Bowl Games

Update on the Stream's climb to 50%:

If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times, always bet on Urban Meyer when he's an underdog.  I mean everyone knew that his team would come to play in the Big Ten championship and Cardale Jones would sling it all over the field.  Now the question has to be asked, does Ohio State cover against Bama or do the Buckeyes win outright?

+ Bowl Picks --

1 Unit

Ohio State (+9.5) - Alabama

Florida St (+9.5) - Oregon

South Carolina (+4) - Miami FL

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Lines: 12/16/2014 8:00pm

Week 15 Recap

Well....

+ Week 15 Winners -- 

+ Week 15 Losers -- 

Florida St (-3.5) - Georgia Tech

Wisconsin (+4) - Ohio St

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Last Week: 0-2

Season: 52-63-2 (45.2%)

Net Units: -9

Win/Loss: $-1536.30

Week 15 Picks

In a first for the Stream, my algorithm found no value on a college football Saturday.  In the model's view, the lines are priced correctly across the board.

With that said I have a slight lean in two games, and by slight lean I mean that I will be getting aggressive at the sportsbook.  My gut feeling is that Florida State and Wisconsin both cover.

With Georgia Tech losing their best receiver, I think they become one-dimensional and FSU's defense shuts them down.  DeAndre Smelter had 715 receiving yards for the Yellow Jackets this year.  The next closest was Darren Waller with 255.  That's for the year.  The entire year.  It pains me to bet against Zach Laskey, I mean the guy is just a touchdown machine (9 total TDs this year), but this is business.

FSU -3.5

With Ohio State, first thing's first.  Cardale Jones can't pass.  Cardale Jones can't run.  The question mark is how much of an impact Jalin Marshall will have on the game.  Either way, there's the chance that the Buckeyes offense just implodes and if that happens, I want to be on the other side.

Wisconsin -4

Week 15 - Championship Week

The Stream's performance this year summarized in one gif:

Some interesting games on the slate this weekend.  How will Ohio State's offense look without JT Barrett?  Will Oregon look to make a statement after getting embarrassed by Arizona the last two years?  Should the line in the SEC title game really be 14.5 points?

Check back on Thursday.

Week 14 Recap

Saturday was exactly why you don't mess with college football in November.  I woke up on Saturday thinking all of my calculated plays were going to go undefeated.  Before I know it, up is down, down is up and I can't make sense of anything.  I mean look at the Michigan - Ohio State game.  Gardner's first pass of the game sails right into the hands of an OSU safety, Vonn Bell.  Unrelated but kinda related, it may have been Bell's second best catch of the game.

Anyways, OSU scores a few plays later.  I got 75 texts from friends all saying the same thing... This is going to be a blowout!!!  Fast forward and the game has turned into a battle.  If not for a few coaching blunders by Hoke, Michigan would be leading in the 3rd quarter and there's no chance OSU covers the 21 points.  Oh wait, the Buckeyes score two touchdowns in 50 seconds and now lead 42-21.  But there's still a few minutes left and yep, Michigan backdoors the cover with a minute to go.  Vintage November football.  Almost impossible to predict.

+ Week 14 Winners -- 

Virginia Tech (+1.5) - Virginia

+ Week 14 Losers -- 

Massachusetts (+2) - Buffalo

Penn State (+13.5) - Michigan St

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Last Week: 1-2

Season: 52-61-2 (46.0%)

Net Units: -7

Win/Loss: $-1336.30

PS - Hey Coach Hoke,

Rivalry Week

Rivalry games on top of rivalry games. All day.

Let's take a look at my plans for the next 12 hours:

Thursday Picks

Watching Buffalo take a 20-0 lead en route to their first road win of the season:

OK, the line for Penn State did not rise.  At all.  I mean it even dropped to +13 for a minute.  But that's neither here nor there.  Here's what I know.  The Spartans have not been held below 35 points since Oct. 4 against Nebraska.  The over/under is 45 and it's going to be a low scoring game.  The Spartans are getting a ton of public money.   It's a total mystery.  I wouldn't recommend betting on Penn State, but I wouldn't recommend not betting on them either.  Either way, I need a mid-afternoon grind tomorrow.

+ Week 14 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Penn State (+13.5) - Michigan St

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Lines: 11/27/2014 12:00pm

Week 14

Virginia and Buffalo are road favorites.  Virginia and Buffalo are both 0-4 on the road.  Give me the home dogs.  One time.

+ Week 14 Picks --

1 Unit

Virginia Tech (+1.5) - Virginia

Massachusetts (+2) - Buffalo

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Lines: 11/24/2014 11:00am

PS – Will be betting Penn State this week against Sparty.  Just waiting for the line to rise, then will attack.  (Currently +13.5)

Double PS – Do any of my Sparty friends like it when I pick against MSU on the Stream?

Week 13 Recap

Watching UNC play their best game this year when I bet against them:

Outside of Duke getting pillaged by their rival North Carolina, it was almost a special week.  Stanford covered easily.  The Stream liked Kansas State but the line never reached +3 and we missed that opportunity.  We also predicted the Utah St line (-11.5) to increase and considered betting the Aggies as a value play.  Well the line closed at -14.5 and Utah St proceeded to win by 34 points.  

Coming up on rivalry week for a lot of teams.  Need to finish strong.

+ Week 13 Winners -- 

Stanford (-6) - California

+ Week 13 Losers -- 

Duke (-6) - North Carolina

+ Push -- 

North Texas (-3) - Florida Int'l

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Last Week: 1-1-1

Season: 51-59-2 (46.4%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-1227.21

Week 13

When I saw that Duke and Stanford were only 6-point favorites this week:

The old saying goes that when it's a rivalry game, throw the records out the window.  Well whoever said that has never seen Cal and North Carolina play defense.  Both give up over 500 yards per game, 125th and 127th in the country.  There are 128 teams.  Disgusting.

+ Week 13 Picks --

1 Unit

Stanford (-6) - California

Duke (-6) - North Carolina

North Texas (-3) - Florida Int'l

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Lines: 11/17/2014 11:00am

PS - Strictly based on value, I think these lines will increase and are worth consideration.  Nevada -8.  Utah St -11.5. 

I also like Kansas St +2.5 vs West Virginia but think that line is going up and will wait.

Week 12 Recap

My reaction when Florida State took the lead over Miami in the 4th quarter:

Here’s why college football is such a crazy game and people will always love it.  Last week, LSU took Alabama (the best team in the country) to overtime and arguably should have won the game in regulation.  They were tough, their defense was suffocating, Les Miles was chewing grass.  And this week, well they got rolled by a team that owned a 17-game conference losing streak (longest in the nation) and looked like a high school team trying to run the ball.  36 rushing yards on 32 rushes.  My goodness.

PS – Every fall, the leaves change, the air gets cold, and Oregon State is going to upset a ranked team in Corvallis.  Great win for the Beavers.

+ Week 12 Winners -- 

SMU (+11.5) - South Florida

Florida St (-2) - Miami FL

Tennessee (-7) - Kentucky

Oregon St (+9.5) - Arizona St

+ Week 12 Losers -- 

Idaho (-5) - Troy

LSU (+2.5) - Arkansas

Nevada (+2) - Air Force

Ball St (+3.5) - Massachusetts

Wake Forest (+17) - North Carolina St

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Last Week: 4-5

Season: 50-58-1 (46.3%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-1218.12

Saturday's Lineup

12pm Ohio St at Minnesota
3:30pm Miss State at Bama (The Verne Lundquist special)
3:30pm Nebraska at Wisconsin
7:15pm Auburn at Georgia (Todd Gurley II returns)
8pm Florida St at Miami

What I will look like all day Saturday.*  Planted in front of the TV.  Non-stop eating.  I'm talking from morning til night.

*Substitute that apple with Chipotle and Pequods and it's a thousand percent accurate.

Thursday Picks

A little line movement yesterday and Wake Forest is up to +17.  I like what Wake is bringing to the table lately.  No they're not even a decent football team but in the last two weeks, they've lost by 6 to Boston College and 14 to Clemson.  Covered both.  And it's not like the Wolfpack are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in Raleigh.  Oh wait...

PS - Hey Ball State
(Witness the LSU fan in the crowd... Subtle)

+ Week 12 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Wake Forest (+17) - North Carolina St

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Lines: 11/13/2014 12:00pm

Week 12

Trying to predict winners in November:

We’re now into the homestretch of the regular season.  Love my picks this week.  Could go a perfect 8-0.  Hasn’t been done this season or even talked about but I think we’re looking at 8 winners.  Let’s roll.

PS – I know Florida St is a sucker line and the public is betting heavy on the Seminoles.  Well I don’t trust a freshman Miami quarterback in primetime.  Guy is going to fold.

Double PS – Keep an eye out for bad teams who appear to have little to play for other than pride and seem ready to hoist the white flag.  They will often circle one battle as their ‘bowl game’.  This was on display last week as Clemson visited Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are weak and have a remote chance at avoiding a winless ACC campaign.  But if you watched the game on Thursday night, it was readily apparent that Wake was going to fight.  They eventually lost to Clemson but Wake battled the heavily favored Tigers to a first half standstill.  On national TV at home, this was the proverbial bowl game for Wake Forest and covered the spread wire to wire.

+ Week 12 Picks --

1 Unit

SMU (+11.5) - South Florida

Florida St (-2) - Miami FL

Idaho (-5) - Troy

LSU (+2.5) - Arkansas

Tennessee (-7) - Kentucky

Nevada (+2) - Air Force

Ball St (+3.5) - Massachusetts

Oregon St (+9.5) - Arizona St

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Lines: 11/10/2014 12:00pm

Week 11 Recap

Just when people forgot about the Stream we put together back to back winning weeks.

Three of the underdogs won outright.  And Florida State would have been a lock to cover if Virginia saved any of their timeouts for the end of the game.  Instead the Noles took knees inside the red zone to run out the clock.

+ Week 11 Winners -- 

Texas A&M (+22) - Auburn

Bowling Green (+7) - Akron

North Texas (+4) - Florida Atlantic

+ Week 11 Losers -- 

Georgia St (+7) - Troy

Florida St (-17.5) - Virginia

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Last Week: 3-2

Season: 46-53-1 (46.5%)

Net Units: -5

Win/Loss: $-1081.76

Week 11

Classic slate for the Stream in early November.  Four underdogs and a top-ranked team that isn't getting enough respect.

Fundamentally I wouldn't have a problem betting all underdogs during the final weeks but Virginia has been a dumpster fire over the last month and we'd be dumb not to take advantage.  I'm all in.

+ Week 11 Picks --

1 Unit

Texas A&M (+22) - Auburn

Bowling Green (+7) - Akron

Georgia St (+7) - Troy

Florida St (-17.5) - Virginia

North Texas (+4) - Florida Atlantic

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Lines: 11/3/2014 12:00pm

Week 10 Recap

The Stream is back!  Sure the two games with the best value both lost.  UNC dropped down to +14.5 and Stanford closed at +7, and they both turned into duds, but I digress.  The Stream is going to bring it every Saturday for the rest of the year and I wouldn’t be surprised to finish above 50%.

PS - When Pitt missed a chip shot to end the game in regulation and give the Stream a half-point cover:

+ Week 10 Winners -- 

West Virginia (+6) - TCU

Temple (+7.5) - East Carolina

Brigham Young (-4.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Missouri (-6.5) - Kentucky

Duke (+3.5) - Pittsburgh

+ Week 10 Losers -- 

North Carolina (+17) - Miami FL

Stanford (+10) - Oregon

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Last Week: 5-2

Season: 43-51-1 (45.7%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-1154.49

Week 10 - A Friday Special

How is Duke catching more than a field goal?  I mean this line is just a head scratcher.  Duke is the ranked team.  Duke is playing for an appearance in the ACC Championship game.  Duke’s defense is 5th in the nation.  Duke leads the conference in turnover margin (+8) and Pitt is dead last (-6).  It will be a low-scoring game and Duke has the better kicker.  Duke is 75% against the spread in their last 20 games, Pitt has only covered once in their last 6.

This line sums up everything I need to know about college football this year. I know I’ve already said this a million times, but there just has never been a more unpredictable season in the history of the game.  Never seen anything like it.  If Duke doesn’t win this game outright I am done for the rest of the season.

+ Week 10 Picks --

2 Units

Duke (+3.5) - Pittsburgh

Week 10

2014 continues to be a grind.  For the first time in four years, the Stream is struggling to stay above water.  Yeah there's a lot of variance but oh my does it feel like we're hanging on for dear life.

And even if we're trending in the wrong direction, gotta have that confidence that it's going to turn around this week.  

Now someone get me a stake.

PS - I've bet on the Stanford-Oregon game for the last 15 years and never lost.

+ Week 10 Picks --

1 Unit

North Carolina (+17) - Miami FL

Stanford (+10) - Oregon

West Virginia (+6) - TCU

Temple (+7.5) - East Carolina

Brigham Young (-4.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Missouri (-6.5) - Kentucky

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Lines: 10/27/2014 1:00pm

Week 9 Recap

The week started rocky on Thursday night when Miami rolled into Blacksburg and worked the Hokies.  That's Virginia Tech's third loss at home, the most since 1992.  And this is a team that beat Ohio State in Columbus?  What a year.

The most exciting game of the weekend was Ole Miss at LSU.  Can't rule anything out during a night game in Death Valley.  (Includes facemasks getting ripped off a helmet)

+ Week 9 Winners -- 

Connecticut (+27.5) - East Carolina

North Carolina (+7) - Virginia

+ Week 9 Losers -- 

Virginia Tech (+3) - Miami FL

Brigham Young (+6.5) - Boise St

+ Push -- 

Kent St (+7) - Miami OH

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Last Week: 2-2-1

Season: 38-49-1 (43.4%)

Net Units: -10

Win/Loss: $-1499.95

Week 9

When I checked the scores on Saturday night:

Five underdogs.  Exactly what’s needed to stop a horrific cold streak.

+ Week 9 Picks --

2 Units

Virginia Tech (+3) - Miami FL

1 Unit

Connecticut (+27.5) - East Carolina

North Carolina (+7) - Virginia

Brigham Young (+6.5) - Boise St

Kent St (+7) - Miami OH

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Lines: 10/20/2014 12:00pm

Week 8 Recap

Another 1-5 week and more evidence that this season has been impossible to bet.

Starting with the top play on the Stream, things looked promising for Tulsa +2 when they were leading 30-14 in the third quarter.  Then came the epic collapse and the Golden Hurricane lost by 8.

I also felt confident about Texas A&M when late money arrived on the Aggies.  After all, Alabama was 1-8-1 against the spread in their last ten games.  They won 59-0.

Finally, how about this stat … When Missouri was up 42-0 against the Gators in the third quarter, they had 97 yards of offense.  How is that possible?

+ Week 8 Winners -- 

Appalachian St (+7) - Troy

+ Week 8 Losers -- 

Tulsa (+2) - South Florida

UCLA (-7) - California

Texas A&M (+12) - Alabama

Washington (+21) - Oregon

Bowling Green (-3) - Western Michigan

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Last Week: 1-5

Season: 36-47 (43.4%)

Net Units: -9

Win/Loss: $-1381.77

Week 8

If I've learned anything over the years, it's that the Stream always rebounds after rough weekends.  Expecting a big Saturday.

Love these six early lines.  What I'll look like when these picks go 6-0:

+ Week 8 Picks --

1 Unit

Tulsa (+2) - South Florida

UCLA (-7) - California

Texas A&M (+12) - Alabama

Washington (+21) - Oregon

Bowling Green (-3) - Western Michigan

Appalachian St (+7) - Troy

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Lines: 10/13/2014 11:30am

Week 7 Recap

Duds across the board last week, capped off by VMI scoring a backdoor touchdown with 14 seconds left to cover by 1.  The worst.  My reaction when it happened:

It continues to be a difficult season to handicap, and nowhere is it more apparent than with the two teams in Mississippi.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State rolled again.

Baylor won the wildest game of the day with the greatest comeback in school history. The Bears were down 21 in the 4th quarter and scored 24 straight to win 61-58.

USC got lucky when Arizona missed a field goal at the finish and won 28-26. This is one occasion when freezing the kicker paid off.

+ Week 7 Winners -- 

Iowa St (-3) - Toledo

+ Week 7 Losers -- 

UCLA (+3) - Oregon

North Texas (+6.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

Chattanooga (+26) - Tennessee

Navy (-38) - VMI

Texas-San Antonio (-10) - Florida Int'l

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Last Week: 1-5

Season: 35-42 (45.5%)

Net Units: -5

Win/Loss: $-972.68

Thursday Picks

Another big-time schedule this weekend.  Top teams squaring off all day.  Auburn (2) vs. Miss St (3).  Ole Miss (3) vs. Texas A&M (14).  TCU (9) vs. Baylor (5).  And don't sleep on Oregon (12) vs. UCLA.  I was wrong about the line move, thinking the public would be heavy on Oregon.  Hopefully the Streamers locked in UCLA +3 earlier in the week.

With that being said I think those big games have accurate lines.  Gotta dig deep to find value this week.

What it feels like when I'm making my bets:

What it feels like watching my picks lose:

+ Week 7 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

North Texas (+6.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

Chattanooga (+26) - Tennessee

Navy (-38) - VMI

Iowa St (-3) - Toledo

Texas-San Antonio (-10) - Florida Int'l

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Lines: 10/9/2014 11:30am

Week 7

When its Saturday night and my friends point out that one of the Stream's picks just lost:

Only one game on the Monday slate.  The public will be on Oregon and this line may move up to +3.5 if you decide to wait.  The Ducks are only 2-8 ATS in their last ten games (1-4 this year).  I see a close game with the Bruins on saturday and will be taking the points.

+ Week 7 Picks --

1 Unit

UCLA (+3) - Oregon

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Lines: 10/6/2014 12:00pm

Week 6 Recap

One of the craziest Saturdays we’ve seen in a while.  20 favorites lost outright and many others barely hung on.

The wildest game might have been the Stream’s 2-unit play, Cal at Washington State.  The teams traded scores all night and the defenses were virtually non-existent.  Wazzu had the ball last and drove deep into Cal territory.  Instead of going for the TD (and the cover), their chip-shot kick for the win sailed wide right.  Heinous loss.

As for the best finish, it's a no-brainer.  Arizona State beat USC on a hail mary with no time remaining.

+ Week 6 Winners -- 

Georgia Tech (+2) - Miami FL

Rice (-6) - Hawaii

SMU (+40) - East Carolina

+ Week 6 Losers -- 

Washington St (-3) - California

Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

Florida Atlantic (-6.5) - Florida Int'l

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Last Week: 3-3

Season: 34-37 (47.9%)

Net Units: -1

Win/Loss: $-563.59