Is This The Best Weekend Of The Year?

Feels like summer and football is here.  America!

So there's a big game tonight.  Top 10 showdown.  My algorithm thinks it's priced correctly, Georgia a slight favorite.  But given the situation I need to bet a month's rent on the game.  Need it.  If you are betting this game, post your pick in the comments.

When I'm torn on a game like this, I go with one of the most reliable methods for picking winners... Which fans have the most talent.

Georgia




Clemson

Have to go Bulldogs right?

My Week 1 Record Is Going To Blow Your Mind

I've got a pep in my step today.  Why?  Because we've got ourselves five more games to bet.  Winners for everyone.

Southern Illinois (+18) - Illinois
Southern Utah (+17) - South Alabama
Eastern Michigan (-17) - Howard
Arkansas St (-26) - Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Wofford (+30.5) - Baylor

The first four games didn't have lines on Monday.  Baylor was posted at -28.5 and jumped two points.

//

I've been told that I pick too many plays.  Well Week 1 has the most opportunity.  Gotta lay it all on the line.  Don't like it?  Go read a book.  I've bet so much money this week I can't keep track of it.  Became an absolute whale.

PS - One game I really like is Buffalo - Ohio State.  Buffalo went down to Athens last year and hung with Georgia.  And since you're wondering, yes I picked Buffalo.

Did The Stream Expose A Mistake On 5Dimes And Scare Linesmakers Around The World?

When I ran the algorithm on Monday and extracted the lines from 5Dimes, the Georgia St. line was offered at +21.5.  Unbeknownst to me at the time, sirens must have been going off at 5Dimes headquarters.  People freaking out, asking questions, "Did the Mainstream expose us with the wrong line?!?"

Yes, yes I did.  Later that afternoon, 5Dimes ripped the game off the board.  (It's currently listed at Georgia State +7)

Well 5Dimes, here endeth the lesson.  I'm going to keep coming every week.  Value city, population Mainstream.


h/t Adrian

Week 1

FBS vs. FCS matchups all over the board. Big spreads. Lots of uncertainty in the sportsbooks. Since there are so many picks this week, I'll divide them into two groups.

+ Week 1 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"

San Diego St (-15) - Eastern Illinois
Northern Arizona (+35) - Arizona
Georgia St (+21.5) - Samford
Western Carolina (+32) - Middle Tennessee St
Buffalo (+35) - Ohio State
Brigham Young (pk) - Virginia
William & Mary (+32) - West Virginia
Indiana St (+24.5) - Indiana
Austin Peay (+50.5) - Tennessee
Central Florida (-21) - Akron


"Rest of the Picks"

Hawaii (+21.5) - Southern Cal
Utah St (+2.5) - Utah
Elon (+46.5) - Georgia Tech
Syracuse (+8) - Penn State
Florida Int'l (+21) - Maryland
Temple (+30) - Notre Dame
Army (-32) - Morgan St
Houston (-40) - Southern U.


Last Week: N/A
Season: 0-0-0

I'm Baaaaaaack!!

Let’s do this. Back for Year 3.

I collected data for every team.  The regressions were run.  And the model is ripe to pick some winners.  You can visit the Stream each week and find value.  Wash, rinse, repeat.

I'll run the algorithm at 12pm on Mondays and Thursdays, lines taken from 5Dimes.  Picks will be posted shortly after.

If you’ve followed my picks the last two years, you got to enjoy everything that comes with football betting and not lose money. I didn’t perform as well last year but improvements were made.  Rome wasn’t built in a day I guess.

2012: 104-91-5 (53.3%)
2011: 83-48-4 (63.4%)

If you only bet my top five plays every week in 2012, you would have finished 38-30 (56%).

//

PS - This summer there was a story about a bettor hitting 70%. This raised a red flag for a lot of sports betting folks who proved he was a fraud.  Bob Voulgaris, whom Nate Silver called the best sports bettor in the world, only wins about 57% of his NBA bets.  SportsInsights ran the numbers in June and found that your chances of winning 70% of bets against the spread are about one in one trillion.

Can we hit something in the high-50's this year?  I don’t want to sound overconfident but yes.