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Monday, August 31, 2015

Week 1

Not the strongest showing last year but shooters keeps shooting.  Doesn't matter how many shots they brick or how many duds they post on their blog.

Little bit of a new format this year.  Each week I’m going to post the top picks -- probably a top 5.  That’s it.  Back to basics.  Same schedule -- Mondays/Thursdays.  Lines will be taken from 5Dimes on Monday mornings.


+ Lasko's Week 1 Picks --

Wisconsin (+10.5) - Alabama
Central Michigan (+24.5) - Oklahoma State
Mississippi State (-21) - Southern Miss
Washington (+12) - Boise State

//

Last Week: 0-0
Season: 0-0
Career: 326-255-14 (56.1%)



Game notes -- 
Wisconsin - Bama: Both teams are going to load the box and stop the run. If the Badgers can force Bama into obvious passing situations, there’s no McCarron, McElroy, or (my favorite) John Parker Wilson to move the chains.  Expect a low-scoring game.


Central Michigan – Oklahoma State: *scene* OK State players are bored on Wednesday night in Mount Pleasant, head over to O’Kelly’s, get trashed, leave at 5am (Varsity Blues style), sleep through their alarms, barely make the team bus, and look heinous in the first half.


Mississippi State – Southern Miss: Dan Mullen will run up the score to help Dak Prescott’s heisman campaign. 

Washington – Boise State: The appetizer for Saturday -- This is the friday night game on espn, and that means we get Quint Kessenich patrolling the sidelines. Always nice to see Quint out there competing early in the season.




PS – The lines are moving a lot today. If you see a number that is a half point off, just wait – it will come back.

Sunday, August 30, 2015

Season Totals

People keep chirping me "Hey when are you going to post your picks?"  I mean I get it.  3-0 last year without breaking a sweat.  Well I'm just here to give the people what they want.  We're doubling down this year and honestly 6-0 is possible, if not likely.


+ Season Total Picks – 


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Over 7.5 (-175)
It’s the same story as last year -- rinse, wash, repeat.  Georgia Tech was listed at -6.5 and finished 10-2.  Bookies should just credit our accounts now.

As a quick recap.... The longtime Streamers will not be surprised here. I’ve picked the Yellow Jackets as much as any other team over the years and they rarely let us down. Paul Johnson’s system is tough to prepare for in a week and they tend to wear teams down during a game.  Paul Johnson has been a college football head coach for 17 18 seasons. In those 17 18 years, his teams have failed to reach the postseason only once.


Central Michigan Chippewas – Over 4 (-150)
Chippewa nation stand up!  Dan Enos is out.  New head coach John Bonamego is in.  The Chips won seven games last year and Cooper Rush, last seen throwing an FBS bowl-record seven touchdown passes in the Bahamas Bowl, is back at QB.  Digging into the schedule -- Monmouth, Buffalo, Akron, Kent State, Eastern Michigan all lie ahead.  Tell me the Chips don't get to five wins this year. You can't.


Florida State Seminoles – Under 9.5 (-120)
When Jameis Winston met with reporters at the NFL combine, he was asked how difficult it was to leave Florida State and declare for the draft.  Winston responded that his top receiver, top tight end, four offensive linemen and a senior running back were invited to the combine as well. He asked, “If you were playing quarterback at Florida State, what would you do?”

Now as for what's left in Tallahassee, they got players hitting women in bars, getting arrested... No bueno.  Give me one upset in addition to losses at Georgia Tech and at Clemson and we're hitting the under.

Also it has to be mentioned that the FSU war chant is the worst thing in sports.  2 yard pass on first down, war chant.  Incomplete pass on defense, war chant.  It's literally all they have.  Well, the chant and Renegade.  I sneaky like Renegade.



Boston College Eagles – Over 5.5 (-105)
Since Steve Addazio took over a 2-10 team three years ago, he’s put together back-to-back winning seasons.  He also has that certain "it" factor where he is willing to the hit the Chain Gang guy for falling down and getting in his way.


As if the Chain Gang doesn’t get disrespected enough to begin with. Like there was nobody in the stadium who felt worse about falling down than the Chain Gang Guy. Everybody else trying to help him up only to get backhanded by Addazio.  Can't teach that kind of passion.

The Eagles aren't flashy but they’ll play everyone tough.  This team punches the clock.  The running game should be solid, led by Jon Hilliman, who gained 860 yards with 13 touchdowns last fall.  The strength of the team is the front seven on defense.  Expect the Eagles to repeat as one of the top defenses in the country against the run.  A year ago, the Eagles finished second only to Michigan State in rush defense.


Northern Illinois Huskies – Under 8.5 (+110)
First things first.  This will be the first season since 2004 that we don't have Diesel, the blue-eyed husky, on Northern Illinois' sideline.  Retired.  Gone forever.  Can’t be overstated.


You also have to think they have no confidence following their 52-23 defeat to Marshall in the Boca Raton bowl.  Tough to recover from a bloodbath like that.


Washington Huskies – Over 4.5 (-160)
It's Chris Petersen’s second season and oh my are there are a lot of question marks.  Just nine starters return.  The defensive front seven must be completely rebuilt.  A new quarterback needs to be broken in. But while everyone is expecting a rebuilding year, I also see home games against Sacramento State, Utah State, Cal, and Washington State.  There's five wins right there.


PS – I also loved Akron at Under 7.5 but didn’t bet it cause of the juice, -195. Today the odds are up to -220.  I mean Akron at 7.5 wins, you kidding me? Who's setting these lines?

Saturday, August 29, 2015

1 Week....

Well this is it.  We made it.  Labor day weekend is directly ahead and that means one thing… college football.

Big slate of games ahead of us.  Stock the fridge.  Place your bets.  Nothing gets the heart racing like the first weekend.  Mental preparation is key.








Monday, August 24, 2015

Coming Soon....




Sunday, January 18, 2015

2015 Season


See you again in August for next season's over/under bets. (Went 3-0 this year, nbd.)

The final record was 54-64-2 (45.8%).  If I had to describe this season via gif:



In the long run, this was a bump in the road.  A bump that definitely caused a few flat tires but a bump nonetheless.  We'll be back this fall and put Mainstream back on the map.


Thursday, January 15, 2015

Bowl Games Recap

What Oregon did to Florida State in the Rose Bowl:



+ Bowl Winners -- 
Ohio State (+9.5) - Alabama
South Carolina (+4) - Miami FL

+ Bowl Losers -- 
Florida St (+9.5) - Oregon

//

Last Week: 2-1
Season: 54-64-2 (45.8%)
Net Units: -8
Win/Loss: $-1454.48

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Bowl Games

Update on the Stream's climb to 50%:


If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times, always bet on Urban Meyer when he's an underdog.  I mean everyone knew that his team would come to play in the Big Ten championship and Cardale Jones would sling it all over the field.  Now the question has to be asked, does Ohio State cover against Bama or do the Buckeyes win outright?

+ Bowl Picks --

1 Unit
Ohio State (+9.5) - Alabama
Florida St (+9.5) - Oregon
South Carolina (+4) - Miami FL

//

Lines: 12/16/2014 8:00pm

Monday, December 15, 2014

Week 15 Recap

Well....


+ Week 15 Winners -- 

+ Week 15 Losers -- 
Florida St (-3.5) - Georgia Tech
Wisconsin (+4) - Ohio St

//

Last Week: 0-2
Season: 52-63-2 (45.2%)
Net Units: -9
Win/Loss: $-1536.30

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Week 15 Picks

In a first for the Stream, my algorithm found no value on a college football Saturday.  In the model's view, the lines are priced correctly across the board.

With that said I have a slight lean in two games, and by slight lean I mean that I will be getting aggressive at the sportsbook.  My gut feeling is that Florida State and Wisconsin both cover.

With Georgia Tech losing their best receiver, I think they become one-dimensional and FSU's defense shuts them down.  DeAndre Smelter had 715 receiving yards for the Yellow Jackets this year.  The next closest was Darren Waller with 255.  That's for the year.  The entire year.  It pains me to bet against Zach Laskey, I mean the guy is just a touchdown machine (9 total TDs this year), but this is business.

FSU -3.5

With Ohio State, first thing's first.  Cardale Jones can't pass.  Cardale Jones can't run.  The question mark is how much of an impact Jalin Marshall will have on the game.  Either way, there's the chance that the Buckeyes offense just implodes and if that happens, I want to be on the other side.

Wisconsin -4


Monday, December 1, 2014

Week 15 - Championship Week

The Stream's performance this year summarized in one gif:


Some interesting games on the slate this weekend.  How will Ohio State's offense look without JT Barrett?  Will Oregon look to make a statement after getting embarrassed by Arizona the last two years?  Should the line in the SEC title game really be 14.5 points?

Check back on Thursday.

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Week 14 Recap

Saturday was exactly why you don't mess with college football in November.  I woke up on Saturday thinking all of my calculated plays were going to go undefeated.  Before I know it, up is down, down is up and I can't make sense of anything.  I mean look at the Michigan - Ohio State game.  Gardner's first pass of the game sails right into the hands of an OSU safety, Vonn Bell.  Unrelated but kinda related, it may have been Bell's second best catch of the game.


Anyways, OSU scores a few plays later.  I got 75 texts from friends all saying the same thing... This is going to be a blowout!!!  Fast forward and the game has turned into a battle.  If not for a few coaching blunders by Hoke, Michigan would be leading in the 3rd quarter and there's no chance OSU covers the 21 points.  Oh wait, the Buckeyes score two touchdowns in 50 seconds and now lead 42-21.  But there's still a few minutes left and yep, Michigan backdoors the cover with a minute to go.  Vintage November football.  Almost impossible to predict.


+ Week 14 Winners -- 
Virginia Tech (+1.5) - Virginia

+ Week 14 Losers -- 
Massachusetts (+2) - Buffalo
Penn State (+13.5) - Michigan St

//

Last Week: 1-2
Season: 52-61-2 (46.0%)
Net Units: -7
Win/Loss: $-1336.30

PS - Hey Coach Hoke,

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Rivalry Week

Rivalry games on top of rivalry games. All day.

Let's take a look at my plans for the next 12 hours:


Friday, November 28, 2014

Thursday Picks

Watching Buffalo take a 20-0 lead en route to their first road win of the season:


OK, the line for Penn State did not rise.  At all.  I mean it even dropped to +13 for a minute.  But that's neither here nor there.  Here's what I know.  The Spartans have not been held below 35 points since Oct. 4 against Nebraska.  The over/under is 45 and it's going to be a low scoring game.  The Spartans are getting a ton of public money.   It's a total mystery.  I wouldn't recommend betting on Penn State, but I wouldn't recommend not betting on them either.  Either way, I need a mid-afternoon grind tomorrow.

+ Week 14 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Penn State (+13.5) - Michigan St

//

Lines: 11/27/2014 12:00pm

Monday, November 24, 2014

Week 14

Virginia and Buffalo are road favorites.  Virginia and Buffalo are both 0-4 on the road.  Give me the home dogs.  One time.


+ Week 14 Picks --

1 Unit
Virginia Tech (+1.5) - Virginia
Massachusetts (+2) - Buffalo

//

Lines: 11/24/2014 11:00am


PS – Will be betting Penn State this week against Sparty.  Just waiting for the line to rise, then will attack.  (Currently +13.5)

Double PS – Do any of my Sparty friends like it when I pick against MSU on the Stream?



Sunday, November 23, 2014

Week 13 Recap

Watching UNC play their best game this year when I bet against them:



Outside of Duke getting pillaged by their rival North Carolina, it was almost a special week.  Stanford covered easily.  The Stream liked Kansas State but the line never reached +3 and we missed that opportunity.  We also predicted the Utah St line (-11.5) to increase and considered betting the Aggies as a value play.  Well the line closed at -14.5 and Utah St proceeded to win by 34 points.  

Coming up on rivalry week for a lot of teams.  Need to finish strong.


+ Week 13 Winners -- 
Stanford (-6) - California

+ Week 13 Losers -- 
Duke (-6) - North Carolina

+ Push -- 
North Texas (-3) - Florida Int'l

//

Last Week: 1-1-1
Season: 51-59-2 (46.4%)
Net Units: -6
Win/Loss: $-1227.21

Monday, November 17, 2014

Week 13

When I saw that Duke and Stanford were only 6-point favorites this week:


The old saying goes that when it's a rivalry game, throw the records out the window.  Well whoever said that has never seen Cal and North Carolina play defense.  Both give up over 500 yards per game, 125th and 127th in the country.  There are 128 teams.  Disgusting.


+ Week 13 Picks --

1 Unit
Stanford (-6) - California
Duke (-6) - North Carolina
North Texas (-3) - Florida Int'l

//

Lines: 11/17/2014 11:00am



PS - Strictly based on value, I think these lines will increase and are worth consideration.  Nevada -8.  Utah St -11.5. 
I also like Kansas St +2.5 vs West Virginia but think that line is going up and will wait.

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Week 12 Recap

My reaction when Florida State took the lead over Miami in the 4th quarter:


Here’s why college football is such a crazy game and people will always love it.  Last week, LSU took Alabama (the best team in the country) to overtime and arguably should have won the game in regulation.  They were tough, their defense was suffocating, Les Miles was chewing grass.  And this week, well they got rolled by a team that owned a 17-game conference losing streak (longest in the nation) and looked like a high school team trying to run the ball.  36 rushing yards on 32 rushes.  My goodness.

PS – Every fall, the leaves change, the air gets cold, and Oregon State is going to upset a ranked team in Corvallis.  Great win for the Beavers.


+ Week 12 Winners -- 
SMU (+11.5) - South Florida
Florida St (-2) - Miami FL
Tennessee (-7) - Kentucky
Oregon St (+9.5) - Arizona St

+ Week 12 Losers -- 
Idaho (-5) - Troy
LSU (+2.5) - Arkansas
Nevada (+2) - Air Force
Ball St (+3.5) - Massachusetts
Wake Forest (+17) - North Carolina St

//

Last Week: 4-5
Season: 50-58-1 (46.3%)
Net Units: -6
Win/Loss: $-1218.12

Friday, November 14, 2014

Saturday's Lineup

12pm Ohio St at Minnesota
3:30pm Miss State at Bama (The Verne Lundquist special)
3:30pm Nebraska at Wisconsin
7:15pm Auburn at Georgia (Todd Gurley II returns)
8pm Florida St at Miami

What I will look like all day Saturday.*  Planted in front of the TV.  Non-stop eating.  I'm talking from morning til night.







*Substitute that apple with Chipotle and Pequods and it's a thousand percent accurate.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Thursday Picks

A little line movement yesterday and Wake Forest is up to +17.  I like what Wake is bringing to the table lately.  No they're not even a decent football team but in the last two weeks, they've lost by 6 to Boston College and 14 to Clemson.  Covered both.  And it's not like the Wolfpack are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in Raleigh.  Oh wait...

PS - Hey Ball State
(Witness the LSU fan in the crowd... Subtle)


+ Week 12 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit
Wake Forest (+17) - North Carolina St

//

Lines: 11/13/2014 12:00pm

Monday, November 10, 2014

Week 12

Trying to predict winners in November:


We’re now into the homestretch of the regular season.  Love my picks this week.  Could go a perfect 8-0.  Hasn’t been done this season or even talked about but I think we’re looking at 8 winners.  Let’s roll.

PS – I know Florida St is a sucker line and the public is betting heavy on the Seminoles.  Well I don’t trust a freshman Miami quarterback in primetime.  Guy is going to fold.

Double PS – Keep an eye out for bad teams who appear to have little to play for other than pride and seem ready to hoist the white flag.  They will often circle one battle as their ‘bowl game’.  This was on display last week as Clemson visited Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are weak and have a remote chance at avoiding a winless ACC campaign.  But if you watched the game on Thursday night, it was readily apparent that Wake was going to fight.  They eventually lost to Clemson but Wake battled the heavily favored Tigers to a first half standstill.  On national TV at home, this was the proverbial bowl game for Wake Forest and covered the spread wire to wire.



+ Week 12 Picks --

1 Unit
SMU (+11.5) - South Florida
Florida St (-2) - Miami FL
Idaho (-5) - Troy
LSU (+2.5) - Arkansas
Tennessee (-7) - Kentucky
Nevada (+2) - Air Force
Ball St (+3.5) - Massachusetts
Oregon St (+9.5) - Arizona St

//

Lines: 11/10/2014 12:00pm