#1 vs #2

If I was setting the line for this game, I’d place it right at 3 points in favor of the home team. In Tuscaloosa, Bama -3. In Baton Rouge, Tigers -3. Anything larger and I’d see value on the ‘dog.

At quarterback, both signal-callers have similar talent and throw a decent ball. But there is an old saying: “In times of crisis, experience counts.” Jarrett Lee has played in a lot of close games in his career. I don’t think we’ve ever seen AJ McCarron tested against a defense like the one he’ll face on Saturday night.

At wide receiver, LSU has the decisive advantage. The trio of Randle, Shepard, and Beckham will keep Bama’s DBs out of the box. Especially Randle, as he is the one playmaker in this game that can stretch the field. With Maze and Hanks, Bama doesn’t have the playmakers to keep LSU’s defense honest. Mathieu and Claiborne can play man and the Tigers can load up the box with nine guys to stop Trent Richardson.

This leads to the running backs. Richardson is a horse but there won’t be many lanes for him to run in this game. Bodog lists the over/under on Trent Richardson rushing yards against LSU at 99.5. I’d lay the under. And don’t sleep on Spencer Ware who is a bruising back for the Tigers. I could see him having the better night among the RBs.

With the other position groups, there is talent across the board. The offensive lines for both teams are similar, both with a strength in run blocking. LSU has the better D-line, especially with their depth. The advantage at LB goes to Bama with Hightower and Upshaw. I think those two linebackers might decide the game as they’ll need to stop the run without safety support. On to the DBs, these guys will be bathing in money in a few years. Kirkpatrick/Barron for Bama. Mathieu/Claiborne for LSU.

This is going to be a great game.

The one advantage on special teams might go to LSU as their punter, Brad Wing, drops dimes in the redzone like Hugh DeVor lofts his 60-degree. He also knows how to celebrate.

Finally, the crowd will be intense after hours and hours of tailgating and debauchery, but the late-start might play into LSU’s hand. Some think that the Tigers are only a force when the lights are on in Death Valley. Think again…

(taken from covers.com)
30-1 Night Games Away From Home

09/24/11 at No.16 West Virginia (7:00 pm) Won 47-21
09/15/11 at No.25 Miss State (7:00 pm) Won 19-6
09/03/11 No.3 Oregon - Cowboys Classic (7:00 pm) Won 40-27
01/07/11 No.18 Texas A&M - Cotton Bowl (7:29 pm) Won 41-24
10/09/10 at No.14 Florida (6:30 pm) Won 33-29
09/11/10 at Vanderbilt (6:00 pm) Won 27-3
09/04/10 No.18 North Carolina - Chick-fil-A Classic (7:00 pm) Won 30-24
09/05/09 at Washington (9:30 pm) Won 31-23
12/31/08 No.14 Georgia Tech - Chick-fil-A Bowl (6:30 pm) Won 38-3
10/18/08 at South Carolina (7:00 pm) Won 24-17
10/11/08 AT NO.11 FLORIDA (7:00 pm) LOST 21-51
09/20/08 at No.10 Auburn (6:45 pm) Won 26-21
01/07/08 No.1 Ohio State - BCS Championship (7:00 pm) Won 38-24
08/30/07 at Miss State (7:00 pm) Won 45-0
01/03/07 No.11 Notre Dame - Sugar Bowl (7:00 pm) Won 41-14
12/30/05 No.9 Miami - Chick-fil-A Bowl (6:30 pm) Won 40-3
11/19/05 at Ole Miss (6:45 pm) Won 40-7
10/08/05 at Vanderbilt (6:00 pm) Won 34-6
09/10/05 at No.15 Arizona State (8:15 pm) Won 35-31
10/09/04 at No.12 Florida (6:45 pm) Won 24-21
01/04/04 No.1 Oklahoma - BCS Championship (7:00 pm) Won 21-14
12/06/03 No.5 Georgia - SEC Championship (7:00 pm) Won 34-13
11/15/03 at Alabama (6:45 pm) Won 27-3
10/18/03 at South Carolina (6:45 pm) Won 33-7
09/27/03 at Miss State (8:00 pm) Won 41-6
09/06/03 at Arizona (9:00 pm) Won 59-13
10/12/02 at No.16 Florida (6:45 pm) Won 36-7
01/01/02 No.7 Illinois - Sugar Bowl (7:30 pm) Won 47-34
12/08/01 No.2 Tennessee - SEC Championship (7:00 pm) Won 31-20
10/20/01 at Miss State (8:00 pm) Won 42-0
10/13/01 at Kentucky (6:00 pm) Won 29-25

LES MILES FTW