Thursday Picks

Week 1 Guide:

// Pageviews are up.  Lot of new readers.  For those that are new you will make money betting my picks in 2014.  Facts are facts.  This doesn't mean you have to bet all of them.  I list the picks in order of confidence, top to bottom.  If you only bet the ones near the top, you will clean up.  Beware: Your bookie may legit stop taking action from you.

// There is a lot of uncertainty in September and some lines will move during the week. This is the best time to take advantage.  Lines-makers get better as the season goes on.  Since Monday, many lines have moved in the direction of my picks.  The lines for Georgia Southern, Indiana, Cal Poly, Eastern Michigan, Boston College, and Washington moved 2+ points.  The Eastern Mich line moved from -9 to -15.5 within a few hours on Wednesday.  Never seen such a thing.  The point is to get your picks in early so you can capture the best lines before everyone else catches up.  It's rare but sometimes lines will go against me.  The Northern Illinois and North Texas lines are 1.5 points worse than what I posted on Monday.  This may be the biggest upset of the weekend.

// Many bookies/betting sites don't offer some of the games I posted.  This happens in the first few weeks when there are FBS vs. FCS matchups.  All of these lines come directly from 5Dimes so either get an account there or get rich off the other games.



Two more picks for Week 1.  We are going with Wisconsin in the primetime game.  The Melvin Gordon heisman campaign starts on saturday night.

+ Week 1 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Wisconsin (+5) - LSU

Montana (+13) - Wyoming

// 

Last Week: 0-0

Season: 0-0

Lines: 8/28/2014 1:00pm

Did The Mainstream Do It Again?

Longtime readers understand it's a well known fact that the Mainstream moves lines.  Wouldn't surprise me if Billy Walters visited the Stream every Monday, just waiting for the locks of the week, then heaving Ks.

Let's do a quick recap.

Week 1 picks were posted at 12pm yesterday [8/25/14].

Seriously?  I mean what other whales out there are riding the Stream's picks?  This can't be a coincidence.  Make yourself known.

Week 1

The Mainstream has come a long way since Season 1.  I guess Rome wasn’t built in a day.  Now we’re here with a full slate of games in Week 1, let’s make some money.

I plan on posting my picks with the same schedule as last year – Monday and Thursday afternoons.  Lines are taken from 5Dimes. 

Along with percentages, I am also going to record my winnings in units (dollar values).  1 unit is $100.  This will help readers see my confidence in each pick.

Week 1 has been a moneymaker for the Stream the past two years.  59% and 71%.  Let’s do it again.

+ Week 1 Picks --

4 Units

Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St

3 Units

Indiana (-23.5) - Indiana St

Kansas St (-36.5) - Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota St (+29.5) - Missouri

Cal Poly (-3) - New Mexico St

2 Units

Eastern Illinois (+15.5) - Minnesota

Eastern Michigan (-9) - Morgan St

William & Mary (+20.5) - Virginia Tech

North Dakota St (+3.5) - Iowa St

Kent St (-3) - Ohio U

Northern Illinois (-41) - Presbyterian

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi

North Texas (+24) - Texas

Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

1 Unit

Connecticut (+16.5) - BYU

Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

San Jose St (-23.5) - North Dakota

Jacksonville St (+32) - Michigan St

Washington (-15) - Hawaii

// 

Last Week: 0-0

Season: 0-0

Lines: 8/25/2014 11am

Season Totals

A lot can happen over the course of the season, injuries, transfers, the works.  But even in the worst case scenario, I see all three of these picks hitting.

+ Season Total Picks -- 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Over 6.5 (-140)

Longtime Stream readers will not be surprised. I’ve picked the Yellow Jackets as much as any other team over the years. Paul Johnson’s system is tough to prepare for in a week and they tend to wear teams down during a game.  Johnson has been a college football coach for 17 seasons and his teams have failed to reach the postseason only once.

Georgia Southern Eagles – Over 4.5 (+110)

First things first.  This team has some of the best uniforms in the game so it’s easy to get behind this pick. Like Alabama, just swap out crimson for navy.  This is Georgia Southern’s first season in the FBS and I’m not saying they make the NCAA playoff but they should compete every week.  After all this is the Georgia Southern team that took down Florida 26-20 in the Swamp last year.

Ohio Bobcats – Under 6.5 (-160)

Few teams lost as many players as Ohio following the 2013 season and there are underclassmen taking over at every key position.

A Taste For Week 1

The official kick-off to the Stream's 2014 pillage-the-sportsbooks tour will begin on Monday. But people don't like waiting for winners and if we are being honest I don't blame you guys.  After all, we know what happens to the lines when I make my picks public.

So am I going to wait until Monday to disclose all my picks?  Of course not.  Here is a taste of what we will be betting come Week 1.

I've already whaled on these 7.  The top two are my favorites, followed by the next three.  And I would like a half-point shift in the bottom two but don't see the lines moving that way.


Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St
Kent St (-3) - Ohio U.

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi
North Texas (+24) - Texas
Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

Connecticut (+16.5) - Brigham Young
Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

Check back on Monday for the rest.

UPDATE: First post coming soon

Had a few issues at Mainstream HQ today.  First post will arrive tomorrow.

PS - I'm sorry Keith

First Picks Coming Next Week

College football is back.  Buckle up.

The Corner

See You All Next Fall

2013: 85-52-3 (62.0%)
2012: 104-91-5 (53.3%)
2011: 83-48-4 (63.4%)



If you bet $1,000 on every pick, you would have earned a profit of $56,273.

2014 Season

Thanks to a suggestion by my friend Drew, I'm going to post Season Totals bets next season.  Visit the Stream in August for my +EV plays.


When I'm in Vegas next fall and the sportsbook manager asks if I want to max-bet my Season picks:

Bowl Games Recap

Winning the first bowl game and improving to 12-1 in my last 13 picks.  Approaching Mount St Helens fire flames heat.

Losing the final two games of the season:

PS - Thanks to Kevin for posting his picks in the comment section all year.  Did he win?  No, definitely not.  But there was zero quit in him.  Zero.

+ Bowl Winners -- 

Utah St (+1.5) - Northern Illinois

+ Bowl Losers -- 

Oklahoma St (+1.5) - Missouri
Georgia Tech (+3) - Mississippi


Last Week: 1-2
Season: 85-52-3 (62.0%)

Late Line Movement In The Cotton Bowl

Major line shift between Oklahoma State and Missouri.  The Stream picked OK State +1.5 on December 8th and the line held until January 1st.  OK State is now -3.

If you don't act quickly and allow the big players in Vegas to see my picks:

And for anyone who thought Vegas was going to catch up with the Stream during bowl season, nope, sorry, same old song and dance.  Maybe next year.

Bowl Games

Love these rumors of Saban going to Texas.  Be more of a mercenary Saban.

Now people are always upset with the Stream during bowl season.  35 games and I only pick a few.  Two games last year (2-0, nbd).  Starting with three games this year.


+ Bowl Plays --

Utah St (+1.5) - Northern Illinois
Oklahoma St (+1.5) - Missouri
Georgia Tech (+3) - Mississippi


Last Week: 1-0
Season: 84-50-3 (62.7%)

PS - The Stream continues to expand and sharps in Vegas are noticing.  This isn’t exactly your corner lemonade stand anymore.  Probably going to sell the website to the highest bidder in Vegas eventually.

Following my picks has been free money for 3 years.   Before complaining, maybe next time you’ll think twice and have some respect, heathens.

Week 15 Recap

The college football regular season is essentially over and that is heartbreaking, but we did finish 11-1 in our last dozen games.  Silver lining in every cloud I suppose.

Bowling Green flat out dominated Northern Illinois for four quarters.  Every year there are only a few games where you have a complete edge over the sportsbooks and this was one of those games.  Almost 80% of the bets coming in on the undefeated Northern Illinois Huskies, late line movement in Bowling Green's direction, value on top of value.

The game had everything you could want and expect from MACtion.  Big plays, big hits, fans pulling their pants down for extra points.

Ruthless?  Yes.  But show me one fanbase who doesn't try to get in the head of the opponent's kicker and I’ll show you a fanbase who doesn’t want to win bad enough for my taste.

On a related note, great showing by the San Diego fans this weekend.

In the Big Ten Championship, the entire country outside of Ohio was pulling for a Sparty victory.

Karma.

For some reason I can't explain, a picture of Urban Meyer eating postgame pizza surrounded by his family is sad.

SAD PIZZA RANKINGS: 

1. After being left at the altar 

2. Alone on Thanksgiving 

3. Post major sports loss


//


+ Week 15 Winners --

Bowling Green (+4.5) - Northern Illinois


Last Week: 1-0
Season: 84-50-3 (62.7%)

PS - My account took a hit riding all of Kevin's picks from the comment section.  0-3.  Brutal.  

When I checked my account after those three losses:

Double PS - I still think Kevin catches fire during the bowls.  Champions learn from their mistakes and conquer.  That's what Kevin is going to do in bowl season.  Conquer.

Thursday Picks

One pick this week and we're going MACtion.

Bowling Green (+4.5) - Northern Illinois

PS - Northern Illinois is playing without their husky mascot for the first time in nine years.  Can't expect that loss not to have an impact.  Without Diesel giving high fives on the sidelines this may be blowout city.

Week 15

I swear some Streamers broke out in cold sweats when I didn't release any picks locks on Monday.  Lots of variables in play this weekend.  Check back on Thursday.

Kind of unrelated but how big of a boss was Pete Carroll last night?

Wry smile?  Check.   Chomping on his gum?  Check.   Pimp walk?  Check.   Knowing you're the best?  Check mate.

Week 14 Recap

When I told my dad that the Mainstream had another glorious Saturday and is sitting on a 10-1 record for the past three weeks.

+ Week 14 Winners --

Kansas St (-16) - Kansas
Utah St (-20) - Wyoming
Iowa St (+9.5) - West Virginia
New Mexico (+35) - Boise St

+ Week 14 Losers -- 

Utah (-17) - Colorado


Last Week: 4-1
Season: 83-50-3 (62.4%)

Thursday Picks

Went to the Joe on Wednesday, Red Wings won 6-1.  Made my way to Ford Field on Thursday, Lions won 40-10.  Today my Brother Rice Warriors won their third straight high school championship 38-21.

Kind of on a hot streak.  Going to the Big House tomorrow for the best rivalry in college sports.  Will it continue?

//

No more picks this week.  Have a great weekend everyone.

Week 14

Have bet the Kansas - Kansas State game for the past 4 years.  Took the Wildcats every time.  4 wins.  I mean tell me which of these coaches you would trust in a rivalry game.  Bill Snyder the silver fox, or Chuck Weis, the guy who looks like this AFTER weight-loss surgery:

When I was looking through the lines and saw Kansas State was only favored by 16:

I know value when I see it and this pick is value city.

Lock it up and throw away the key.

+ Week 14 Plays --

Kansas St (-16) - Kansas
Utah (-17) - Colorado
Utah St (-20) - Wyoming
Iowa St (+9.5) - West Virginia
New Mexico (+35) - Boise St

Last Week: 5-0
Season: 79-49-3 (61.7%)

Week 13 Recap

Just another undefeated weekend for the Stream*.  If I’m being honest I don’t hate it.

Both picks on Thursday, Oklahoma State and North Carolina, covered by 42 points.  With Carolina winning 80-20 after three quarters, the coaches agreed to make the 4th quarter only ten minutes long.  Never seen such a thing.

+ Week 13 Winners --

Utah St (-6.5) - Colorado St
Vanderbilt (+3) - Tennessee
Mississippi St (-1.5) – Arkansas
Oklahoma St (+10) - Baylor
North Carolina (-18) - Old Dominion


Last Week: 5-0
Season: 79-49-3 (61.7%)

*I think you could argue that claiming back-to-back undefeated weeks is weak sauce since I only picked one game last Saturday, but that’s a different discussion for a different day.