Week 6 Recap

When I'm at the bar, see my picks went 2-0 in the early games, witness Georgia Tech beating Miami 17-7, and need to celebrate:

When every remaining pick turns into a dud and my friends think it's hilarious:

+ Week 6 Winners -- 

SMU (+7) - Rutgers 

Temple (+34) - Louisville 

+ Week 6 Losers -- 

Syracuse (+13) - Clemson
Colorado (+38) - Oregon 

Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Miami FL
Louisiana-Monroe (+7.5) - Western Kentucky

Last Week: 2-4
Season: 51-37-2 (58.0%)

Favorite Bet On The Board Today

The team total for Georgia State, a 55.5 point underdog against Alabama, is 2.5.

Need it.  Can I get one field goal in Tuscaloosa today.

What are the odds of this winning?  Infinity

Is The Mainstream The Only Website In The World That Picks Winners?

Three things happened at lunch today...

1. Since it's Friday I went with the double order.  Burrito from Chipotle and a big Wreck from Potbelly.  No big deal.

2. Found out traffic on the Mainstream has increased in a big way.  In September, 3,000 pageviews.  Kinda big deal.
3. I had an idea about adding certain statistics to improve my algorithm.  While hunting for data, I came across some website called Team Rankings.  Never seen it before.  Have the Mainstreamers?  Well guess what, I quickly learned they are my competition.  New rival #1.

Team Rankings is a sports website with betting advice.  They charge $49 per month to subscribe to their picks.  Compared to the free picks that I provide on the Mainstream, how do we compare?

2013

Team Rankings:  50.7%

Mainstream:  59.8%

2012

Team Rankings:  50.9%

Mainstream:  53.3% 

2011

Team Rankings:  49.5%

Mainstream:  63.4% 

Bloodbath City!

So naturally I have to assume I'm doing this all wrong.  How is Team Rankings raking in cash with these picks?  I need to hire a business team right?  Guys to handle the business side, marketing, the works.  Guys who wake up in the morning and redefine the meaning of "work ethic".

Prosperous times ahead for the Mainstream indeed.  

Thursday Picks

Everyone loves underdogs.  Everyone loves cash.  Let's bet two more.  Definition of win-win.


Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Miami FL
Louisiana-Monroe (+7.5) - Western Kentucky

All six picks are big-time contrarian plays.  The regular public bettors are betting on every team I'm betting against.  How confident am I this week?  Oh I don't know, how about realizing that the sharps agree with every one of my picks.  NBD.  Time to get paid.

 

PS - Don't like betting six underdogs?

Week 6 Notes

When a coworker stops by my desk and says he bet $1,000 on all four of my picks:

SMU (+7) – Line has dropped 2.5 points.  The power of Mainstream.  Trying to stop it is like trying to stop the tides.

Syracuse (+13) – Cuse has the better defense and is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8.  Ride the hot hand.

Temple (+34), Colorado (+38) – The public is saying things like “No way Louisville won’t win 70-0” and “I would never bet against Oregon.”  Perfect.  The public is hammering both favorites, inflating lines and creating value on the dogs.  Plus the backdoor cover is always in play.  Betting big on both.  If that makes me crazy then put me in a straitjacket.

Week 6

When I bet on Colorado the week after I predicted they would get blown out by Oregon State.  

The spreads are getting tighter.  Vegas is getting wiser.  Like the BYU line moved 4.5 points in the direction I predicted last week.  I asked myself whether I should still make my picks public and show them to Vegas.

Then again, I guess my picks are like the old Green Bay Packers power sweep. You know it’s coming and you still can’t stop it.


+ Week 6 Plays --

SMU (+7) - Rutgers
Syracuse (+13) - Clemson
Temple (+34) - Louisville
Colorado (+38) - Oregon


Last Week: 5-5
Season: 49-33-2 (59.8%)


4 home underdogs.  One time!

Week 5 Recap

Watching TCU score 41 points in the second half:

+ Week 5 Winners -- 

Oregon St (-10) - Colorado

Kent St (+3) - Western Michigan

BYU (-20.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Hawaii (+18.5) - Fresno St 

Alabama (-14) - Mississippi

+ Week 5 Losers -- 

Temple (-7) - Idaho

Rice (-12) - Florida Atlantic
SMU (+19.5) - TCU

Notre Dame (+3.5) - Oklahoma

Connecticut (+1) - Buffalo 

Last Week: 5-5
Season: 49-33-2 (59.8%)

Heat, so much heat to start the day.  Cooled off hard.  Feeling like Week 6 is when it all comes together.  Can't cage a songbird.

Thursday Picks

What I look like trying to simultaneously eat lunch and make my picks on Thursdays:

Rounding out the Top 10...

Hawaii (+18.5) - Fresno St
Connecticut (+1) - Buffalo
Alabama (-14) - Mississippi

Hawaii (+18.5) - Fresno State's 118th-ranked defense versus Hawaii's 119th-ranked offense.  A pillow fight if I've ever seen one.

Connecticut (+1) - Neither team looked good last week.  UConn never stood a chance against Michigan and Buffalo needed 5 OT's to beat Stony Brook (FCS).

Alabama (-14) - When the Tide's third-stringers are playing the 4th quarter and Ole Miss threatens to backdoor cover, Saban won't allow it.  Too much intensity.  Too much fire.

PS - Hey Vegas, can I get the Texas A&M line one time?  You're making me sweat over here.

Week 5 Notes

Thinking about writing about my top plays every week.  Instead of just giving you my sharp picks, tell you why I see value.  Would people enjoy this?

//

Ten fewer games this week in college football and for the first time this season, no FBS vs FCS matchups.

Oregon St (-10) - Lock City. This is a Colorado team that went 1-11 last year.

Temple (-7) - When Idaho’s coach brings his team onto the field it’s like leading a lamb to slaughter.

Kent St (+3) - Western Michigan has scored 33 points in 3 losses at Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa. No bueno.

SMU (+19.5) - Last three meetings have been decided by less than this year's spread and SMU even won two years ago.

Notre Dame (+3.5) - Notre Dame has question marks on defense but still a team that is 15-2 in their last 17 games with losses only to Alabama and Michigan.

Week 5

Absolutely need the occasional 4-6 Saturday.  Keeps you on your toes.  Keeps you sharp.  When I see that I'm still over 60%:

+ Week 5 Plays --

Oregon St (-10) - Colorado
Temple (-7) - Idaho
Kent St (+3) - Western Michigan
Rice (-12) - Florida Atlantic
SMU (+19.5) - TCU
BYU (-20.5) - Middle Tennessee St
Notre Dame (+3.5) - Oklahoma

Last Week: 4-6
Season: 44-28-2 (61.1%)

Week 4 Recap

+ Week 4 Winners -- 

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Syracuse (-13.5) - Tulane

Georgia Tech (-5) - North Carolina

Utah St (+6.5) - Southern Cal

Ball St (-10.5) - Eastern Michigan

+ Week 4 Losers -- 

Army (+3.5) - Wake Forest

Florida Int'l (+42) - Louisville

Indiana (+4.5) - Missouri

Florida Atlantic (+5) - Middle Tennessee St

Hawaii (+12) - Nevada

Air Force (+5) - Wyoming

Last Week: 4-6
Season: 44-28-2 (61.1%)

ICE COLD!

Heinous!

When I see Florida Atlantic head into overtime and I have them +5:

When I see Florida Atlantic lose by 7:

Thursday Picks

Expectations for Week 4:

Rounding out the Top 10...

Ball St (-10.5) - Eastern Michigan
Air Force (+5) - Wyoming

I'm not going to predict a 10-0 record this week but will be shocked if I'm not at least 9-1.  Even Bath Ruth struck out sometimes.

PS - I don't know what Vegas is up to right now.  ND down to -4.5 after opening at -7?  Mind games like you read about.  They better be careful or I will be laying a month's rent on the Irish if it keeps dropping.

Week 4

You just know Cooper Manning tries to join these games every time and gets denied.


+ Week 4 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"
Syracuse (-13.5) - Tulane
Army (+3.5) - Wake Forest
Georgia Tech (-5) - North Carolina
Utah St (+6.5) - Southern Cal
Florida Int'l (+42) - Louisville
Indiana (+4.5) - Missouri
Florida Atlantic (+5) - Middle Tennessee St
Hawaii (+12) - Nevada


Last Week: 10-6
Season: 40-22-2 (64.5%)

Yeah there are only 8 picks.  17 out of the 58 games don't have lines yet.   How about Vegas right now.  Just tucking its tail between its legs.  Afraid to offer spreads knowing the Mainstream will pounce immediately on any weak offer.  Honestly can't blame them.

Week 3 Recap

Top 10 picks went 8-2 again.  That's 8-2, 8-2, and 6-3-1 in the first three weeks.  75.9%

+ Week 3 Winners -- 

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Stony Brook (+13) - Buffalo

Air Force (+23.5) - Boise St

Louisiana-Lafayette (-23.5) - Nicholls St

Rice (-5) - Kansas

Texas Tech (+3.5) - TCU

South Alabama (+11) - Western Kentucky

Georgia Tech (-8) - Duke

Georgia St (+38.5) - West Virginia

Army (+30.5) - Stanford 

+ Week 3 Losers -- 

Youngstown St (+27) - Michigan St

Minnesota (-23.5) - Western Illinois

Nevada (+32) - Florida St

Tulsa (+24.5) - Oklahoma

Connecticut (+7.5) - Maryland

Texas (-2.5) - Mississippi

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 40-22-2 (64.5%)

Honest question, if Minnesota's coach has a seizure on the sidelines during the game, shouldn't Vegas refund the bet?  The Gophers were just rattled at that point.  Can't play like that.  Feel like I should be able to say the Top 10 went 8-1 this week.

Everyone Is On Alabama Today... Oh Wait I'm Not

Everyone I've talked to likes Alabama today.  Well fellow Mnstreamer Kevin and I are going with Texas A&M +8.5.  It's Johnny Football.  Wake up!

Thursday Picks - If You're Not Riding The Stream Right Now You're A Sucker Of Epic Proportions

When I bet Texas after they gave up 1,000 rushing yards to BYU last week...

Texas (-2.5) - Mississippi
Army (+30.5) - Stanford


Most of the lines moving in my favor again this week. Surprised? Haha, no.
Two lines moved away from me, Florida State (3.5 pts) and West Virginia (1.5 pts). Not thrilled but it's gotta be from the dumb public bettors laying heavy favorites.

h/t Deeves on the gif

Gallon's First Touchdown

Chesson went Diesel

Is The Algorithm Working?

Early in the year, I'll know if my picks are strong based on closing lines.  And I'll bet any game if I see value.  It's called being a sharp.  Cross I bear.

PS - Samford (+32.5) against Arkansas.  Richmond (+23) against NC State.  In the fourth quarters, Samford was winning 21-17 and Richmond was up 21-20.  Betting underdogs 101.

Week 3

Friends were chirping at me last Saturday.  Asking, wanting, demanding my lock of the week.  No-brainer city.  South Florida +24.5 at Michigan State.  Listen I know the Bulls are bad but they could have been shut out and covered.

Sparty's offense:

+ Week 3 Plays --

"Most Confident 10"

Kent St (+37.5) - LSU

Stony Brook (+13) - Buffalo

Youngstown St (+27) - Michigan St

Air Force (+23.5) - Boise St

Minnesota (-23.5) - Western Illinois

Louisiana-Lafayette (-23.5) - Nicholls St

Rice (-5) - Kansas

Texas Tech (+3.5) - TCU

South Alabama (+11) - Western Kentucky

Georgia Tech (-8) - Duke

"Rest of the Picks"

Nevada (+32) - Florida St

Tulsa (+24.5) - Oklahoma

Georgia St (+38.5) - West Virginia

Connecticut (+7.5) - Maryland

Last Week: 17-7-1
Season: 30-16-2 (65.2%)

h/t Deeves on the gif