Week 4 Recap

When a winning record was locked in the books:

Outside of Virginia's late TD against BYU, the rest of the 2-unit games went as planned.  Nebraska over Miami with a -7 line was highway robbery.  Expect the Stream to feed results like this the rest of the season.

+ Week 4 Winners -- 

Appalachian St (+3.5) - Southern Miss

Nebraska (-7) - Miami FL

Indiana (+17) - Missouri

Miami OH (+29) - Cincinnati

Georgia Tech (+7.5) - Virginia Tech

Memphis (-7.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Washington St (+23.5) - Oregon

Minnesota (-8.5) - San Jose St

Wake Forest (+2.5) - Army

+ Week 4 Losers -- 

Brigham Young (-15) - Virginia

Bowling Green (+27) - Wisconsin

Rice (-6.5) - Old Dominion

Arizona (-8) - California

//

Last Week: 9-4

Season: 27-30 (47.4%)

Net Units: +2

Win/Loss: $-199.96

Thursday Picks

When the Stream continues to find value early in the week:

In a perfect world the sportsbooks would give Stream readers more than an hour to make picks but I supposed that's the nature of this cut-throat business.  Just an instant shift after I posted my picks on Monday.

I found a report on pregame.com that is posted by a wiseguy (Dave Cokin). When his notes about betting action are relevant to my picks, I’ll post them here. 

// Indiana is off a bad loss to Bowling Green but the Hoosiers attracted early sharp money against Missouri.

// Wisconsin has been getting heavy play right from the opening bell, but it’s not necessarily sharp dough. The line increased five points to -27. The Stream will be siding with the house and pulling for a Bowling Green cover.

// I didn’t bet Akron but they are getting plenty of play from pros. This will be a popular side for sharps but the public is going to be on the favorite, creating a pros vs. joes duel.

+ Week 4 Picks (Thursday) --

2 Units

Washington St (+23.5) - Oregon

Minnesota (-8.5) - San Jose St

1 Unit

Bowling Green (+27) - Wisconsin

Rice (-6.5) - Old Dominion

Arizona (-8) - California

Wake Forest (+2.5) - Army

//

Lines: 9/18/2014 12:00pm

Week 4

When Stream readers see my picks at the end of the week and notice all the lines have moved:

Absolutely love the lineup this week.  Tossing out 7 games early, I think we’ll see some big moves.  Is this the week that the Stream turns it around? 

+ Week 4 Picks --

2 Units

Brigham Young (-15) - Virginia

Appalachian St (+3.5) - Southern Miss

Nebraska (-7) - Miami FL

1 Unit

Indiana (+17) - Missouri

Miami OH (+29) - Cincinnati

Georgia Tech (+7.5) - Virginia Tech

Memphis (-7.5) - Middle Tennessee St

//

Last Week: 4-6

Season: 18-26 (40.9%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-881.79

Lines: 9/15/2014 12:00pm

Week 3 Recap

This is what many would call a bad run.  The Stream continues to find edge.  It was nice to see two of the double-digit underdogs (Iowa State and Boston College) win outright.  On the other hand, the close losses were brutal.  Penn State and UConn missed covering by a half-point. Old Dominion closed at -20 and the Stream locked it in at -15; so much value.  They won by 14.  Western Kentucky went to Triple OT before missing the cover by two points.  Once the Stream starts finishing on the other side of these coinflips, it’s going to be a big move.

+ Week 3 Winners -- 

Stanford (-28) - Army

Iowa St (+12.5) - Iowa

Georgia St (+12) - Air Force

Boston College (+19.5) - Southern Cal

+ Week 3 Losers -- 

Western Kentucky (+1) - Middle Tennessee St

Penn State (-3.5) - Rutgers

Arkansas St (+17) - Miami FL

Old Dominion (-15) - Eastern Michigan

Vanderbilt (-17) - Massachusetts

Connecticut (+16.5) - Boise St

//

Last Week: 4-6

Season: 18-26 (40.9%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-881.79

Week 3 - Saturday Special

We have an interesting fact that was discovered by a Stream reader.  The Mainstream's lock of the week [top pick listed] is 16-1 over the last 17 weeks.  Heat check city.

Was away most of this week and wasn't able to post on Thursday.  Got chirped at by many of you.  That being said I'll toss out a Saturday morning special.

//

When I'm just trying to lay on the couch and watch football today while my girlfriend keeps asking to go to the apple orchard:

+ Week 3 Picks  --

1 Unit

Connecticut (+16.5) - Boise St

Week 3

Watching the games at the bar on Saturday:

Have the first two weeks gone as planned?  Absolutely not.  But now we're here and there are only a couple plays left in the playbook so to speak.  Need a big week.

As an aside, I thought about dropping my current strategy and simply fading Big Ten teams.  Every one.  Seems like that's a 1000% guaranteed move to win money this year.

+ Week 3 Picks --

2 Units

Stanford (-28) - Army

1 Unit

Western Kentucky (+1) - Middle Tennessee St

Penn State (-3.5) - Rutgers

Iowa St (+12.5) - Iowa

Georgia St (+12) - Air Force

Boston College (+19.5) - Southern Cal

Arkansas St (+17) - Miami FL

Old Dominion (-15) - Eastern Michigan

Vanderbilt (-17) - Massachusetts

//

Last Week: 4-9

Season: 14-20 (41.2%)

Net Units: -5

Win/Loss: $-736.34

Lines: 9/8/2014 12:00pm

Week 2 Recap

Classic good news bad news situation.  On the positive side, the line moves continued to move in our direction for the second week in a row.   We are getting great value across the board.  On the negative, the games are horrendous.  Heinous efforts from a lot of teams.  Specifically looking at you Vanderbilt.  We lost a few close games early and then when New Mexico State scored a TD with 15 seconds left in their game. 

Overall I’m not overly concerned.  Yeah the short term variance sucks but we are in this for the long con.

PS – On the bright side at least the Mainstream is winning more than the Big Ten. 

+ Week 2 Winners -- 

Wyoming (+2.5) - Air Force

Penn State (-14) - Akron

Utah (-10.5) - Fresno St

Old Dominion (+17) - North Carolina St

+ Week 2 Losers -- 

Ohio State (-10.5) - Virginia Tech

Georgia St (pk) - New Mexico St

Vanderbilt (+20) - Mississippi

Western Kentucky (+6) - Illinois

Texas Tech (-18.5) - UTEP

Duke (-19) - Troy

Kent St (+3) - South Alabama

Towson (+28.5) - West Virginia

South Carolina St (+35) - Clemson

Florida Atlantic (+40.5) - Alabama was cancelled

//

Last Week: 4-9

Season: 14-20 (41.2%)

Net Units: -5

Win/Loss: $-736.34

Thursday Picks

Big games on the schedule this Saturday.  Leading the way is the last meeting between Michigan and Notre Dame.  And by leading the way I mean it's the 4th most relevant game in the college football world on saturday, though it will decidedly draw one of the biggest TV ratings of the year.  Hat-tip to that 50-70 age demographic in the midwest.

Fun fact: Michigan is 24-16-1 vs. the Irish with the 8-game difference all accounted for in the first 8 games of the series. (Michigan outscored Notre Dame 121-16 with 5 shutouts).  If we're not counting victories before the wheel was invented, it's been an even back-and-forth rivalry.

In other big games, Michigan State (7) visits Oregon (3), USC (14) visits Stanford (13), and Virginia Tech visits Ohio State (8) in the horseshoe.

[Every stream reader after collecting their Week 2 winnings]

+ Week 2 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Old Dominion (+17) - North Carolina St

Breaking News: More Lines Posted

A rare Wednesday post on the Stream.  Yesterday only 44 of this week's 74 games had lines.  Well 5Dimes just opened lines for the rest.  They tried to catch us sleeping at the end of the workday but nothing gets by the Mainstream.  Head on a swivel at all times.


+ Week 2 Picks (Wednesday) --

2 Units
Towson (+28.5) - West Virginia

1 Unit
South Carolina St (+35) - Clemson

Full post coming tomorrow afternoon.

PS - When Dana Holgorsen realizes his Mountaineers are in a close game with Towson:

Week 2

My intensity level while scouting the games this week:

It’s a new week and we have the sportsbooks right where we want them.  Oh, it was a subpar week 1?  Perfect.  Now is the time take advantage.  “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”  Sun Tzu, ever heard of him?

Plain and simple, you just can’t stop the Stream every week.  Not possible.  

+ Week 2 Picks --

2 Units

Wyoming (+2.5) - Air Force

Penn State (-14) - Akron

1 Unit

Ohio State (-10.5) - Virginia Tech

Georgia St (pk) - New Mexico St

Vanderbilt (+20) - Mississippi

Western Kentucky (+6) - Illinois

Utah (-10.5) - Fresno St

Texas Tech (-18.5) - UTEP

Florida Atlantic (+40.5) - Alabama

Duke (-19) - Troy

Kent St (+3) - South Alabama

// 

Last Week: 10-11

Season: 10-11 (47.6%)

Net Units: -1

Win/Loss: $-281.80

Lines: 9/2/2014 1:00pm

Week 1 Recap

If there’s anything to take from Week 1, it’s the line movements.  Absurd.  I’m not saying that I’m more confident going into Week 2 after a 10-11 weekend but I am.

The 4-unit bet was such a lock it hurts.  I mean I’m not sure how Georgia Southern lost by a point seeing they were up 10 points with the ball and 6 minutes to go, but it was as easy a cover as you’ll see.

On the other hand I can’t believe the Eastern Michigan line closed at -17, we locked it in at -9, and the Eagles didn’t cover.  In hindsight I probably would have known the bet was doomed the moment Eastern Michigan took the field.  Can’t imagine the hundred fans in Ypsilanti were impressed with this sideshow.

Classic case of overthinking an entrance.  Keep it simple guys.  A little music, some cheerleaders, a flag, it works.  Let’s not reinvent the wheel here.  Skip the concrete next week.

+ Week 1 Winners -- 

Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St

Kansas St (-36.5) - Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota St (+29.5) - Missouri

North Dakota St (+3.5) - Iowa St

Northern Illinois (-41) - Presbyterian

Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

San Jose St (-23.5) - North Dakota

Wisconsin (+5) - LSU

Montana (+13) - Wyoming

+ Week 1 Losers -- 

Indiana (-23.5) - Indiana St

Cal Poly (-3) - New Mexico St

Eastern Illinois (+15.5) - Minnesota

Eastern Michigan (-9) - Morgan St

William & Mary (+20.5) - Virginia Tech

Kent St (-3) - Ohio U

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi

North Texas (+24) - Texas

Connecticut (+16.5) - BYU

Jacksonville St (+32) - Michigan St

Washington (-15) - Hawaii

//

Last Week: 10-11

Season: 10-11 (47.6%)

Net Units: -1

Win/Loss: $-281.80

Recap and Week 2 Picks

Watching everything play out over the weekend and losing close games where we had a huge edge.

With Labor Day, the recap and Week 2 Picks will come tomorrow afternoon.  Everyone have a great holiday and enjoy their last taste of summer.

Thursday Picks

Week 1 Guide:

// Pageviews are up.  Lot of new readers.  For those that are new you will make money betting my picks in 2014.  Facts are facts.  This doesn't mean you have to bet all of them.  I list the picks in order of confidence, top to bottom.  If you only bet the ones near the top, you will clean up.  Beware: Your bookie may legit stop taking action from you.

// There is a lot of uncertainty in September and some lines will move during the week. This is the best time to take advantage.  Lines-makers get better as the season goes on.  Since Monday, many lines have moved in the direction of my picks.  The lines for Georgia Southern, Indiana, Cal Poly, Eastern Michigan, Boston College, and Washington moved 2+ points.  The Eastern Mich line moved from -9 to -15.5 within a few hours on Wednesday.  Never seen such a thing.  The point is to get your picks in early so you can capture the best lines before everyone else catches up.  It's rare but sometimes lines will go against me.  The Northern Illinois and North Texas lines are 1.5 points worse than what I posted on Monday.  This may be the biggest upset of the weekend.

// Many bookies/betting sites don't offer some of the games I posted.  This happens in the first few weeks when there are FBS vs. FCS matchups.  All of these lines come directly from 5Dimes so either get an account there or get rich off the other games.



Two more picks for Week 1.  We are going with Wisconsin in the primetime game.  The Melvin Gordon heisman campaign starts on saturday night.

+ Week 1 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Wisconsin (+5) - LSU

Montana (+13) - Wyoming

// 

Last Week: 0-0

Season: 0-0

Lines: 8/28/2014 1:00pm

Did The Mainstream Do It Again?

Longtime readers understand it's a well known fact that the Mainstream moves lines.  Wouldn't surprise me if Billy Walters visited the Stream every Monday, just waiting for the locks of the week, then heaving Ks.

Let's do a quick recap.

Week 1 picks were posted at 12pm yesterday [8/25/14].

Seriously?  I mean what other whales out there are riding the Stream's picks?  This can't be a coincidence.  Make yourself known.

Week 1

The Mainstream has come a long way since Season 1.  I guess Rome wasn’t built in a day.  Now we’re here with a full slate of games in Week 1, let’s make some money.

I plan on posting my picks with the same schedule as last year – Monday and Thursday afternoons.  Lines are taken from 5Dimes. 

Along with percentages, I am also going to record my winnings in units (dollar values).  1 unit is $100.  This will help readers see my confidence in each pick.

Week 1 has been a moneymaker for the Stream the past two years.  59% and 71%.  Let’s do it again.

+ Week 1 Picks --

4 Units

Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St

3 Units

Indiana (-23.5) - Indiana St

Kansas St (-36.5) - Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota St (+29.5) - Missouri

Cal Poly (-3) - New Mexico St

2 Units

Eastern Illinois (+15.5) - Minnesota

Eastern Michigan (-9) - Morgan St

William & Mary (+20.5) - Virginia Tech

North Dakota St (+3.5) - Iowa St

Kent St (-3) - Ohio U

Northern Illinois (-41) - Presbyterian

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi

North Texas (+24) - Texas

Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

1 Unit

Connecticut (+16.5) - BYU

Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

San Jose St (-23.5) - North Dakota

Jacksonville St (+32) - Michigan St

Washington (-15) - Hawaii

// 

Last Week: 0-0

Season: 0-0

Lines: 8/25/2014 11am

Season Totals

A lot can happen over the course of the season, injuries, transfers, the works.  But even in the worst case scenario, I see all three of these picks hitting.

+ Season Total Picks -- 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Over 6.5 (-140)

Longtime Stream readers will not be surprised. I’ve picked the Yellow Jackets as much as any other team over the years. Paul Johnson’s system is tough to prepare for in a week and they tend to wear teams down during a game.  Johnson has been a college football coach for 17 seasons and his teams have failed to reach the postseason only once.

Georgia Southern Eagles – Over 4.5 (+110)

First things first.  This team has some of the best uniforms in the game so it’s easy to get behind this pick. Like Alabama, just swap out crimson for navy.  This is Georgia Southern’s first season in the FBS and I’m not saying they make the NCAA playoff but they should compete every week.  After all this is the Georgia Southern team that took down Florida 26-20 in the Swamp last year.

Ohio Bobcats – Under 6.5 (-160)

Few teams lost as many players as Ohio following the 2013 season and there are underclassmen taking over at every key position.

A Taste For Week 1

The official kick-off to the Stream's 2014 pillage-the-sportsbooks tour will begin on Monday. But people don't like waiting for winners and if we are being honest I don't blame you guys.  After all, we know what happens to the lines when I make my picks public.

So am I going to wait until Monday to disclose all my picks?  Of course not.  Here is a taste of what we will be betting come Week 1.

I've already whaled on these 7.  The top two are my favorites, followed by the next three.  And I would like a half-point shift in the bottom two but don't see the lines moving that way.


Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St
Kent St (-3) - Ohio U.

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi
North Texas (+24) - Texas
Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

Connecticut (+16.5) - Brigham Young
Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

Check back on Monday for the rest.

UPDATE: First post coming soon

Had a few issues at Mainstream HQ today.  First post will arrive tomorrow.

PS - I'm sorry Keith

First Picks Coming Next Week

College football is back.  Buckle up.

The Corner