Working on January 2nd

4-2 yesterday.
Florida is up to -14.5 tonight.  Don't mind seeing that.

Bowl Results

+ Bowl Winners –

BYU (-2.5) - San Diego State
Michigan (+5.5) - South Carolina

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Last Week: 2-0

Season: 104-91-5 (53.3%)

Super Bowl XLVII

Sticking with my preseason prediction for the Super Bowl:

Book it.

Outback

When I find out that Tirico and Gruden will announce the Outback Bowl:

Bowl Game Leans

When my friend Hugh and I watch college football on New Years Day and decide that it's time to order Pequod's Pizza.

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A buddy asked me to rank all of the games starting on January 1st, except for the the GoDaddy.com Bowl.  11 games.

Compared to the recommended plays during the regular season, each of the plays below has less value.  The algorithm is pricing the lines very similar to Vegas.  These show which way the model is leaning.

In order of confidence:

+ Bowl Leans --
Michigan (+6) - South Carolina
Wisconsin (+6.5) - Stanford
Nebraska (+10) - Georgia
Oklahoma St (-16.5) - Purdue
Oklahoma (+4.5) - Texas A&M
Notre Dame (+10) - Alabama
Northwestern (+1.5) - Mississippi St
Kansas St (+9) - Oregon
Florida (-13.5) - Louisville
Northern Illinois (+13) – Florida St
Mississippi (-3) - Pittsburgh

When I Go Skiing Over The Holidays

What I think I look like:

What I really look like:

Bowl Bets

When I start making bets solely off feel:

There are two games that the model is right at the threshold:
BYU (-2.5) - San Diego State
Michigan (+5.5) - South Carolina

Best License Plate In The Game

So much swag I can't stand it.

Somebody Cue The Trumpets

Today I've been flying, driving, taking the train, going from meeting to meeting... Had a moment where I decided I would just run the algorithm tomorrow.  But honestly that would mean too many readers without picks for me to sleep at night.

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In order of confidence, highest to lowest.  No point spreads.

35. Oklahoma St vs. Purdue
34. Arizona St vs. Navy
33. Florida vs. Louisville
32. Florida St vs. Northern Illinois
31. Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
30. Utah St vs. Toledo
29. Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina St
28. Cincinnati vs. Duke
27. Fresno St vs. SMU
26. Southern Cal vs. Georgia Tech
25. Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio U.
24. Brigham Young vs. San Diego St
23. Alabama vs. Notre Dame
22. Arizona vs. Nevada
21. Central Florida vs. Ball St
20. San Jose St vs. Bowling Green
19. Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
18. Georgia vs. Nebraska
17. Oregon vs. Kansas St
16. Arkansas St vs. Kent St
15. West Virginia vs. Syracuse
14. Louisiana-Lafayette vs. East Carolina
13. LSU vs. Clemson
12. Mississippi vs. Pittsburgh
11. Air Force vs. Rice
10. Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
9. Stanford vs. Wisconsin
8. Boise St vs. Washington
7. Iowa St vs. Tulsa
6. Oregon St vs. Texas
5. Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
4. Northwestern vs. Mississippi St
3. TCU vs. Michigan St
2. Michigan vs. South Carolina
1. UCLA vs. Baylor

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When my friends visit the Stream and see the model's plays:

Bowl Picks

When one of my friends suggested that I post bowl picks, I thought:

They will arrive tomorrow night.

Nothing says Christmas spirit like calling your neighbor a Twat in Christmas Lights

To answer the question on everyone's mind, yes this is in Ohio.

B1G

When my friends and I see that the Big Ten is an underdog in every bowl game the and over/under for Big Ten wins is 2.

Model: Season in Review
If someone bet my top five plays every week, he would have finished 38-30 (56%).

Bowl Season

When I check the lines on Tuesday and see that we've missed the openers:

Using the current lines (12/4), the algorithm doesn't recommend any bowl games.  Zero.  There are five games near the threshold and I will continue to monitor them.  For now I find all of the prices (lines) to be relatively accurate.

Now that we have an entire season's worth of data, this is not surprising. I may lower the threshold. TBD

Week 14 Recap

We did it!  In a tough year for college football betting, from Vegas to the offshores, we made money.  Not much; but we bet 198 games and came out +$. (52.4% is the breakeven)

When I told a girl at dinner about the algorithm's record this year:

+ Week 14 Winners –

Northern Illinois (-5) - Kent St

Arkansas St (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

+ Week 14 Losers -- 

South Florida (+6) - Pittsburgh

Texas (+12) - Kansas St

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Last Week: 2-2

Season: 102-91-5 (52.8%)

Live Chat: SEC Championship

Humor aficionado @mikehoner and I will host a Live Chat for tomorrow's SEC Championship. 4pm ET. Do it.

Big Moves This Week

How does the algorithm find value before the lines move every week?

Northern Illinois: -5 to -7.5

Arkansas State: -9.5 to -10.5

Texas: +12 to +10.5

No new recommended plays.

When The College Football Season Is Over And I Watch The NBA

Underdogs FTW

There are 15 games on Saturday and the money has already flowed into 14 favorites.

The only underdog receiving over 50% of the action is Georgia (+8) vs Alabama.  I might just go play every underdog, not ask questions, and then collect my winnings.

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A friend sent me this... I don’t care how old you are. I don’t care what level of football we’re talking about. I don’t even care what sport we’re talking about. You simply can’t get trucked worse than that in any level of life. Just absolute destroyed. Like that’s the type of play that sends you from playing free safety to the chess club in the blink of an eye.

Week 14

When it's Saturday and I've only bet on four games:

// Both Northern Illinois (9-2-1) and Kent St (10-2) are ATS machines. #MACtion

// Texas is starting Case McCoy at QB.  The spread has been building since the open yesterday. 

+ Week 14 Plays -- 

South Florida (+7) - Pittsburgh

Northern Illinois (-5) - Kent St

Arkansas St (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Texas (+12) - Kansas St

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Last Week: 5-5-3

Season: 100-89-5 (52.9%)

Week 13 Recap

Rivalry Week: College football at its finest.

// 5-2 in the Top 7 picks.  Should have been 6-1.  Why Lane Kiffin didn’t kick the field goal when he was down two scores makes no sense. 

// Southern Miss is one of the few teams that the model consistently recommends.  Thankfully their season is over.  0-12 (3-9 ATS). 

// The three pushes were all brutal. 

Up 5 in the 4^th, Troy threw a pick-6 and then gave up the two-point conversion. 

Florida Int’l lost by 6 in overtime.  No field goal?

Wisco’s kicker missed a chip shot in overtime.

+ Week 13 Winners – 

Colorado St (-2.5) - New Mexico

Maryland (+24.5) - North Carolina

Connecticut (+13) - Louisville

Idaho (+39.5) - Utah St

Arizona St (+3) - Arizona

+ Week 13 Losers -- 

Southern Miss (+5) - Memphis

Southern Cal (+6) - Notre Dame

Illinois (+19) - Northwestern

Iowa St (+1) - West Virginia

South Florida (+13.5) - Cincinnati

+ Pushes -- 

Troy (+3) - Middle Tennessee St

Florida Int'l (+6) - Louisiana-Monroe

Wisconsin (+3) - Penn State

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Last Week: 5-5-3

Season: 100-89-5 (52.9%)

Gut Plays: 2-1 last week.  10-8 on the year (55.6%).