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Thursday, September 4, 2008

NFL Quick-Hit Preview & Week 1 Picks

// Who's got one and a half thumbs, was recently involved in horseplay around a bandsaw, and didn't plan ahead for his NFL preview? This guy! Before we get started, psych! about the half-thumb. I have both full thumbs intact. My apologies to those without the double full thumb. Tough cut. Enough nonsense, let's hit the divisions rapid-fire before I give my picks. I wanted to do a full preview and then set up the picks in a separate post, but like I said: there wasn't any planning ahead. Fair warning: this is more about the week's picks than the divisional predictions. Also, the NFL doesn't nearly give me (or most people I know) the chubby that college football does. Being a lifelong fan of the Lions will do that to you.

AFC North - At the end of last season - possibly due to the Steelers being defeated at home by the Jags in the playoffs - people were very high on the Browns as a possible division crown usurper. The Browns had a bad preseason and people are naturally souring on their chances. Not this guy. Pittsburgh is still a playoff team, but I think this is the year the Browns finally get to the playoffs and win a division title. The Bengals should hover around .500, and the Ravens should get excited for a top 5 draft pick in 2009.

AFC South - The Colts aren't the no-brainer to win the division they used to be; the Jaguars have closed that gap to an infinitesimal amount. Nevertheless, Indy is the pick to win, with the Jaguars getting the AFC's second wild-card spot. Keep an eye on Houston and Tennessee; they're both improving with each passing season. They're not quite there yet. Dig it.

AFC East - The easiest pick of them all: Pats win the division, and I don't think they do worse than 15-1. The Jets are an intriguing team (and possible wild-card team), Buffalo is a hot team among pundits, and the Dolphins are a near-certainty to have an improved record, but this division is like a kid who had to repeat 4th grade twice trying out for 7th grade basketball.

AFC West - Conventional wisdom says the Chargers win but maaaaaaaybe the Broncos can make a run, and I'm inclined to agree. The Raiders and the Chiefs are still undergoing massive rebuilding efforts. I couldn't possible care less. Side note: I sincerely hope that Shawne Merriman doesn't eff up his career by playing on his bum knee. He is truly a joy to watch when he's (legitimately) terrorizing O-linemen and lead-footed QBs. Stay healthy, Lights Out.

NFC North - I'm actually beginning to eat the Leo's cornbread to the tune of believing in 8-8. I'm like a victim of Stockholm Syndrome. Truthfully, count me amongst the Aaron Rodgers honks. I think the Vikes win the division but the Packers get a wild-card spot. I find that a lot of people overlook the fact that the Packers and Vikings defenses are totally top-notch. The Bears can be broken down like this: them not drafting a QB at any point in the last 3 or 4 drafts is like having a broken leg and insisting on doing the breaststroke 3 times a day, then wondering why the leg doesn't heal. Beyond idiotic.

NFC South - People are getting behind the Saints emotionally again, partly due to SeƱor Gustav, but I'm not totally sold yet. This is perhaps the hardest division to predict. The Falcons are obviously terrible, but the Saints, Bucs, and Panthers all have legitimate shots to win. I guess I don't have the sand to take a flyer on Tampa Bay or Carolina. Saints it is. I like Vilma.

NFC East - Top to bottom, the NFC East looks to be the best division going into this season. Based on the MASSIVE amount of talent they've accrued (and don't rule out a trade for Anquan Boldin), the Cowboys are a solid favorite to win the division. I think the second wild-card team comes out of this division as well, but it might not be who you think: the Redskins. I have - for no discernible reason - good faith in Jason Campbell. At every other position (especially in the trenches), the 'Skins are solid. Put 'em in.

NFC West - The NFL's version of the ACC. I can't convey how many things I'd rather do than think about this division. Let's make it short and sweet: Seahawks win the division, and every other team finishes no better than 8-8.

Wild Card Round
Jags over Chargers
Browns over Steelers
Packers over Seahawks (again)
Saints over Redskins

Divisional Round
Jaguars over Colts
Pats over Browns
Vikings over Packers
Cowboys over Saints

Conference Championships
Pats over Jaguars
Cowboys over Vikings

Super Bowl XLIII
Pats over Cowboys

// I know, it's a big risk taking the Pats. My middle name is Danger George. If you don't like it, feel free to send me an email. Let's move on. The lines are courtesy of CentSports.com. Home teams are in ALL CAPS. Without further ado, it's pick time...

NFL Picks - Week of 9/7/08

* Redskins (+4.5) over GIANTS *

* Texans (+7) over STEELERS *

* Rams (+7.5) over EAGLES *

* SAINTS (-3.5) over BUCS *

* BILLS (-1) over SEAHAWKS *

* Lions (-3) over FALCONS *

* Jets (-3) over DOLPHINS *

* RAVENS (+2) over Bengals *

* PATRIOTS (-17) over Chiefs *

* Jaguars (-3) over TITANS *

* 49ERS (+2.5) over Cardinals *

* CHARGERS (-9) over Panthers *

* Cowboys (-6) over BROWNS *

* COLTS (-10) over Bears *

* Vikings (+2.5) over PACKERS *

* Broncos (-3) over RAIDERS *

// College picks tomorrow. Malted hops tonight. Choice.


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