// I wanted to start off with this picture and this song if only because they set the tone equally for a brief glossing of national politics and the kick-ass nature of college and its football.
// Soooo much stuff has happened since I last posted. By the way, sincere apologies for not getting picks in on time last week. If my record is any indication, me not putting my two cents in can only help the internet community at large. The lesson, as always: don't gamble unless you're good at it. So far this season - on games I actually put sheckles on - I'm down $180. That's not the number you're hoping for when you're newly unemployed (yes, I quit working at a golf course because I'm stupid) and spend 30 dollars a week on smokables. Eff it. Like I said, so much has happened. The Federal Reserve looks like it's hell-bent on becoming incorporated (and eventually going bankrupt), the Presidential race mud-slinging has kicked up a notch, and my Lions have set a new NFL record for "earliest point in the season in which fans watching on TV launch into obscenity-laced tirades even when nothing particularly bad is happening". The biggest news we've yet to hit on, however, is the suddenly prolific exposure of Sarah Palin. I don't want to drag on too long because I have some good thoughts on this week's NCAA games, but dig this: her impact on McCain's candidacy is summed up with the tried and true phrase "no press is bad press". I love that saying, especially for its dichotomous nature. First, take it as such: any news said about something is - at least primarily - beneficial to that subject. McCain's campaign was stagnant and boring in nature when compared to the dynamic Obama, at least until Palin signed up. Her nomination as Vice-Preezy gobbles up massive amounts of headlines. In this race, the publicity she brings - even if the topic is as uncouth as a knocked up Jonas Brothers fan - is great for the GOP's profile on the whole. Secondly, "no press is bad press" can be construed into a line of reasoning that, while somewhat circular, leads to a different point. McCain could've chosen a VP that he thought was actually right for the job (and if anyone thinks he thought Sarah Palin was the absolute correct choice, tell them not to have kids), but that wouldn't have grabbed much attention. He would've been stuck with "no news". Not having news about you is bad news. See what I did there? I'm a wordsmith. Like a blacksmith, but white. And using words instead of hammers.
// Let's get to the picks. Week of 9/20/08. Home Teams in ALL CAPS.
+ Lock of the Week: PENN STATE (-29) over Temple -- Yeah, 29 points is an utterly insane spread. That number should scare some people away, perhaps rightfully so. Here's why I think Penn State wins by more than four touchies: Penn State has faced Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, and Syracuse. Granted, none of those teams are any good, but the Nittanies still beat them collectively 166-37. That's an average of 55.3-12.3. Plus, even though the three aforementioned teams are bad, none of them are nearly as bad as Temple, save for Coastal Carolina, and that might be a push. PSU's new "Spread HD" offense (by the way, I put it in quotes because I have no idea what it means or how it works, like I would put "Velcro" in quotes) ranks 8th nationally with a very balanced attack (819 pass yards, 789 rush yards). Throw in JoePa's subconscious desire to embarass a school that dares to play football in the same state that he does, and you have the ingredients of what we in the (very) amateur prognostication biz call "football rape". Next.
+ Florida (-7.5) over TENNESSEE -- It might be dangerous picking against a home dog in the SEC, but I'm a risk taker. I take risk. Anyway, my theory on these two teams has less to do with what I've seen so far on the field (read: very little) and more to do with the dynamics of their relationship. Florida used to dominate throughout the 90s. First with Spurrier's elite squads of the early years and then they feasted on Peyton Manning's address in Choke City. After Tee Martin (who?) broke through that barrier and Ron Zook took the reins in Gainesville, the momentum shifted drastically save for a few upsets. Urban Meyer is the Jim Tressel to Phil Fulmer's Lloyd Carr. If you want to make Meyer into Lloyd Carr - and who wouldn't? - try this on: Meyer = Carr and Fulmer = Cooper. I feel like the whole "one coaching completely owning the other" is a trend that never gets enough credit. Oh yeah, Florida has much better football players, save for UT's Eric Berry, a boner-inducing safety cut from the same cloth as Polamalu, Dawkins, Lynch and Sharper. He might be faster.
+ Virginia Tech (+3) over NORTH CAROLINA -- Remember Boston College last season? They came (a little bit) out of nowhere and ran through their first 8 games unblemished? Florida State came up to Beantown in November and handled Matt Ryan & Co. The lesson: a conference's historically better, old warhorses have a mental edge over their upstart counterparts. UNC is much improved, and that was expected with the arrival of well above-average recruiting man Butch Davis (who I kind of wanted for MSU). They looked great last Thursday in pillaging Rutgers in Piscataway. Perhaps too great? I think they fall back to Earth as Frank Beamer and the Hokies maintain their status quo.
+ PURDUE (-10.5) over Central Michigan -- I hate to do this to my CMU cronies, but when it comes to picking football games against the spread, you have to leave emotion out of the equation. It's exactly like having intercourse, only less embarassing if you do it wrong. Purdue won last year in the Motor City Bowl by 3. First, I don't think Central is as good this year as they were last year. Still a good team, maybe the 2nd best team in the state, but not as hungry or deep 2 years removed from Brian Kelly. Second, I think Purdue is better than they were last year (they lost at home to MSU? What?). The program's been stagnating for too long and Joe Tiller is too good a coach to not coax 9 or 10 wins out of the Boilers. Combine those two theories and add in the fact that this tilt will be at Ross-Ade and not a Chippewa-heavy Ford Field, and I like Purdue to cover. Barely.
+ MICHIGAN STATE (-9) over Notre Dame -- To be completely honest, I can't even decide if this is a homer pick or not. I saw the Michigan-ND game last week, and I saw Michigan's game the week before. Michigan - admittedly a very mediocre team this year - is not nearly as bad as they were last week. They made Notre Dame look better than they are. The score will tend to be lopsided when one team commits 26 turnovers. Notre Dame also had the psych edge from getting their asses handed to them by UM the previous season, so the vengeance factor was in full effect. That being said, 2008 Notre Dame isn't 2007 Notre Dame. They are better, and this game will be better than last year's MSU-ND game, which State won by 17 - a score not entirely indicative of the domination. I don't think Dantonio's squad will make the unforced errors that Michigan did. Hence, ND won't be able to make b.s. 20-yard touchdown drives. The factor that pushes MSU into a 17 or 20 point victory: harnessed rage stemming from the 2006 game, the final 4th-quarter nosedive in the abortion of a career of John L. Smith. After the '06 game, I put on my 1952 National Championship season MSU helmet, went down to Spartan Spirit liquor store and spent my last $20 on a fifth of JD, went to the adjacent alley in the pouring rain, and split the booze with a bum for the better part of an hour. Not this time, Charlie Tuna. Booze, yes. Bum, no. Go Green.
+ So Far This Season: 3-2, Lock of the Week: 0-1
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