The Model

After a pure 2011 season and countless +EV plays, I'm back for another year.

It might be impossible to repeat last year's hit rate. Wiseguys in Vegas who make a living off of college-football-betting dream of hitting 57% in a season. Then again, I ran more regressions in the summer and the model has been improved.

Last Season: 83-48-4 (63.4%)

// All lines will be posted as of that week's Monday; taken from 5Dimes (or SBR - Live Odds).
// Each play, unless stated differently, will be worth 1 unit. On this blog, 1 unit is worth 3% of the total bankroll.  For example, if my bankroll was $1,000, each bet would be $30. Units are incremental, not a static entity.
// Enjoy

"Cruising" to 900

With five wins in 2012, Michigan will become the first college football team to reach 900 all-time victories.

1. Michigan, 895-310-36

2. Yale, 869-347-55

3. Texas, 858-330-33

4. Notre Dame, 853-300-42

5. Nebraska, 846-349-40

6. Ohio State, 825-315-53

7. Oklahoma, 821-307-53

8. Harvard, 821-381-50

9. Penn, 818-463-42

10. Alabama, 814-320-43

PS  Such a cat move to ride solo.  Dog just wants to share and play.

Another Title for Hugh Noet

Congratulations to Hugh Noet!
Champions of Summer 2012
Men's Basketball at Windy City Fieldhouse!

The final night of playoffs started with a semi-final game between Hugh Noet and the Bulls. Hugh Noet advanced to the championship game with a 76-53 win. In the other semi-final match, Kcura beat Make it Drizze in a close 63-57 game. Hugh Noet dominated in the championship game against kcura with a final score of 60-33.

Michigan - 2012 Season

How will the 133rd edition of Michigan football do this fall?   My prediction:

Sep 1    at Alabama -- L
Sep 8    Air Force -- W
Sep 15  Massachusetts -- W
Sep 22  at Notre Dame   -- L
Oct 6    at Purdue -- W
Oct 13  Illinois -- W
Oct 20  Michigan State -- W
Oct 27  at Nebraska -- L
Nov 3   at Minnesota -- W
Nov 10  Northwestern -- W
Nov 17  Iowa -- W
Nov 24  at Ohio State -- L

BCS Championship Odds

After some intense pillowy research...

I've made plays on two teams to win the BCS Championship.
Florida State 10/1
Florida 50/1

Two Weeks Away

College football is two weeks away. [cracks open beer]

Thus far (and it is obviously very early), 73% are betting Alabama -12.5 against Michigan on Sportsbook.

In my unbiased opinion, I've never seen as much value on a team as Michigan +12.5 vs. Alabama.  Wheelhouse city.
PS Mike Colbert at Cantor Sports also believes UofM +12.5 is the best bet in Week 1.

Michigan, according to Vegas...
+2500 to win the national championship
Denard Robinson is the 3rd favorite to win the Heisman trophy (Matt Barkley, Montee Ball)
The odds show 57% to make a BCS game

Dogs Saving The Day

Dogs just doing it big again.  Love the black dog Ralph here.  Just walking over to these two cats trying to defuse the situation.  Telling everybody to remain calm.  “Hey it’s a beautiful day cats. Enjoy the weather. As you know amity means friendship.”  Then he walks away telling everybody he’s got it under control and the second he turns his back they start brawling.  If it were me I’d let the two cats claw each other’s eyes out.  The world would be a better place without them.  But that’s where dogs are better than you or me.  They don’t care who it is.  They don’t care if it’s the scum of the earth.  Ralph just wants everybody to get along and be besties.  If everybody isn’t holding hands, wagging their tails and singing kumbaya you ain’t trying hard enough.

Pure Wedding #6

On Sunday, I had a 4 and a half hour drive back to Chicago.  When I finally made it back to my apartment, I  walked in the door and...

Gone Fishing

Boss look if I've ever seen one.

Brazil Volleyball - Looks and Skills

Hey blue shirt, get at me.  We will own the 2 on 2 tournament at North Ave beach this weekend.

Pure Weddings Part 2

On the drive to Michigan's top deck (up north), my car broke down in an area that looked like:

Oops

Pure Weddings

I recently attended my 5th Pure Michigan wedding in 2012.

When I arrived at the cocktail party on Friday night, I scanned the crowd:

When a girl I used to talk to spotted me:

Michigan's Uni for the Opener

Michigan's uniforms for the opener in Dallas.

Initial reaction:
// The shoulders and pants look maize, not highlighter yellow like the last few years.
// No outline around the name and numbers.  Clean.  Love it.
// The shoulders..... Meh.


UPDATE
// I just learned that the nameplate will read "MICHIGAN", not the player's last name, on every jersey.

How I Feel After a Weekend in Pure Michigan

Pure Michigan at the British Open

Grosse Ile doing it big again.

Dear Diary... Jackpot

I think I've found the one.  99% sure.

Pandas FTW

Well I just learned something that I didn’t know 5 minutes ago.  If I don’t get to slide down a slide with baby pandas before my life is over then my life is officially a disappointment.

PS Hey chinawoman make yourself useful and fix the swing.

Can't Do It... Won't Do It

I'm running a marathon in a few months.  Might train for it.  Might not.  Anyway there's a 0.00001% chance that I'll put a '26.2' sticker on my car.  But if this happens and we are friends please punch me in the face.

Chicago Weather

The 2012 HR Derby: Running Diary

Running Diary.  Let's get it on.


7:59 // Setting the Chris Berman Over/Under "Back" counter, conservatively, at 79.

8:05 // Chris Berman: "Our lineup tonight brought to you by Taco Bell, not George 'Taco' Bell, but Taco Bell."  Mother of God...

8:16 // Berman: "Beltran is certainly in contention!".....through one batter.

8:19 // Beltran has the purest of swings.  Watching his swing -- I imagine this is the feeling women get watching an anorexic model walk down a runway.

8:21 // Tulowitzki would dominate this thing.  Why can't my man stay healthy.

8:23 // Hispanic guys watching a home run derby is the new black guys watching a dunk contest.

8:28 // Berman: "This one is on its way to Wichita!"   Wichita was the 3rd favorite on my board behind Branson and Topeka for Berman's local geography ref.

8:34 // The winner of the HR derby should win a first class ticket on the next flight out of Kansas City.

8:39 // Bobby Abreu holds the record for the most homers in a single Derby. 41 in 2005 at Comerica Park. I witnessed.

8:42 // I don't know why but Chris Berman is a perfect fit for the HR Derby. I’m expecting Boomer to have a brain aneurysm any minute now.

8:45 // My friends are hating on Berman.  People, it's the Home Run Derby.  Being obnoxious is necessary for a meaningless competition like this.  I'm comparing this to people who dislike Nickelback.  It's taken on a life of it's own, as if it's cool to hate Nick for the hell of it.

8:49 // I can't wait until the Home Run Derby finals and George Brett is sitting on a raft in the fountains eating ribs.

8:52 // Prop Bet Update: If you had John Kruk to eat more than 8.5 ribs on air during the home run derby, you win. Congrats.

8:53 // Kruk hasn't said 3 words since that buffet spread came out.

8:56 // Oh damn...John Kruk just ate a cameraman.

9:05 // Berman: "Man that one's hit to Omaha!" George Brett: "That's the wrong direction."

9:12 // Mannequins with gloves would have caught more fly balls than these kids.

9:14 // Check that. The kid in the blue cleats shaggin flies could play for me anyday.

9:15 // [passes out]

9:36 // [wakes up]

9:37 // A swing-off in the Home Run Derby is only matched by the drama of an overtime NFL preseason game.

9:39 // Kruk: "Who ya got, Nomar?" Nomar Garciaparra: "Between these two?" (There are two people remaining in the competition.)

9:42 // If they forced the players to circle the bases with every home run, Prince would have died in Round 1.

9:45 // Berman channeling his inner Jim Nantz is the perfect end for the evening. "Prince is the king here in Kansas City."

9:52 // Pedro Gomez: "State Farm is donating much, much to the community". And you thought Miss Teen South Carolina was bad.

10:00 // Detroit FTW. Prince Fielder became only the second player to win multiple titles in the All-Star Home Run Derby.  This is his Alamo.