+ Lasko’s Winners --
Iowa (-6.5) - Indiana
Vanderbilt (+21) - Florida
Nebraska (+5.5) - Michigan State
Iowa (-6) - Indiana
North Carolina (-7) - Duke
+ Lasko’s Losers --
Kansas (+29) - Texas
+ Push --
Marshall (+3) - Middle Tennessee State
//
The largest underdogs to win straight up:
New Mexico (+20) vs. Utah State, 14-13
The largest favorites to cover:
Louisiana Tech (-29) vs. North Texas, 56-13
Big win for #1 Clemson over Florida State. Pretty cool shot after the game.
The craziest play of the weekend happened as Arkansas beat Ole Miss in a wild shootout.
Jabrill Peppers looked impressive again on offense, defense, and special teams as Michigan beat Rutgers by 33.
In the night games, Alabama kept LSU at arm's length in the second half, while bottling up heisman candidate Leonard Fournette. Michigan State lost by 1 to Nebraska after a questionable call by the refs allowed Nebraska to score on their final drive. And in Columbus, Ohio State doubled up Minnesota 28-14, but failed to cover for the sixth time in the past eight games.
The backup QB seemed to take the loss well.
Saturday, November 7, 2015
Saturday Morning Special
+ Lasko’s Week 10 Picks --
Iowa (-6) - Indiana Marshall (+3) - Middle Tennessee State North Carolina (-7) - Duke
Line moves this week:
Nebraska didn't get sharp play all week, but it showed up this morning. The public was betting Michigan State from the open and the sharps were waiting for the higher number. They waited. This morning, they attacked. The line is now down to Nebraska +4.
I might toss a little action on Northwestern +2 against Penn State. 11:00am games in Evanston give Northwestern one of the best home-field advantages in college football. That atmosphere just sucks the life out of the opposing team.
PS - I don't love UNC -7 but I'll take my chances that Duke has a hangover game.
//
When my friends remind me that I'm the only one losing money on the Stream this year and that I should start picking winners:
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Another Week, Another Winner
Feeling fortunate the past couple of weeks. Not getting a good read on college football games but now were are getting to the meat of schedules and things are becoming a bit clearer. Has anybody realized how smart the NCAA is? They release their first rankings last night which are essentially meaningless but guess what everyone is talking about today. I think this was the NCAA earlier today looking at ratings...
Connors' Week 9 Results
L-Pittsburgh (+3) over North Carolina
W-Temple (+10.5) over Notre Dame
W-Florida (-3) over Georgia
L-Stanford (-12) over Washington State
W-Central Michigan (-3) over Akron
Connors' 2015 Record
Overall - 19-16 (54%)
Last Week - 3-2
Connors' Week 10 Picks
Pittsburgh (+8.5) over Norte Dame
Rutgers (+24.5) over Michigan
Florida St (+12.5) over Clemson
Oklahoma St. (+5.5) over TCU
Wisconsin (-12.5) over Maryland
Thoughts: The last 6 times (2008-2013) the largest margin of victory in the Pitt/ND series was Pitt by 7. Carroo is a beast for Rutgers and UM has been shredded for over 300 passing yards each of the past two games. Carroo will allow Rutgers to score at least two touchdowns and keep it within the spread. FSU/Clemson is a big time match up and we will finally see a close game for Clemson in the ACC. I said it a few weeks ago, TCU is a different team away from home and as evident last week Ok. St can keep up with the points. Wisconsin loves to blow out bad teams, it is what Wisconsin does.
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Tenacity
After starting 2-8, I had a lot of doubters. A lot of people fading my picks. A lot of people telling me to get off the
site. Insults. Death threats. You name it. Well look what has happened. Since that dismal start, I have made money 6/7
of the last weeks and have finally crawled into the green and sit at 24-21 with
my 4-1 week nine. Since week two, I have
been 22-13. Even better the past few
weeks. I think my sweet spot is the
SEC. It’s pretty easy to spot one game
or maybe even two games each week that are swayed by sports’ analyst perception
and by Feinbaum and the rest of ESPN.
Remember, it is very important to talk to your kids about the SEC myth:
Here is my trajectory so far this year. Not happy until I get well above 60%.
Overall feeling going into week ten:
Kevin's Week Nine Picks
W - USC (-5.5) over Cal
W - Clemson (-10) over NC
State
W - Miami (+11) over Duke
L - Boston College (+2.5)
over VT
W - Navy (-7) over USF (LOW)
Kevin's 2015 Record
Overall - 24-21 (53%)
Last Week – 4-1 (80%)
Lock of Week - 6-3 (66%)
Kevin's Week Ten Picks
Vanderbilt (+21) over Florida
Michigan State (-5) over Nebraska
Last Week: 1-4 Season: 19-31 (38.0%) Career: 345-286-14 (54.7%)
//
I don't want to start fading the algorithm but my bank account needs it like I need air to breathe.
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Week 9 Roundup
+ Lasko’s Winners --
Iowa State (+7) - Texas
+ Lasko’s Losers --
Central Florida (+24.5) - Cincinnati
Vanderbilt (+13) - Houston
Colorado State (+4.5) - San Diego State
Wyoming (+28) - Utah State
//
The largest underdogs to win straight up:
Miami, Fla. (+10) at Duke, 30-27
The largest favorites to cover:
Oklahoma (-39) at Kansas, 62-7
Central Michigan posted a 14-6 win on the road against Akron, improving to 5-4 (8-1 ATS). I had no idea why an extra $100 showed up in my account this morning. Then I remembered that we bet Central Michigan - Over 4 wins for the season. Always nice to hit those season-total bets before November. And with the season we've had, a silver lining in a dark cloud indeed.
In a college football season loaded with exciting plays, this week's edition took place in Durham as Miami beat Duke on the final play.
While electric, it was also illegal and never should have counted. Following the game, the ACC suspended the entire referee crew for blowing multiple calls on the play.
In a classy move, the University of Miami came out and gracefully admitted that they were lucky and the beneficiary of blown calls.
And in other news, Frank Beamer decided that he will retire at the end of the year. 29 seasons. 234 wins. What a legend.
Friday, October 30, 2015
Parity
It took some time but I finally crawled out of my 2-8 start and am sitting even at 20-20. I have had the biggest struggle picking 5 games this week than any week this season. I don't know if this will be a good or bad thing and I don't like the fact that there really isn't a lay-up SEC line this week. Thus, my efforts focus on the ACC; the fifth conference nobody talks about. In other news, this was the absolute closest I have ever been to picking Michigan but something about Kill retiring and Minnesota making this their night game paired with the fact that they have a pretty solid D and showed up for their other big game this season (TCU) has me worried. Minnesota and likely no other school will ever again have a coach that is a doppleganger to their mascot.
Overall feeling going into week nine:
Kevin's Week Eight Picks
W - Tennessee (+15.5) over Alabama L - Missouri (-3) over Vanderbilt L - Florida State (-6.5) over Georgia Tech W - Colorado (+2.5) over Oregon State W - Wisconsin (-7) over Illinois (LOW)
Kevin's 2015 Record
Overall - 20-20 (50%)
Last Week - 3-2 (60%)
Lock of Week - 5-3 (63%)
Kevin's Week Nine Picks
USC (-5.5) over Cal
Clemson (-10) over NC State
Miami (+11) over Duke
Boston College (+2.5) over VT
Navy (-7) over USF (LOW)
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Thursday Update
+ Lasko’s Week 9 Picks --
Wyoming (+28) - Utah State
//
Line moves this week:
Washington State has been a popular wise guy side the last few weeks, with good results, and the Cougars are on the sharp playlist again as they entertain Stanford.
California is drawing pro action. The sharps nailed USC in a big way last week, but they appear to be lining up against the Trojans this time.
Vanderbilt is getting wise guy money, and the sharper houses have this game one full point lower than the square shops as this is been written. The public will be backing Houston again.
//
Arizona State is wearing Pat Tillman tribute jerseys for the Oregon game tonight. Classy move.
The Sun Devils -2.5 just became the lock of the century.
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Keep On Trucking
I will take a winning week every week. And I felt good about my two loser. MSU/IND was a 5 point game with 7 minutes left in the game until IU laid an egg. It took a monsoon and Baylor's QB breaking his neck for them not to hit the over. Back at it...
Connors' Week Eight Picks
Tennessee (+15.5) over Alabama-Winner Indiana(+16.5) over Michigan State-Loser Wisconsin (-6) over Illinois-Winner Houston (-21.5) over Central Florida-Winner Baylor/ISU o79-Loser
Connors' 2015 Record
Overall - 16-14 (53%)
Last Week - 3-2
Connors' Week 9 Picks
Pittsburgh (+3) over North Carolina
Temple (+10.5) over Notre Dame
Florida (-3) over Georgia
Stanford (-12) over Washington State
Central Michigan (-3) over Akron
Thoughts: Pittsburgh is at home, where they never play. Of there 7 games, only 2 have been at home so far, which tells me they are underrated. UNC has a good offense, if only Pitt had hired the top defensive coordinator last year to head their team, hmmm. What does Temple have to do to get respect, their defense will keep it close. Take Mark Richt in a big game, dare ya. Stanford's closest game since losing week 1 has been a 10 point win on the road against USC, team is rolling. Go back and read my post after the NW game, I said take a futures bet that they will win the Pac-12. Akron has beaten Eastern, Savannah St and Louisana Lafayette, not exactly murders row, CMU walks out with an easy win.
Monday, October 26, 2015
Week 9
+ Lasko’s Week 9 Picks --
Iowa State (+7) - Texas Central Florida (+24.5) - Cincinnati Vanderbilt (+13) - Houston Colorado State (+4.5) - San Diego State
Last Week: 2-2 Season: 18-27 (40.0%) Career: 344-282-14 (55.0%)
//
When Houston runs it up on Vandy this Saturday and I ask myself why I keep fading the Cougs.
Sunday, October 25, 2015
Week 8 Roundup
+ Lasko’s Winners -- Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Florida State Temple (+3) - East Carolina
+ Lasko’s Losers -- Central Florida (+21.5) - Houston Kansas State (+7) - Texas
//
The largest underdog to win straight up:
Northwestern (+7) at Nebraska, 30-28
The largest favorite to cover:
Brigham Young (-50.5) vs. Wagner, 70-6
As predicted on the Stream, Georgia Tech was a lock. No sweat.
On the other end of the spectrum, I kinda regret my Central Florida pick. If we're looking for positives, the mascot's reaction to Houston scoring 100 unanswered points in the third quarter was sneaky hilarious.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Thursday Update
+ Lasko’s Week 8 Picks --
Kansas State (+7) - Texas
//
Line moves this week:
The sharps like USC, Alabama, Ole Miss, Colorado, and Boston College.
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Miracles
My face when I realize Dombo is on fire right now and catching right up to me.
Alright, I could go into a long winded rant about the MSU/UM game, however I won't. The game is over, my University won and I am happy. There are only two things I will say. First, go check out my score predication in my post last week, nailed it. Two, Lasko, I need to know what your boy Dave had to say, have to hear it.
Connors' Week Seven Picks
L-WVU/Baylor Under
L-FLA/LSU Under
W- MSU/UM Over
Connors' 2015 Record
Overall - 13-12 (52%)
Last Week - 1-2
Connors' Week Eight Picks
Tennessee (+15.5) over Alabama Indiana(+16.5) over Michigan State Wisconsin (-6) over Illinois Houston (-21.5) over Central Florida Baylor/ISU o79
Thoughts: Tennessee has the talent to stay with Alabama, just not the experience, this game will be close til the end until Bama pulls away at the end, plus UT had a bye week to prepare. This is a nightmare matchup for MSU, Indiana can throw and MSU has a terrible secondary. MSU is going to try and limit possessions in this game which means a close game. Wisconsin is just a better team here. Houston is playing 0-7 CFU and has the offense to cover 21 points. I finally figured out Baylor, Art Briles is on a mission this year to make the playoffs and the only way he does that with his weak non conference schedule is too pile up the points.
Have a great week.
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Pounding the Pavement
I will remain humble despite the past few weeks. As an angry unlikeable coach once said, "Pride comes before the fall". I'm putting my head down, and doing what I do, and will continue to pick winners. Although not one, nor two, but three of my friends thought week six's 4-1 record was such a fluke that they picked against every single week seven pick and coined the betting platform, "Fading Dombro". Their assumption was obviously that after such positive variance in week six, week seven would quickly revert to normalcy. What they didn't know was that the time to fade me was early. Like central limit theorem proves, with enough samples, the true sample mean will be met with predictible variance and expectations thereof. I'm not sleeping until I am well in the green.
Overall feeling going into week Eight
Kevin's Week Seven Picks
L - Kentucky (+2) over Auburn
W - Utah State (+9.5) over Boise State
W - Syracuse (+7) over Virginia
W - Notre Dame (-7) over USC
W - Alabama (-4) over Texas A&M (LOW)
Kevin's 2015 Record
Overall - 17-18 (48%)
Last Week - 4-1 (80%)
Lock of Week - 4-3 (57%)
Kevin's Week Eight Picks
Tennessee (+15.5) over Alabama Missouri (-3) over Vanderbilt Florida State (-6.5) over Georgia Tech Colorado (+2.5) over Oregon State Wisconsin (-7) over Illinois (LOW)
Monday, October 19, 2015
Week 8
+ Lasko’s Week 8 Picks --
Central Florida (+21.5) - Houston Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Florida State Temple (+3) - East Carolina
Last Week: 3-4 Season: 16-25 (39.0%) Career: 342-280-14 (55.0%)
//
UH at UCF: UCF has been terrible ATS, Houston has been covering every week. This line is so inflated it hurts. I'll take the home dog.
FSU at GT: Rematch of last year's ACC title game that was part of GT's nine-game cover streak. GT typically performs well as a dog.
Temple at EC: The Owls are undefeated and ranked for the first time since 1979. Hoot.
Wait.... Temple is undefeated?
Sunday, October 18, 2015
Week 7 Roundup
+ Lasko’s Winners --
UNC Charlotte (+8.5) - Old Dominion
North Texas (+35.5) - Western Kentucky
Nebraska (+2) - Minnesota
+ Lasko’s Losers --
Washington (-1) - Oregon
Virginia Tech (+6.5) - Miami FL
Tulane (+20.5) - Houston
Under 48 - Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
//
The largest underdogs to win straight up:
Georgia State (+14, +450 ML) at Ball State, 31-19
The largest favorites to cover:
Toledo (-28.5) vs. Eastern Michigan, 63-20
Despite a handful of highly anticipated matchups, it turned out to be just a regular saturday. No big surprises.
Leonard Fournette led LSU to a win over Florida and might have killed a guy with a stiff-arm.
Despite giving up 590 yards to USC, Notre Dame handled the Trojans. Before the game, the Irish fans viciously burned Steve Sarkisian and his drinking problem. Nice job guys.
And finally, Ohio State won its 20th straight game with a victory over Penn State while wearing some sweet black uniforms. B. Miler. Nailed it.
That's it. In hindsight it was a fairly uneventful saturday.
Thursday, October 15, 2015
Thursday Update
+ Lasko’s Week 7 Picks --
North Texas (+35.5) - Western Kentucky Tulane (+20.5) - Houston Nebraska (+2) - Minnesota Under 48 - Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
A new first for the Stream this week -- I'm fading myself. My over/under bets this year are 1-5 and honestly should be 0-6 save for a magical 4th quarter in that BYU-Boise game. The algorithm doesn't like, it LOVES the Over in Pitt/GT. Major roll of the dice here.
//
Line moves this week:
The public is banging MSU but the sharp dollars have been on Michigan. One bookie said that he's gotten hit with sharp action every week on the Wolverines and that this line apparently did not scare anyone away.
Florida is now getting sharp play. The line was adjusted for the Grier suspension and the pros decided to take the points when that happened.
Virginia Tech is getting hit pretty hard now. Speculation is that the Hokies might get Brewer back for this game, but it's also anti-Miami money.
Washington was a substantial sharp side early, and the Huskies are now also getting the bulk of the public action.
Charlotte has gotten some play, and this is a game where the volume is low and even a small dose of sharp money was going to move the line. Sidenote: The line moved from +8.5 to +5 since my post on Monday and I think we have to believe that this was caused by the Mainstream following.
//
This should be one of the best saturdays of the year. A big-time schedule, and leading the way is Michigan vs. Michigan State in the Big House.
#prayformagic
In the words of (my friend) Dave Portnoy... "Honestly this is SO disrespectful. The only thing more disrespectful than this is the fact Michigan is an 8 point favorite on Saturday. Talk about taking out a white glove and slapping Sparty in the face with it. And the best part is Michigan State won’t do anything about it. They’ll just sit there and take it like a bitch because that’s what Little Brothers do. They exist to get picked on and beat on and pushed around the ring."
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
With a grain of salt...
Nothing like a 4-0 week to get us in the green! Feels good to be on the plus side
Connors' Week Six Picks
W-Kstate +9.5
W-Ark +17
W- UM/NW Over
W-CMU +7.5
Connors' 2015 Record
Overall - 12-10 (55%)
Last Week - 4-0 (100%)
Lock of Week - 3-3 (50%)
Take the Week 7 picks with a grain of salt. I will actually be in northern michigan this weekend on a camping trip, so I won't be watching any games.
West Virginia/Baylor - Under 80 - The shoe finally falls on Baylor's offense. I see this game ending two ways. 1- Baylor gets high 40's and WVU just cant keep up and and loses something like 49-21. Or Baylor, finally playing a defense, has trouble scoring and the game is something like 35-31. Either way it is under. If you play this game wait til Saturday, it will continue to go up.
Florida/LSU Under 47.5- I can't see Florida going into LSU with a new QB and scoring much on this LSU team, conversely I don't see LSU getting much on this Florida defense. See a 20-10 type game out of this one.
UM/MSU- Over 40.5- MSU's defense will give up one long td (as they are prone to do) and UM will get some scoring drives. MSU offense will have a couple of long drives and get some points. MSU's special teams are terrible and UM will get a cheapy TD (FG block, punt return, etc). Game will finish somewhere around 24-20, maybe a bit higher.
Final Note: Isn't it great having an MSU/UM game mean something in October. The only thing I ask is that the fans embrace this like an Auburn/Bama type rivalry where we don't act like the loser is going to be terrible for the next decade. I for one want UM to be good each year along with State to make this game mean something each year. Let's enjoy it, winners get to brag for a year and we come back next year with another big game. Might be tough next year with MSU losing Cook and Michigan having 17 of their 22 starters as seniors. I think MSU pulls out a close one this year. I will always have faith in the better QB and have't seen UM in a close game in the 4th and trust Cook more than Ruddock to pull one out, but I won't be surprised if either team won.
MSU- 27 UM -23 (not a pick for the stream)
GO GREEN GO WHITE!
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Metamorphosis
Like I said, the SEC is far too predictable. If Ole Miss doesn't keep their starters in to run up the score and drop 21 second half points on a very weak NMSU, I have a perfect week. Ole Miss does what Ole Miss does best and smokes bad teams in the second half instead of shutting down and not showing any new offense. Nonetheless, these past two weeks show my metamorphosis into a good selector and I expect this to continue the rest of the season now that I have watched enough football.
My journey to a net profit this year:
Overall feeling going into week 7:
Kevin's Week Six Picks
L - New Mexico State (+43.5) over Mississippi
W - Tennessee (+3) over Georgia
W - LSU (-12) over South Carolina
W - Arkansas (+16.5) over Alabama
W - Florida (-5) over Missouri (LOW)
Kevin's 2015 Record
Overall - 13-17 (43%)
Last Week - 4-1 (80%)
Lock of Week - 3-3 (50%)
Kevin's Week Seven Picks
Kentucky (+2) over Auburn
Utah State (+9.5) over Boise State
Syracuse (+7) over Virginia
Notre Dame (-7) over USC
Alabama (-4) over Texas A&M (LOW)
Monday, October 12, 2015
Week 7
+ Lasko’s Week 7 Picks --
Washington (-1) - Oregon Virginia Tech (+6.5) - Miami FL UNC Charlotte (+8.5) - Old Dominion
Last Week: 2-3 Season: 13-21 (38.2%) Career: 339-276-14 (55.1%)
//
This might be it for Oregon. 3-3 record, 1-2 in the Pac-12. Bragging about 4,893 uniform combinations is all fun and games until you realize you’re an underdog against Washington. With that said, the Huskies are 0-11 vs. the line against the Ducks since 2003.
Va Tech and Miami are similar teams. Beamer is 4-1 as a visiting dog the past two years. Take the points and expect a close game.
Old Dominion is 0-5 ATS this year, 2-11 in their last 13, and their offense averages less than 300 yards/gm.
PS – A lot of people chirping me about my UofM/MSU prediction last week. People saying it would be a pick’em game. People saying that there’s no chance Michigan would be favored by a touchdown.
