Week 2 Recap

Sean Connery's thoughts on the first two weeks:

+ Week 2 Winners --

Connecticut (+6) - North Carolina St

Penn State (+10) - Virginia.  Tough day for the Penn St kicker, Ficken. 1-5 on field goals. Missed a 20 yarder.  Missed a 30 yard game-winner. Missed a PAT. Pretty much missed every way possible. And none of them were close either. All were instashanks. Just no chance from the second they left his foot. Even the one he hit was disgusting. A knuckleball that had no idea where it was going.

Fresno St (+35) - Oregon

Ball St (+27.5) - Clemson

Stanford (-14.5) - Duke

Louisiana-Monroe (+31.5) - Arkansas.  I think John L smacked himself.

Maryland (+11) - Temple.  Outright win by 11 for the Terps.

Cincinnati (-4) - Pittsburgh

+ Week 2 Losers --
Massachusetts (+14) - Indiana

Oklahoma St (-11) - Arizona

Last Week: 8-2-0
Season: 18-6-0 (75.0%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week --
Ugh

Forward Down The Field

Lions: 27.  Rams: 23.
Your Detroit Lions are 1/16th of the way towards their perfect season.

Still, against the vaunted Rams secondary, what's the deal with the passing game?  Three picks.  Multiple drops.  Heck even this conversation ensued during the 3rd quarter.

Old Sko: Stafford's passing progressions are identical to the Kübler-Ross stages of grief.
Hone: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, Pettigrew, drop.

Thursday Night Football

Caption Contest

Sunseri's had the most success when he works through progressions, feels the pressure, and then throws from Downward Facing Dog.

Opening Lines

// When opening lines move against me:

In the first 4 to 5 weeks, we'll see a lot of line movements.  Action.  This variance stems from uncertainty and unknown variables early in the season.  A sign of a true sharp player is if he can get ahead of the "steam".  Lines moving in my favor throughout the week (following my Monday bets) will reveal my talents just as much as the actual games.

In Week 1 lines moved both ways.  The final spread is listed in bold.

Massachusetts (+24.5) – UConn  (+21)

North Texas (+44) – LSU  (+42)

Texas-San Antonio (+6.5) - South Alabama  (+5)

Boston College (+3) – Miami  (+2)

Bowling Green (+29) – Florida  (+28.5)

Hawaii (+40) – USC  (+43.5)

Baylor (-10) – SMU  (-7)

Boise St (+7) - Michigan St  (+8.5)

Wyoming (+30) – Texas  (+31)

Notre Dame (-15) – Navy  (-14.5)

Stanford (-26) - San Jose St  (-26)

Southern Miss (+20.5) – Nebraska  (+20.5)

Buffalo (+38) – Georgia  (+38)

Duke (-3) - Florida Int’l  (-3)

// When lines move in my favor and I'm convinced it's because of my bets (which carry the heat of 1,000 white hot suns in Vegas):

Saturday Night in Review

When C.J. Mosley scored on a pick-6 to go up 31-0...

Brady Hoke's reaction:

My reaction:

Week 2

At this point, anything less than a 70% week will feel like:

+ Week 2 Plays --
Connecticut (+6) - North Carolina St

Penn State (+10) - Virginia

Fresno St (+35) - Oregon

Ball St (+27.5) - Clemson

Massachusetts (+14) - Indiana

Stanford (-14.5) - Duke

Louisiana-Monroe (+31.5) - Arkansas

Maryland (+11) - Temple

Cincinnati (-4) - Pittsburgh

Oklahoma St (-11) - Arizona

Cinci opened at (-2.5). Sharps hit it and it's now at (-4). Get it early and often.

Last Week: 10-4-0 (71.4%)
Season: 10-4-0

+ Gut Plays --

Mizzou (+3) - Georgia. Welcome to the SEC.

// Note: Remain careful with Stanford. I believe the Cardinal are mispriced. Working on a solution.

Week 1 Recap - Did he?

First week in the books.  Being out of town late last week, I left some value on the table when the remaining lines were released.  Not happy with it.

+ Week 1 Winners --

Bowling Green (+29) – Florida

North Texas (+44) – LSU

Notre Dame (-15) - Navy

Baylor (-10) - SMU

Hawaii (+40) - USC

Wyoming (+30) - Texas

Boise St (+7) - Michigan St

Texas-San Antonio (+6.5) - South Alabama

Buffalo (+38) - Georgia

Duke (-3) - Florida Int’l

+ Week 1 Losers --
Stanford (-26) - San Jose St.  Need a new way to account for the loss of Luck.

Southern Miss (+20.5) - Nebraska

Boston College (+3) - Miami

Massachusetts (+24.5) - UConn

Last Week: 10-4-0 (71.4%)
Season: 10-4-0

+ Gut Plays of the Week --
1-1 split. Alabama rolled in Dallas while Vandy covered nicely on the Thursday night kickoff.

Michigan - Alabama

To win the game even keep it competitive, I thought Michigan had to do two things.
1. Stop the run
2. Win the turnover battle

Zero for two.  Alabama's o-line controlled the line of scrimmage all game en route to 247 rushing yards, while Michigan rushed for 69 yards.
Alabama also won the turnover battle 3-1, including a pick-6 in the second quarter.

Since this was the opener, the first test felt more like a final exam on the first day of the semester.

Ugh!

Alabama 41
Michigan 14

Get me back to the party bus.  Booze city.

Week 1 - College. Football. [faints]

Get Wet

As of Monday night, only about 60% of the Week 1 lines have been released.  I'll post updates as the week progresses.

+ Week 1 Plays --
Stanford (-26) - San Jose St

Bowling Green (+29) - Florida

North Texas (+44) - LSU

Notre Dame (-15) - Navy

Baylor (-10) - SMU

Hawaii (+40) - USC

Wyoming (+30) - Texas

Southern Miss (+20.5) - Nebraska

Boston College (+3) - Miami

Boise St (+7) - Michigan St

Texas-San Antonio (+6.5) - South Alabama

Massachusetts (+24.5) - UConn

Buffalo (+38) - Georgia

Duke (-3) - Florida Int’l

Last Week: N/A
Season: 0-0-0

+ Gut Plays --

Michigan (+14) - Bama.  Big line move on Tuesday.  I don't bet for or against Michigan; still I'd be remiss to not mention this incredible value.
Vandy (+6.5) - South Carolina.  Over 80% of the money is hitting SCar, yet no bumps to 7.  Want 7.  Need 7.  Thinking 7 comes before Saturday Thursday.
PS. These are two of the most contrarian plays in Week 1. Fading the public FTW!

Double PS  Auburn is currently (+3.5) vs. Clemson.  If the number bumps to (+4), the model will hit it.

The Model

After a pure 2011 season and countless +EV plays, I'm back for another year.

It might be impossible to repeat last year's hit rate. Wiseguys in Vegas who make a living off of college-football-betting dream of hitting 57% in a season. Then again, I ran more regressions in the summer and the model has been improved.

Last Season: 83-48-4 (63.4%)

// All lines will be posted as of that week's Monday; taken from 5Dimes (or SBR - Live Odds).
// Each play, unless stated differently, will be worth 1 unit. On this blog, 1 unit is worth 3% of the total bankroll.  For example, if my bankroll was $1,000, each bet would be $30. Units are incremental, not a static entity.
// Enjoy

"Cruising" to 900

With five wins in 2012, Michigan will become the first college football team to reach 900 all-time victories.

1. Michigan, 895-310-36

2. Yale, 869-347-55

3. Texas, 858-330-33

4. Notre Dame, 853-300-42

5. Nebraska, 846-349-40

6. Ohio State, 825-315-53

7. Oklahoma, 821-307-53

8. Harvard, 821-381-50

9. Penn, 818-463-42

10. Alabama, 814-320-43

PS  Such a cat move to ride solo.  Dog just wants to share and play.

Another Title for Hugh Noet

Congratulations to Hugh Noet!
Champions of Summer 2012
Men's Basketball at Windy City Fieldhouse!

The final night of playoffs started with a semi-final game between Hugh Noet and the Bulls. Hugh Noet advanced to the championship game with a 76-53 win. In the other semi-final match, Kcura beat Make it Drizze in a close 63-57 game. Hugh Noet dominated in the championship game against kcura with a final score of 60-33.

Michigan - 2012 Season

How will the 133rd edition of Michigan football do this fall?   My prediction:

Sep 1    at Alabama -- L
Sep 8    Air Force -- W
Sep 15  Massachusetts -- W
Sep 22  at Notre Dame   -- L
Oct 6    at Purdue -- W
Oct 13  Illinois -- W
Oct 20  Michigan State -- W
Oct 27  at Nebraska -- L
Nov 3   at Minnesota -- W
Nov 10  Northwestern -- W
Nov 17  Iowa -- W
Nov 24  at Ohio State -- L

BCS Championship Odds

After some intense pillowy research...

I've made plays on two teams to win the BCS Championship.
Florida State 10/1
Florida 50/1

Two Weeks Away

College football is two weeks away. [cracks open beer]

Thus far (and it is obviously very early), 73% are betting Alabama -12.5 against Michigan on Sportsbook.

In my unbiased opinion, I've never seen as much value on a team as Michigan +12.5 vs. Alabama.  Wheelhouse city.
PS Mike Colbert at Cantor Sports also believes UofM +12.5 is the best bet in Week 1.

Michigan, according to Vegas...
+2500 to win the national championship
Denard Robinson is the 3rd favorite to win the Heisman trophy (Matt Barkley, Montee Ball)
The odds show 57% to make a BCS game

Dogs Saving The Day

Dogs just doing it big again.  Love the black dog Ralph here.  Just walking over to these two cats trying to defuse the situation.  Telling everybody to remain calm.  “Hey it’s a beautiful day cats. Enjoy the weather. As you know amity means friendship.”  Then he walks away telling everybody he’s got it under control and the second he turns his back they start brawling.  If it were me I’d let the two cats claw each other’s eyes out.  The world would be a better place without them.  But that’s where dogs are better than you or me.  They don’t care who it is.  They don’t care if it’s the scum of the earth.  Ralph just wants everybody to get along and be besties.  If everybody isn’t holding hands, wagging their tails and singing kumbaya you ain’t trying hard enough.

Pure Wedding #6

On Sunday, I had a 4 and a half hour drive back to Chicago.  When I finally made it back to my apartment, I  walked in the door and...

Gone Fishing

Boss look if I've ever seen one.

Brazil Volleyball - Looks and Skills

Hey blue shirt, get at me.  We will own the 2 on 2 tournament at North Ave beach this weekend.