Week 3

+ Lasko’s Week 3 Picks --

Illinois (+10.5) - North Carolina
Memphis (-2.5) - Bowling Green
Kansas State (-9) - Louisiana Tech

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Last Week: 3-3
Season: 5-6 (45.5%)
Career: 331-261-14 (55.9%)


Game notes --

Illinois - North Carolina: The Illini have outscored the opposition 96-3 so far this season, good for a 2-0 SU/ATS mark.

Memphis - Bowling Green: The Tigers beat Kansas 55-23 last week and demoralized their fans in the process.

Week 2 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Western Kentucky (+1) - Louisiana Tech
BYU (+3) - Boise State
Over 55 - BYU vs. Boise State

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
North Texas (+5.5) - SMU
Rutgers (-2) - Washington State
Marshall (-3.5) - Ohio

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The largest underdog to win straight up:
Toledo (+21.5, ML +925) at Arkansas, 16-12

The largest favorite to cover:
TCU (-45) vs. Stephen F. Austin, 70-7

Nine Top-10 teams won, with only Oregon slipping up because they were facing a fellow Top 10 team in Michigan State.  Top 10 teams managed to go just 3-7 ATS.

The state of Michigan swept Oregon as Harbaugh got his first win as the Wolverines' head coach against Oregon State, and MSU avenged last year's loss in Eugene by edging Oregon 31-28 in East Lansing.

Notre Dame needed some late heroics to stun Virginia in Charlottesville.  With :12 left, backup QB DeShone Kizer connected with Will Fuller to kill moneyline bettors of the Cavaliers.... and this fan.

BYU was at it again.  Easy money.  Boise State held a 24-14 lead heading into the fourth quarter before BYI took a 28-24 lead with :45 left in regulation, and then added a pick-six 15 seconds later.  Never in doubt.

They're also willing to go all out on every play, although nut shots have to be frowned upon in the Mormon religion you’d assume.

Bret Bielema made some headlines last week when he complained about the his team's tough schedule.

In the bad beat department, Boston College was a 44-point favorite over Howard.  They ran out to a 41-0 lead after one quarter, and 62-0 at half.  The third and fourth quarters were shortened to 10 minutes a piece, and 55 minutes is official for action, so the game was graded as a 'no play' despite the utter domination by BC.

Thursday Update

No more picks today.  Sticking with the five sides and a total.

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Line moves this week:
Michigan is getting pro cash and the consensus seems to be that this number will continue to creep north.

Notre Dame has been attractive to both sharps and the public.

Penn State was hit reasonably hard by some sharps early in the week.

Stanford was hit hard on Tuesday. It has since leveled out to some extent but the books will probably be rooting for UCF here.

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And taking you into the weekend, Les Miles thinks the AP Top 25 should be 25 SEC teams.  Hot take city.  

Les must still be recovering from last week when he was rushed to the hospital after OD'ing on coffee.

Deep in the Couch Cushions Picks

Hello All,

I will be contributing on Wednesdays.  Lasko got me into this world about 2 years ago and been hooked since.  My best memory is last year grinding a San Jose St. game at 1am on ESPN Gamecast (game wasn’t on TV).  San Jose St. had to drive the length of the field with under 2 minutes to cover.  The flurry of text messages and lines moving across the was the most exciting football I watched all day.  I will be posting a couple of games that stand out to me each week. Here they are for Week 2.

Michigan -15.5 - Admit it, the first thing you did when you saw this line was think Oregon State will easily cover this, this is too easy*.  Then I realized that is what they want me to do.  Oregon is coming from the west coast to play @ noon (9am for them). Harbaugh’s first game @ the big house, place is going to be electric. And Michigan would have beat Utah sans all the turnovers.  Harbaugh fixes that this week and UM rolls.

*Last year there was an NFL game, Steelers at Jets, in which the oddsmakers gave the Jets an advantage and everybody couldn’t believe it and bet their mother on the Steelers.  What happened? Steelers lost to the Jets 20-13 and the Wise Guys and oddsmakers laughed all the way to the bank. Moral of the Story- If a line seems to good to be true, it is!

Stanford -19 -  I am sure the public will be all over UCF after the disaster of a game Stanford played last week.  This is the classic buy low opportunity.  Heck, go buy some futures on Stanford winning the Pac-12, great value.  Stanford will play this game angry and win by 20+.  with UCF taking a long trip across country.  

Hawaii +40 - +40, are you kidding me!  That is reserved for a FCS school.  Think in the NFL how difficult it is for a team to play on Monday night and then play next Sunday.  OSU has to do the same thing but play on Saturday.  That Va Tech game was closer than the score indicated.  Hawaii brings in a Norm Chow as a coach and a former USC Trojan as their QB.  This is Hawaii’s bowl game.  **OSU wins this game easy but Meyer will be bring in the backups early to save some energy.  

**This is what Urbz does not want to happen when his starters are up by 20+

Week 2

+ Lasko’s Week 2 Picks --

North Texas (+5.5) - SMU
Rutgers (-2) - Washington State
Marshall (-3.5) - Ohio
Western Kentucky (+1) - Louisiana Tech
BYU (+3) - Boise State
Over 55 - BYU vs. Boise State


Last Week: 2-3
Season: 2-3 (40%)
Career: 328-258-14 (56.0%)

Game notes --

North Texas – SMU: North Texas won this game 43-6 last year.  SMU is 1-14 in its last 15 games.  Give me the points por favor.

Rutgers – Washington State: Academic scandals, arrested players, no big deal -- Rutgers won 63-13 last week, meanwhile Wazzu is absolutely rattled right now.  They were upset at home by Portland State as a 30 point favorite.  Since 1980 there have been 1,235 teams favored by 30 points or more and only 14 of those teams have lost outright.

Marshall – Ohio: If Marshall can beat a Big Ten powerhouse like Purdue in week one, they’ll have no trouble with Ohio.  Got this line at -3.

Western Kentucky – Louisiana Tech: Western Kentucky was favored at the open.  Now that they're catching points, I'm all over this.  One time Hilltoppers.

BYU – Boise State: These teams are meeting for the fourth straight season with the home team having won the previous three matchups. We might need another hail mary as the clock expires but I’m expecting BYU to pull off the win.

Humiliation

You know that feeling when you are super confident about something and extremely excited to kick it off and then it just starts off as a disaster and an embarrassment and you are completely ashamed?  Well I don't feel it at all right now.   Even after going 1-4 (probably should have gone 0-5) and making not bad but horrible picks.   First week is a coin flip and unfortunately I picked the wrong side a few too many times.  As the motto goes, "Start fast, finish last".  Now that I actually saw some of these teams play I could not be more confident about my week two picks and am prepared to turn this train back around and gain some momentum.

Overall feeling going into week 2:

Kevin's Week One Picks and Results

W - South Carolina (-2) over North Carolina

L - Oklahoma State (-23.5) over Central Michigan

L - Penn State (-6.5) over Temple

L - Mississippi State (-23.5) over Southern Mississippi

L - Texas State (+30) over Florida State (Lock of Week)

Kevin's 2015 Record

Overall - 1-4 (20%)

Last Week - 1-4 (20%)

Lock of Week - 0-1 (0%)

Kevin's Week Two Picks

FAU (+17.5) over Miami

Notre Dame (-11.5) over Virginia

Eastern Illinois (+23) over Northwestern

Michigan State (-3.5) over Oregon

Clemson (-17) over App State (Lock of Week)

Week 1 Roundup

The feeling when your last two picks bust and you finish under 50%...

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Central Michigan (+24.5) - Oklahoma State
Washington (+12) - Boise State

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
Wisconsin (+10.5) - Alabama
Mississippi State (-21) - Southern Miss
Under 60 – Arizona vs. Texas-San Antonio

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The largest underdog to win straight up:
Portland State (+30) at Washington State, 24-17

The largest favorite to cover:
Colorado State (-51) vs. Savannah State, 65-13

Despite Virginia Tech not being able to cover against Ohio State Monday night, home underdogs had a great opening weekend to the college football season, going an impressive 11-3 against the spread.

JT Barrett recorded just one pass and one run vs. Va. Tech and still had 22 more total yards than Christian Hackenberg generated vs. Temple and the Owls' two-man rush.

Still bullish on Penn State for the next four years mostly entirely due to special teams.

And finally, we have Northwestern doing Northwestern things after their upset win over Stanford.

Thursday Update

A few hours from kickoff… College Football is back.

*At 11pm tonight*

+ Lasko’s Week 1 Picks --

Under 60 – Arizona vs. Texas-San Antonio


Texas-San Antonio has six returning starters and what appears to be holes almost everywhere. Even if RichRod hangs 50, there’s a good chance the Roadrunners don’t reach the endzone tonight.

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A comment on the Week 1 post got me thinking about over/unders. Going to bring those into play this year. Thanks Anonymous.

PS - Great to have Kevin on the Stream every Tuesday.  If history has taught us anything, it's taught us this -- When you see "Lock of the Week", run in the opposite direction.  Don't walk.  Run.

We still have an opening on Wednesday if anyone is interested in posting their picks each week. 

There's a New Kid in the Neighborhood (kind of)

By popular demand, (AKA Laske's request), I will no longer post my picks in the comment section and instead post them alongside Laske as posts.  Read: Make sure you look at who posts the picks before taking any action!  Because this is the first year I'm bringing my picks outside of the comment section, I am throwing out all previous records.  Let's just say that shorting my picks the past three years might have been the only more profitable bet than Laske pre-2014 season.  The rules for my pics are simple.  I am making five picks a week that I believe offer the best value against the field.  No matter how attractive or unattractive a week is, I will pick 5 games.  My picks will be in by Wednesday each week and they will be based off of the covers line as of the time my picks are in.  I also have one Lock of the week which is my most confident pick of the week. I will track overall record, previous week's record, and lock of week (LOW) record.  We have different styles for picks.

Laske built an algorithm based on a ton of research and heavy studies and many books.

I on the other hand, have a less formal and more natural "feel" approach.

Let's get this going.  Week 1, here we go.

Kevin's Week 1 Picks

South Carolina (-2) over North Carolina

Oklahoma State (-23.5) over Central Michigan

Penn State (-6.5) over Temple

Mississippi State (-23.5) over Southern Mississippi

Texas State (+30) over Florida State (Lock of Week)

Week 1

Not the strongest showing last year but shooters keeps shooting.  Doesn't matter how many shots they brick or how many duds they post on their blog.

Little bit of a new format this year.  Each week I’m going to post the top picks -- probably a top 5.  That’s it.  Back to basics.  Same schedule -- Mondays/Thursdays.  Lines will be taken from 5Dimes on Monday mornings.


+ Lasko's Week 1 Picks --

Wisconsin (+10.5) - Alabama
Central Michigan (+24.5) - Oklahoma State
Mississippi State (-21) - Southern Miss
Washington (+12) - Boise State

//

Last Week: 0-0
Season: 0-0
Career: 326-255-14 (56.1%)

Game notes -- 

Wisconsin - Bama: Both teams are going to load the box and stop the run. If the Badgers can force Bama into obvious passing situations, there’s no McCarron, McElroy, or (my favorite) John Parker Wilson to move the chains.  Expect a low-scoring game.

Central Michigan – Oklahoma State: *scene* OK State players are bored on Wednesday night in Mount Pleasant, head over to O’Kelly’s, get trashed, leave at 5am (Varsity Blues style), sleep through their alarms, barely make the team bus, and look heinous in the first half.

Mississippi State – Southern Miss: Dan Mullen will run up the score to help Dak Prescott’s heisman campaign. 

Washington – Boise State: The appetizer for Saturday -- This is the friday night game on espn, and that means we get Quint Kessenich patrolling the sidelines. Always nice to see Quint out there competing early in the season.

PS – The lines are moving a lot today. If you see a number that is a half point off, just wait – it will come back.

Season Totals

People keep chirping me "Hey when are you going to post your picks?"  I mean I get it.  3-0 last year without breaking a sweat.  Well I'm just here to give the people what they want.  We're doubling down this year and honestly 6-0 is possible, if not likely.


+ Season Total Picks – 


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Over 7.5 (-175)
It’s the same story as last year -- rinse, wash, repeat.  Georgia Tech was listed at -6.5 and finished 10-2.  Bookies should just credit our accounts now.

As a quick recap.... The longtime Streamers will not be surprised here. I’ve picked the Yellow Jackets as much as any other team over the years and they rarely let us down. Paul Johnson’s system is tough to prepare for in a week and they tend to wear teams down during a game.  Paul Johnson has been a college football head coach for 17 18 seasons. In those 17 18 years, his teams have failed to reach the postseason only once.


Central Michigan Chippewas – Over 4 (-150)
Chippewa nation stand up!  Dan Enos is out.  New head coach John Bonamego is in.  The Chips won seven games last year and Cooper Rush, last seen throwing an FBS bowl-record seven touchdown passes in the Bahamas Bowl, is back at QB.  Digging into the schedule -- Monmouth, Buffalo, Akron, Kent State, Eastern Michigan all lie ahead.  Tell me the Chips don't get to five wins this year. You can't.


Florida State Seminoles – Under 9.5 (-120)
When Jameis Winston met with reporters at the NFL combine, he was asked how difficult it was to leave Florida State and declare for the draft.  Winston responded that his top receiver, top tight end, four offensive linemen and a senior running back were invited to the combine as well. He asked, “If you were playing quarterback at Florida State, what would you do?”

Now as for what's left in Tallahassee, they got players hitting women in bars, getting arrested... No bueno.  Give me one upset in addition to losses at Georgia Tech and at Clemson and we're hitting the under.

Also it has to be mentioned that the FSU war chant is the worst thing in sports.  2 yard pass on first down, war chant.  Incomplete pass on defense, war chant.  It's literally all they have.  Well, the chant and Renegade.  I sneaky like Renegade.

Boston College Eagles – Over 5.5 (-105)
Since Steve Addazio took over a 2-10 team three years ago, he’s put together back-to-back winning seasons.  He also has that certain "it" factor where he is willing to the hit the Chain Gang guy for falling down and getting in his way.

As if the Chain Gang doesn’t get disrespected enough to begin with. Like there was nobody in the stadium who felt worse about falling down than the Chain Gang Guy. Everybody else trying to help him up only to get backhanded by Addazio.  Can't teach that kind of passion.

The Eagles aren't flashy but they’ll play everyone tough.  This team punches the clock.  The running game should be solid, led by Jon Hilliman, who gained 860 yards with 13 touchdowns last fall.  The strength of the team is the front seven on defense.  Expect the Eagles to repeat as one of the top defenses in the country against the run.  A year ago, the Eagles finished second only to Michigan State in rush defense.


Northern Illinois Huskies – Under 8.5 (+110)
First things first.  This will be the first season since 2004 that we don't have Diesel, the blue-eyed husky, on Northern Illinois' sideline.  Retired.  Gone forever.  Can’t be overstated.

You also have to think they have no confidence following their 52-23 defeat to Marshall in the Boca Raton bowl.  Tough to recover from a bloodbath like that.


Washington Huskies – Over 4.5 (-160)
It's Chris Petersen’s second season and oh my are there are a lot of question marks.  Just nine starters return.  The defensive front seven must be completely rebuilt.  A new quarterback needs to be broken in. But while everyone is expecting a rebuilding year, I also see home games against Sacramento State, Utah State, Cal, and Washington State.  There's five wins right there.


PS – I also loved Akron at Under 7.5 but didn’t bet it cause of the juice, -195. Today the odds are up to -220.  I mean Akron at 7.5 wins, you kidding me? Who's setting these lines?

1 Week....

Well this is it.  We made it.  Labor day weekend is directly ahead and that means one thing… college football.

Big slate of games ahead of us.  Stock the fridge.  Place your bets.  Nothing gets the heart racing like the first weekend.  Mental preparation is key.

Coming Soon....

2015 Season

See you again in August for next season's over/under bets. (Went 3-0 this year, nbd.)

The final record was 54-64-2 (45.8%).  If I had to describe this season via gif:

In the long run, this was a bump in the road.  A bump that definitely caused a few flat tires but a bump nonetheless.  We'll be back this fall and put Mainstream back on the map.

Bowl Games Recap

What Oregon did to Florida State in the Rose Bowl:

+ Bowl Winners -- 

Ohio State (+9.5) - Alabama

South Carolina (+4) - Miami FL

+ Bowl Losers -- 

Florida St (+9.5) - Oregon

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Last Week: 2-1

Season: 54-64-2 (45.8%)

Net Units: -8

Win/Loss: $-1454.48

Bowl Games

Update on the Stream's climb to 50%:

If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times, always bet on Urban Meyer when he's an underdog.  I mean everyone knew that his team would come to play in the Big Ten championship and Cardale Jones would sling it all over the field.  Now the question has to be asked, does Ohio State cover against Bama or do the Buckeyes win outright?

+ Bowl Picks --

1 Unit

Ohio State (+9.5) - Alabama

Florida St (+9.5) - Oregon

South Carolina (+4) - Miami FL

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Lines: 12/16/2014 8:00pm

Week 15 Recap

Well....

+ Week 15 Winners -- 

+ Week 15 Losers -- 

Florida St (-3.5) - Georgia Tech

Wisconsin (+4) - Ohio St

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Last Week: 0-2

Season: 52-63-2 (45.2%)

Net Units: -9

Win/Loss: $-1536.30

Week 15 Picks

In a first for the Stream, my algorithm found no value on a college football Saturday.  In the model's view, the lines are priced correctly across the board.

With that said I have a slight lean in two games, and by slight lean I mean that I will be getting aggressive at the sportsbook.  My gut feeling is that Florida State and Wisconsin both cover.

With Georgia Tech losing their best receiver, I think they become one-dimensional and FSU's defense shuts them down.  DeAndre Smelter had 715 receiving yards for the Yellow Jackets this year.  The next closest was Darren Waller with 255.  That's for the year.  The entire year.  It pains me to bet against Zach Laskey, I mean the guy is just a touchdown machine (9 total TDs this year), but this is business.

FSU -3.5

With Ohio State, first thing's first.  Cardale Jones can't pass.  Cardale Jones can't run.  The question mark is how much of an impact Jalin Marshall will have on the game.  Either way, there's the chance that the Buckeyes offense just implodes and if that happens, I want to be on the other side.

Wisconsin -4

Week 15 - Championship Week

The Stream's performance this year summarized in one gif:

Some interesting games on the slate this weekend.  How will Ohio State's offense look without JT Barrett?  Will Oregon look to make a statement after getting embarrassed by Arizona the last two years?  Should the line in the SEC title game really be 14.5 points?

Check back on Thursday.

Week 14 Recap

Saturday was exactly why you don't mess with college football in November.  I woke up on Saturday thinking all of my calculated plays were going to go undefeated.  Before I know it, up is down, down is up and I can't make sense of anything.  I mean look at the Michigan - Ohio State game.  Gardner's first pass of the game sails right into the hands of an OSU safety, Vonn Bell.  Unrelated but kinda related, it may have been Bell's second best catch of the game.

Anyways, OSU scores a few plays later.  I got 75 texts from friends all saying the same thing... This is going to be a blowout!!!  Fast forward and the game has turned into a battle.  If not for a few coaching blunders by Hoke, Michigan would be leading in the 3rd quarter and there's no chance OSU covers the 21 points.  Oh wait, the Buckeyes score two touchdowns in 50 seconds and now lead 42-21.  But there's still a few minutes left and yep, Michigan backdoors the cover with a minute to go.  Vintage November football.  Almost impossible to predict.

+ Week 14 Winners -- 

Virginia Tech (+1.5) - Virginia

+ Week 14 Losers -- 

Massachusetts (+2) - Buffalo

Penn State (+13.5) - Michigan St

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Last Week: 1-2

Season: 52-61-2 (46.0%)

Net Units: -7

Win/Loss: $-1336.30

PS - Hey Coach Hoke,