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Friday, November 2, 2012

55%?

The model is hitting 58% this year, down from 63% last year.  Why is this still a success?

This shows what different win percentages yield for $1,000 wagers each with -110 vig. For example, a 55% win rate makes $55,000.


If it was easy to win at a 55% rate, then many people would be doing it and hurting the sportsbooks. Even with all the square bettors losing their money, sooner or later, the 55% winners would bankrupt the sportsbooks. The mere existence of -110 lines shows that few people can pick at a 55% rate.

The Mainstream is one of the few.

5 comments :

Unknown said...

#togrind
#topursuevalue
#toearn

Miggy said...

#towhale

ajohns said...

Any suggestions on bankroll to start the season? Say your doing $250 a unit? I haven't seen the model go on any streak where you would incur significant losses that would cripple you for the season but was wondering if you had thought about this at all.

ajohns said...

You're**

Miggy said...

http://mnstream.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-model.html

If you're starting out, I would recommend betting 3% of your total bankroll on each play. The actual amount of each bet would just be scaled to your total bankroll.