last 15 quarters. The under is a perfect 5-0 for the Wolverines this season. MSU had to hang on tight at home in front of a sellout crowd, narrowly escaping 24-21 against Purdue. The Spartans are now 0-5 ATS.
Ohio State turned in their fourth straight mediocre performance. They survived at previously unbeaten Indiana, 34-27, but have yet to wow anyone. That's four straight non-covers and unders heading into next weekend's game against Maryland. If you want to look at the positives, the Buckeyes' fans still have faith in Cardale....
Baylor-Texas Tech had a total set an at unheard of 90, and they easily eclipsed it as predicted by Couch on wednesday. The over is 4-0 for Baylor and 4-1 for Texas Tech this season.
In Bad Beats this week....
The Alabama-Georgia game had a total of 48 points after three quarters, just three points short of the total. After a scoreless fourth quarter 'over' bettors were left shaking their heads. We also had Verne show us how to wear a chinstrap.
If you had under 61 in the Arizona-UCLA game, you were likely cursing at the TV with :45 left when Arizona State cracked off a 23-yard touchdown run to seal their stunning 38-23 road victory.
Notre Dame was down 21-3 heading to the fourth quarter, but the Irish outscored the Tigers 19-3 in a driving rain. The Irish had a chance to tie with :07 left in regulation but they failed on the two-point conversion. ND still earned the backdoor cover to kill Clemson side bettors who were winning for the first 59:53.
Think Dabo cares his team almost blew a huge lead?
Last Week 1-2
L- Illinois/MTSU Over
W- Vandy +24
I take solace in the fact that if you had picked one streamer to tail this year I would have lost you the least amount of money.
This Weeks Picks:
Iowa +6.5 v Wisconsin
Central Michigan +2 v Northern Illinois
Duke -6.5 v Boston College
Air Force +5.5 v Navy
Georgia +2 v Alabama
Here are my real picks
Texas Tech/Baylor Over 89.5- 94, 97, 97 and 88. Those are the last 4 year totals for this game. 56 is Baylor's lowest scoring game and Texas Tech is 35, That is 91 right there. I will be surprised if there is a stop in this game.
MSU -21.5- MSU is 0-3 ATS this year. They have only beaten Purdue by 14 the past 2 seasons. So why am I taking them? Because Purdue is 1-6 in their past 7 games ATS and is by far the easiest opponent for MSU this season. MSU has faced 4 bowl teams from last year and are facing Purdue's backup QB this year. I see a 34-10 type finish to this one.
Oregon -7.5- Before the season started this game Oregon was a 27 point favorite. I think the hate for Oregon has swung a bit to far. Colorado is still a horrendous football team. I might wait til Sat morning because you might get this to come down to 7.
Bonus: Maryland +15.5- I wasn't going to post this one but the more I thought about it the more I like. Maryland is atrocious. Just got ran off the field by WVU. Michigan just blew the doors off BYU and now everyone is talking about them and public pouring $ on them. However, 8pm start @ Maryland with Michigan players starting to get a little cocky and won't take this as serious as they should. UM wins this game but it will come down to the 4th quarter.
Everything went according to plan for everyone in the Top 10. It almost wasn't the case, as TCU needed late heroics to hold off Texas Tech in a shootout, 55-52. After TCU managed to win in the closing seconds, that pushed the Top 10 teams to a 9-0 SU record, although they were just 3-6 ATS. The only Top 10 teams to cover were Baylor (-33 vs. Rice), Notre Dame (-28.5) vs. Massachusetts and UCLA (-1) at Arizona. One of the most shocking results of the weekend came in Eugene. What appeared to be one of the better matchups on paper coming in turned into be anything but that. Utah (+10, ML +300) turned it on in the second quarter, and then ran away with a 28-point third-quarter blitzkreig to stun Oregon and the Pac-12 and serve notice to the rest of the conference that the Utes are for real.
In the state of Michigan, the Wolverines beat No. 22 BYU 31-0. The game featured an Odell-Beckham-like catch....
....and Deveon Smith teleporting....
In East Lansing, Central Michigan put up a good fight against Michigan State before the No. 2 Spartans pulled away for a 30-10 win. Still, the Chips fired up for their fourth cover in as many tries.
As predicted by 2 of the experts on the Mainstream, Ole Miss had a bit of a hangover, getting all they could handle from a sturdy defensive club from Vanderbilt. Ole Miss had 43 or more points in each of their first three games, all covers and overs, but the Rebs managed just 27 points and never threatened to cover the 27-point number.
Tennessee bettors were stunned when Florida struck for a 63-yard touchdown pass with just 1:26 remaining in regulation to give the Gators their 11th straight win over the Volunteers. 'Under' (50.5) bettors were also crushed on the very same play, as the game finished with 55 points.
And finally, we have Texas' special teams doing Texas' special teams things...
Keep your eye on LSU - Syracuse this weekend. LSU fans invade upstate New York as the Tigers head to the Carrier Dome. Early 12pm start. So naturally the LSU alumni association has gone on record and notified Syracuse that they are coming, and they plan to drink the town dry. That’s their chief concern -- That Syracuse won’t have enough liquor for them this weekend. Forget accommodations, hotel space, travel around the city, activities, safety…. “They might meet their alcohol budget for the year.”
The SEC difference
Line moves this week:
Michigan has attracted some pro money, while the amateurs are again taking BYU. As far as the Cougars are concerned, the square action has been collecting all season.
Connecticut was hit hard early and the Huskies continue to get play. That game has already dropped through the key number of 7.
0-5? 0-5? Are you serious Clark? Thought this was an easy game until last week. Had a bad feeling after watching Boston College struggle to get first downs after scoring 76 the week before. My picks felt like the Auburn defense this week.
This dude must have tailed all my picks...
I promise you one thing. A lot of good will come out of this. You will never see any Streamer in the entire country grind as hard as I will grind the rest of the season. You will never see someone push the rest of the Stream as hard as I will push everybody the rest of the season. You will never see me grind harder than I will the rest of the season.
All Losses- Don't even want to see them.
This Week: (got greedy with 5 last week, going back to 3 picks.)
TCU -7 - I mean I know TT just beat a vaunted SEC team but TCU only giving 7 points is ridiculous.
Vandy +24.5- Classic trap game for Ole Miss coming home after beating Alabama. Reminder: it took Ole Miss 2 turnovers off of kick off returns and 3 others from Alabama to beat them by 6 points. Think about that, winning the turnover margin 5-0 and only winning by 6 points. Team is not as good as advertised. Don’t tell ESPN that though.*
*Side Note: Ole Miss went from #15 to #3 this week after that win. If you don’t think there is any bias, ask yourself this, if #17 Northwestern were to go into #2MSU or #1OSU and beat them by 6 points, what do you think their ranking would be? Sure as heck not #3.
MTSU @ Illinois O 61.5- Remember this is the Illinois team that feasted on weaker foes to the tune of 48ppg before running into UNC. MTSU has broken 70 points twice this year. Both teams will break 30 this game.
Who will I be this week, the 3-0 or the 0-5? We will find out!
Finalizing my 3-2 week: Not satisfied. Not upset. Still expect better.
Week three was OK. Three wins that I expected. The other two still seem like good picks to me: South Carolina getting 17 points against their semi-rival that treats them as an afterthought and Georgia Tech who looked like a playoff dark horse and going against a team rebuilding after their QB was knocked out, giving 2.5 points. Obviously, ND rebuilt quicker than expected with their backup and South Carolina is HORRENDOUS. With three weeks behind us, I have watched enough football to feel confident going forward. My climb to the top of the rankings:
Kevin's Week Three Picks and Results
W - Air Force (+26.5) over Michigan State
W - Tulsa (+30) over Oklahoma
L - South Carolina (+17) over Georgia
W - BYU (+16.5) over UCLA
L - Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Notre Dame (Lock of Week)
Kevin's 2015 Record Overall - 5-10 (33%) Last Week - 3-2 (60%) Lock of Week - 1-2 (33%)
Kevin's Week Four Picks
Georgia Tech (-9.5) over Duke Boston College (-4) over Northern Illinois Ohio State (-31) over Western Michigan Vanderbilt (+24.5) over Mississippi Massachusetts (+27.5) over Notre Dame (LOW)
Washington (+5) - Cal Appalachian State (-7.5) - Old Dominion Rice (+35.5) - Baylor Missouri (+2.5) - Kentucky Virginia Tech (-8) - East Carolina
Last Week: 2-4 Season: 7-10 (41.2%) Career: 333-265-14 (55.7%)
Washington (+5) - Cal: Cal blew all but 1 point of a 21-point lead in the 4th quarter last Saturday at Texas. Meanwhile, Washington was handling a pretty good Utah State team 31-17. Cal gets the advantage on offense, but Washington has the clear statistical advantage on defense.
Missouri (+2.5) - Kentucky: Both teams managed to scored a whopping 9 points last week. Mizzou won 9-6 over lowly UConn at home, while Kentucky lost 14-9 at Florida. After those outings, the Wildcats 103rd in total offense and the Tigers rank 116th.
+ Lasko’s Losers -- Illinois (+10.5) - North Carolina Kansas State (-9) - Louisiana Tech Boston College (+9) - Florida State Over 54.5 - Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
What a Saturday. Bloodbath. Sometimes you just have to be a man and take your medicine. I mean this was almost sad. Like watching Larry Holmes basically murder Muhammad Ali in the ring. When Kevin is posting winners and I am digging myself into an ever deeper hole.... #prayformybankaccount
The largest underdog to win straight up:
Furman (+24.5, ML +1565) at UCF, 16-15
The largest favorite to cover:
Mississippi State (-38.5) vs. Northwestern State, 62-13
After a couple of weeks with few upsets to the top teams, it was topsy-turvy Saturday from coast to coast, and it almost came to the doorstep of the national champs. Ohio State entered their game as a 34 1/2 point favorite, but they had to hang on for dear life against Northern Illinois, 20-13.
In the state of Michigan, the Wolverines and Spartans took care of business. MSU is now #2 in the AP poll and their fans are stoked.
Alabama wasn't as lucky in their SEC opener against Mississippi. Ole Miss fired ahead 30-13 before a spirited comeback by the Tide. After some late scores, an onside kick and some questionable clock management by Hugh Freeze and company, the Rebels were able to notch their second straight victory against the Tide.
Just cancel it.
It wasn't quite shades of 2007 for Southern California, but Stanford paid a visit as a 10-point underdog and came out of the Coliseum with a victory. USC looked like one of the most complete teams, but facing Arkansas State and Idaho is obviously quite different than a conference foe. ... Missouri was a three-touchdown favorite against Connecticut, but fell behind 6-2 at halftime before eeking out a 9-6 win. ... In a battle of Top 15 teams it was LSU pulling away from Auburn, 45-21. The Tigers probably should have lost last week to FCS Jacksonville State, outlasting them in overtime. In this battle of Tigers they weren't even in the same class.
In the bad beat department, there are all kinds of things wrong with the California-Texas game. For anyone who took a chance on Texas on the moneyline, it was an excruciating game. First off, Cal fired out to a 45-24 lead heading into the fourth quarter. ML bettors likely wrote the game off, but they were given hope when Texas rallied to make it 45-44 with 71 seconds remaining in regulation. However, a missed extra point meant a win for Cal, and it was almost like losing twice if you have the Longhorns on the moneyline. The 20-point fourth quarter was also a bad beat for Cal bettors who laid the five.
Lot of chirping from friends today about the BC-FSU line. Listen, this is all about timing. You had a 6 hour window yesterday to lock in +9. I mean you can check the line history on multiple betting sites at Covers. Read a book for me one time.
What I look like on saturday when I'm grinding a MAC game on gamecast, constantly refreshing, and losing all hope of a cover...
+ Lasko’s Week 3 Picks --
Boston College (+9) - Florida State UMass (+10.5) - Temple Over 54.5 - Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Adding a few home dogs to the lineup.
Let’s start with FSU at BC -- A Friday night special. This number jumped from +7.5 to +9 today. FSU was a 16.5-point favorite last year and kicked a field goal with three seconds left to escape with a 20-17 victory. Expect another close game this year.
Now as for UMass, I'm doing something that I don't thing has ever been done on the Stream. I'm going against the model. Everything points to Temple winning this game big. The model loves Temple. The public loves Temple. Couch loves Temple. The Owls are off to a hot start. And yet the line has dropped from +12.5 to +10.5 (still just above a key number). Someone knows something and I'm jumping on board.
Line moves this week:
Love the action from our bets on Monday. Every game -- Illinois, Memphis, Kansas State -- moving 1 or 1.5 points in our direction and crossing key numbers. We have a special weekend in the works.
Georgia Tech has been bet heavily by the public.
California was a big early play. The line opened at Texas +3.5 and moved quickly to +7. Sharps found a soft number and hit it immediately.
UCLA-BYU is a sharp/square battleground. The sharps are on UCLA while the public likes the dog.