Week 12

// Trying to appear confident after the last two weeks.

// These lines are taken from 5Dimes as always.  While traveling for work, I ran the algorithm on Monday at 12pm ET and Thursday at 12pm ET.  The lines below are from those dates/times.

// Last week, I realized that I was pulling for a lot of teams that were playing their backup QB.  I don’t have any inputs or relationships to account for the impact of a backup quarterback.  When a backup takes over the #1 spot on the depth chart, the lines in Vegas adjust but my algorithm doesn’t factor the effect of this.  When a team is playing its backup QB, I have highlighted the game in blue. 

// I’m also skeptical to bet against any of the top 3 teams right now (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame).  My model can’t account for these teams putting up style points as they try to prove that they belong in the top 2.

+ Week 12 Plays -- 

Idaho (+7) - Texas-San Antonio

Colorado St (+28.5) - Boise St

Stanford (+21.5) - Oregon

Arkansas (+7) - Mississippi St

Utah (-1) - Arizona

South Alabama (+10) - Middle Tennessee St

Maryland (+31) - Florida St

Oklahoma (-10.5) - West Virginia

Western Michigan (-12.5) - Eastern Michigan

Notre Dame (-23.5) - Wake Forest

Hawai`i (+23.5) - Air Force

Nevada (-10) - New Mexico

Brigham Young (-3) - San Jose St

Ball St (-4) - Ohio U.

Boston College (+10) - Virginia Tech

// 

+ Gut Plays -- 
Air Force – Hawaii (-21.5). This is the current Friday afternoon line on 5Dimes.  This may go against the model but I’m confident in this pick for three reasons.

1. My friend at work has essentially made this his lock of the year. I’m riding it.

2. Hawaii reeks.

3. When I watch Hawaii attempt to play football: