Week 4 Recap

+ Week 4 Winners -- 

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Syracuse (-13.5) - Tulane

Georgia Tech (-5) - North Carolina

Utah St (+6.5) - Southern Cal

Ball St (-10.5) - Eastern Michigan

+ Week 4 Losers -- 

Army (+3.5) - Wake Forest

Florida Int'l (+42) - Louisville

Indiana (+4.5) - Missouri

Florida Atlantic (+5) - Middle Tennessee St

Hawaii (+12) - Nevada

Air Force (+5) - Wyoming

Last Week: 4-6
Season: 44-28-2 (61.1%)

ICE COLD!

Heinous!

When I see Florida Atlantic head into overtime and I have them +5:

When I see Florida Atlantic lose by 7:

Thursday Picks

Expectations for Week 4:

Rounding out the Top 10...

Ball St (-10.5) - Eastern Michigan
Air Force (+5) - Wyoming

I'm not going to predict a 10-0 record this week but will be shocked if I'm not at least 9-1.  Even Bath Ruth struck out sometimes.

PS - I don't know what Vegas is up to right now.  ND down to -4.5 after opening at -7?  Mind games like you read about.  They better be careful or I will be laying a month's rent on the Irish if it keeps dropping.

Week 4

You just know Cooper Manning tries to join these games every time and gets denied.


+ Week 4 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"
Syracuse (-13.5) - Tulane
Army (+3.5) - Wake Forest
Georgia Tech (-5) - North Carolina
Utah St (+6.5) - Southern Cal
Florida Int'l (+42) - Louisville
Indiana (+4.5) - Missouri
Florida Atlantic (+5) - Middle Tennessee St
Hawaii (+12) - Nevada


Last Week: 10-6
Season: 40-22-2 (64.5%)

Yeah there are only 8 picks.  17 out of the 58 games don't have lines yet.   How about Vegas right now.  Just tucking its tail between its legs.  Afraid to offer spreads knowing the Mainstream will pounce immediately on any weak offer.  Honestly can't blame them.

Week 3 Recap

Top 10 picks went 8-2 again.  That's 8-2, 8-2, and 6-3-1 in the first three weeks.  75.9%

+ Week 3 Winners -- 

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Stony Brook (+13) - Buffalo

Air Force (+23.5) - Boise St

Louisiana-Lafayette (-23.5) - Nicholls St

Rice (-5) - Kansas

Texas Tech (+3.5) - TCU

South Alabama (+11) - Western Kentucky

Georgia Tech (-8) - Duke

Georgia St (+38.5) - West Virginia

Army (+30.5) - Stanford 

+ Week 3 Losers -- 

Youngstown St (+27) - Michigan St

Minnesota (-23.5) - Western Illinois

Nevada (+32) - Florida St

Tulsa (+24.5) - Oklahoma

Connecticut (+7.5) - Maryland

Texas (-2.5) - Mississippi

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 40-22-2 (64.5%)

Honest question, if Minnesota's coach has a seizure on the sidelines during the game, shouldn't Vegas refund the bet?  The Gophers were just rattled at that point.  Can't play like that.  Feel like I should be able to say the Top 10 went 8-1 this week.

Everyone Is On Alabama Today... Oh Wait I'm Not

Everyone I've talked to likes Alabama today.  Well fellow Mnstreamer Kevin and I are going with Texas A&M +8.5.  It's Johnny Football.  Wake up!

Thursday Picks - If You're Not Riding The Stream Right Now You're A Sucker Of Epic Proportions

When I bet Texas after they gave up 1,000 rushing yards to BYU last week...

Texas (-2.5) - Mississippi
Army (+30.5) - Stanford


Most of the lines moving in my favor again this week. Surprised? Haha, no.
Two lines moved away from me, Florida State (3.5 pts) and West Virginia (1.5 pts). Not thrilled but it's gotta be from the dumb public bettors laying heavy favorites.

h/t Deeves on the gif

Gallon's First Touchdown

Chesson went Diesel

Is The Algorithm Working?

Early in the year, I'll know if my picks are strong based on closing lines.  And I'll bet any game if I see value.  It's called being a sharp.  Cross I bear.

PS - Samford (+32.5) against Arkansas.  Richmond (+23) against NC State.  In the fourth quarters, Samford was winning 21-17 and Richmond was up 21-20.  Betting underdogs 101.

Week 3

Friends were chirping at me last Saturday.  Asking, wanting, demanding my lock of the week.  No-brainer city.  South Florida +24.5 at Michigan State.  Listen I know the Bulls are bad but they could have been shut out and covered.

Sparty's offense:

+ Week 3 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Stony Brook (+13) - Buffalo

Youngstown St (+27) - Michigan St

Air Force (+23.5) - Boise St

Minnesota (-23.5) - Western Illinois

Louisiana-Lafayette (-23.5) - Nicholls St

Rice (-5) - Kansas

Texas Tech (+3.5) - TCU

South Alabama (+11) - Western Kentucky

Georgia Tech (-8) - Duke

"Rest of the Picks"

Nevada (+32) - Florida St

Tulsa (+24.5) - Oklahoma

Georgia St (+38.5) - West Virginia

Connecticut (+7.5) - Maryland

Last Week: 17-7-1
Season: 30-16-2 (65.2%)

h/t Deeves on the gif

Week 2 Recap

When my picks go Beast Mode and finish 8-2* in my Top 10:

+ Week 2 Winners --
Sam Houston St (+46.5) - Texas A&M
Eastern Kentucky (+41) – Louisville
Cal Poly (+27) - Fresno St
Samford (+32.5) - Arkansas
San Jose St (+27) – Stanford
South Alabama (+6.5) – Tulane
Boston College (-3) - Wake Forest
South Florida (+24.5) - Michigan St
Central Arkansas (+16) – Colorado
Richmond (+23) - North Carolina St
Portland St (+27.5) – California
Mississippi St (-42.5) - Alcorn St
Maine (-3) – Massachusetts
South Dakota (+23.5) – Kansas
Utah (-23) - Weber St
Kansas St (-10) - Louisiana-Lafayette
North Carolina (-17) - Middle Tennessee St

+ Week 2 Losers -- 
Tennessee-Martin (+35) - Boise St
Temple (+3) – Houston
Arkansas St (+13) - Auburn
Louisiana-Monroe (-39) - Grambling St
Florida Int'l (+24.5) - Central Florida
San Diego St (+28) - Ohio State
Stephen F. Austin (+38) - Texas Tech

+ Push --
North Texas (+6) - Ohio U

Last Week: 17-7-1
Season: 30-16-2 (65.2%)

*8-2 with a horrible beat.  Should have went 9-1.  Temple was looking like a tasty cover the whole game until Houston scored with a minute left.  Can't have it.  Won't have it.

Thursday Picks And A Big Weekend Ahead

Remember in Wedding Crashers how Bradley Cooper* took the backyard football game a little too serious?  That's how dialed in I am for Saturday in Ann Arbor.  Big tailgate, bigger game, lots of bets, the works.

North Carolina (-17) - Middle Tennessee St
Stephen F. Austin (+38) - Texas Tech


PS - How about the line movement on my top play this week?  I locked in Sam Houston St at +46.5 on Monday.  It went up to +48 on Tuesday.  Now it's down to +37.5.  Am I responsible?  I don't know, you tell me.



*Sack Lodge

Week 2

Do I say I feel good about my picks every week?  Yes.  Do I actually feel good about my picks this week?  Also yes.

When I realized how many underdogs I picked:

+ Week 2 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"

Sam Houston St (+46.5) - Texas A&M 

Eastern Kentucky (+41) - Louisville
Cal Poly (+27) - Fresno St
Samford (+32.5) - Arkansas
Tennessee-Martin (+35) - Boise St
Temple (+3) - Houston
San Jose St (+27) - Stanford
South Alabama (+6.5) - Tulane
Boston College (-3) - Wake Forest
South Florida (+24.5) - Michigan St


"Rest of the Picks"

Arkansas St (+13) - Auburn
Central Arkansas (+16) - Colorado
Richmond (+23) - North Carolina St
Portland St (+27.5) - California
Louisiana-Monroe (-39) - Grambling St
North Texas (+6) - Ohio U
Florida Int'l (+24.5) - Central Florida
Mississippi St (-42.5) - Alcorn St
Maine (-3) - Massachusetts
South Dakota (+23.5) - Kansas
Utah (-23) - Weber St
Kansas St (-10) - Louisiana-Lafayette
San Diego St (+28) - Ohio State


Last Week: 13-9-1
Season: 13-9-1 (59.1%)

Week 1 Recap

When I checked scores on Saturday night:

+ Week 1 Winners -- 

Georgia St (+21.5) - Samford
Western Carolina (+32) - Middle Tennessee St
Buffalo (+35) - Ohio State 

William & Mary (+32) - West Virginia 

Austin Peay (+50.5) - Tennessee
Central Florida (-21) – Akron

Hawaii (+21.5) - Southern Cal

Syracuse (+8) - Penn State 

Temple (+30) - Notre Dame 

Houston (-40) - Southern U.

Southern Illinois (+18) - Illinois
Southern Utah (+17) - South Alabama 

Arkansas St (-26) - Arkansas-Pine Bluff 

+ Week 1 Losers -- 

San Diego St (-15) - Eastern Illinois
Brigham Young (pk) - Virginia 

Indiana St (+24.5) - Indiana 

Utah St (+2.5) - Utah
Elon (+46.5) - Georgia Tech 

Florida Int'l (+21) - Maryland 

Army (-32) - Morgan St 

Eastern Michigan (-17) - Howard 

Wofford (+30.5) - Baylor 

+ Push --

Northern Arizona (+35) - Arizona 

Last Week: 13-9-1
Season: 13-9-1 (59.1%)

I could say I’m pleased with 59% but then I’d be lying through my teeth.  I hit 71% during Week 1 last year and that’s the bar for September.

How about Eastern Illinois flat out bringing it again San Diego St?  My top play got smoked.  Never seen such a thing.  Mind games all over the place.

PS – LSU fans, passion times infinity

Is This The Best Weekend Of The Year?

Feels like summer and football is here.  America!

So there's a big game tonight.  Top 10 showdown.  My algorithm thinks it's priced correctly, Georgia a slight favorite.  But given the situation I need to bet a month's rent on the game.  Need it.  If you are betting this game, post your pick in the comments.

When I'm torn on a game like this, I go with one of the most reliable methods for picking winners... Which fans have the most talent.

Georgia




Clemson

Have to go Bulldogs right?

My Week 1 Record Is Going To Blow Your Mind

I've got a pep in my step today.  Why?  Because we've got ourselves five more games to bet.  Winners for everyone.

Southern Illinois (+18) - Illinois
Southern Utah (+17) - South Alabama
Eastern Michigan (-17) - Howard
Arkansas St (-26) - Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Wofford (+30.5) - Baylor

The first four games didn't have lines on Monday.  Baylor was posted at -28.5 and jumped two points.

//

I've been told that I pick too many plays.  Well Week 1 has the most opportunity.  Gotta lay it all on the line.  Don't like it?  Go read a book.  I've bet so much money this week I can't keep track of it.  Became an absolute whale.

PS - One game I really like is Buffalo - Ohio State.  Buffalo went down to Athens last year and hung with Georgia.  And since you're wondering, yes I picked Buffalo.

Did The Stream Expose A Mistake On 5Dimes And Scare Linesmakers Around The World?

When I ran the algorithm on Monday and extracted the lines from 5Dimes, the Georgia St. line was offered at +21.5.  Unbeknownst to me at the time, sirens must have been going off at 5Dimes headquarters.  People freaking out, asking questions, "Did the Mainstream expose us with the wrong line?!?"

Yes, yes I did.  Later that afternoon, 5Dimes ripped the game off the board.  (It's currently listed at Georgia State +7)

Well 5Dimes, here endeth the lesson.  I'm going to keep coming every week.  Value city, population Mainstream.


h/t Adrian

Week 1

FBS vs. FCS matchups all over the board. Big spreads. Lots of uncertainty in the sportsbooks. Since there are so many picks this week, I'll divide them into two groups.

+ Week 1 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"

San Diego St (-15) - Eastern Illinois
Northern Arizona (+35) - Arizona
Georgia St (+21.5) - Samford
Western Carolina (+32) - Middle Tennessee St
Buffalo (+35) - Ohio State
Brigham Young (pk) - Virginia
William & Mary (+32) - West Virginia
Indiana St (+24.5) - Indiana
Austin Peay (+50.5) - Tennessee
Central Florida (-21) - Akron


"Rest of the Picks"

Hawaii (+21.5) - Southern Cal
Utah St (+2.5) - Utah
Elon (+46.5) - Georgia Tech
Syracuse (+8) - Penn State
Florida Int'l (+21) - Maryland
Temple (+30) - Notre Dame
Army (-32) - Morgan St
Houston (-40) - Southern U.


Last Week: N/A
Season: 0-0-0

I'm Baaaaaaack!!

Let’s do this. Back for Year 3.

I collected data for every team.  The regressions were run.  And the model is ripe to pick some winners.  You can visit the Stream each week and find value.  Wash, rinse, repeat.

I'll run the algorithm at 12pm on Mondays and Thursdays, lines taken from 5Dimes.  Picks will be posted shortly after.

If you’ve followed my picks the last two years, you got to enjoy everything that comes with football betting and not lose money. I didn’t perform as well last year but improvements were made.  Rome wasn’t built in a day I guess.

2012: 104-91-5 (53.3%)
2011: 83-48-4 (63.4%)

If you only bet my top five plays every week in 2012, you would have finished 38-30 (56%).

//

PS - This summer there was a story about a bettor hitting 70%. This raised a red flag for a lot of sports betting folks who proved he was a fraud.  Bob Voulgaris, whom Nate Silver called the best sports bettor in the world, only wins about 57% of his NBA bets.  SportsInsights ran the numbers in June and found that your chances of winning 70% of bets against the spread are about one in one trillion.

Can we hit something in the high-50's this year?  I don’t want to sound overconfident but yes.

Memorial Day Weekend

Memorial day weekend, start of the summer, no city better on planet earth.