Week 11 - He's Back!

+ Week 11 Winners --
Pittsburgh (+3.5) Nice outright win as projected.
UL Monroe (-5.5) 28-point victory for Warhawk nation.
Michigan (pk) UofM Scoring Defense --- 2011 = 5th; 2010 = 107th.
-- Also one of two teams in the country to give up no plays over 50 yards. Gave up 8 last year.
Kansas (+21) Overtime loss by 1.
Kansas State (+4.5) Four-OT outright win.
Western Michigan (+12.5) 66-63 loss in Toledo.
Utah (-7) Easy 18-point cover over the Bruins.
South Carolina (-2.5) Low-scoring game in Columbia led to a 5-point victory.

+ Week 11 Losers --
Cincinnati (-3) A friend warned me about the Big East. He was right... 3-point loss for Cinci.

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-
Ugh! Welcome to Loser Central. Nebraska (-3.5) and Stanford (-3.5) both got clowned.

Definitely gave back some winnings from the model.

Last week: 8-1
Season: 72-41-4 (63.7%)

Week 11 - The Rebound

+ Week 11 Plays --

Pittsburgh (+3.5)
Cincinnati (-3)
UL Monroe (-5.5)
Michigan (pk)
Kansas (+21)
Kansas State (+4.5)
Western Michigan (+12.5)
Utah (-7)

Can’t find a line for South Carolina – Florida. If it opens at SC -3 or lower, I will play the Gamecocks.
Not laying Kansas yet. That line will grow. America loves Robert Griffin.

Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.

Last week: 2-4-1
Season: 64-40-4 (61.5%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-Thinking Stanford -3. Dreaming Stanford -3. Line is trading at -3.5.

Week 10 Recap - How To Take a Financial Bath

+ Week 10 Winners --
Stanford (-20.5)
Tennessee (-20)

+ Week 10 Losers --
Michigan (-4)
Temple (-3)
Notre Dame (-13.5)
Boise State (-41)

Push: Missouri (+3)

Last week: 2-4-1
Season: 64-40-4 (61.5%)

LSU vs. Alabama

LSU +5

Did Old Sko do it again or did Old Sko do it again? Just giving away free money. In other news I lost every other game on the board yesterday and every Breeder’s Cup race.

Les Miles Entrance Onto The Field Last Night

#1 vs #2

If I was setting the line for this game, I’d place it right at 3 points in favor of the home team. In Tuscaloosa, Bama -3. In Baton Rouge, Tigers -3. Anything larger and I’d see value on the ‘dog.

At quarterback, both signal-callers have similar talent and throw a decent ball. But there is an old saying: “In times of crisis, experience counts.” Jarrett Lee has played in a lot of close games in his career. I don’t think we’ve ever seen AJ McCarron tested against a defense like the one he’ll face on Saturday night.

At wide receiver, LSU has the decisive advantage. The trio of Randle, Shepard, and Beckham will keep Bama’s DBs out of the box. Especially Randle, as he is the one playmaker in this game that can stretch the field. With Maze and Hanks, Bama doesn’t have the playmakers to keep LSU’s defense honest. Mathieu and Claiborne can play man and the Tigers can load up the box with nine guys to stop Trent Richardson.

This leads to the running backs. Richardson is a horse but there won’t be many lanes for him to run in this game. Bodog lists the over/under on Trent Richardson rushing yards against LSU at 99.5. I’d lay the under. And don’t sleep on Spencer Ware who is a bruising back for the Tigers. I could see him having the better night among the RBs.

With the other position groups, there is talent across the board. The offensive lines for both teams are similar, both with a strength in run blocking. LSU has the better D-line, especially with their depth. The advantage at LB goes to Bama with Hightower and Upshaw. I think those two linebackers might decide the game as they’ll need to stop the run without safety support. On to the DBs, these guys will be bathing in money in a few years. Kirkpatrick/Barron for Bama. Mathieu/Claiborne for LSU.

This is going to be a great game.

The one advantage on special teams might go to LSU as their punter, Brad Wing, drops dimes in the redzone like Hugh DeVor lofts his 60-degree. He also knows how to celebrate.

Finally, the crowd will be intense after hours and hours of tailgating and debauchery, but the late-start might play into LSU’s hand. Some think that the Tigers are only a force when the lights are on in Death Valley. Think again…

(taken from covers.com)
30-1 Night Games Away From Home

09/24/11 at No.16 West Virginia (7:00 pm) Won 47-21
09/15/11 at No.25 Miss State (7:00 pm) Won 19-6
09/03/11 No.3 Oregon - Cowboys Classic (7:00 pm) Won 40-27
01/07/11 No.18 Texas A&M - Cotton Bowl (7:29 pm) Won 41-24
10/09/10 at No.14 Florida (6:30 pm) Won 33-29
09/11/10 at Vanderbilt (6:00 pm) Won 27-3
09/04/10 No.18 North Carolina - Chick-fil-A Classic (7:00 pm) Won 30-24
09/05/09 at Washington (9:30 pm) Won 31-23
12/31/08 No.14 Georgia Tech - Chick-fil-A Bowl (6:30 pm) Won 38-3
10/18/08 at South Carolina (7:00 pm) Won 24-17
10/11/08 AT NO.11 FLORIDA (7:00 pm) LOST 21-51
09/20/08 at No.10 Auburn (6:45 pm) Won 26-21
01/07/08 No.1 Ohio State - BCS Championship (7:00 pm) Won 38-24
08/30/07 at Miss State (7:00 pm) Won 45-0
01/03/07 No.11 Notre Dame - Sugar Bowl (7:00 pm) Won 41-14
12/30/05 No.9 Miami - Chick-fil-A Bowl (6:30 pm) Won 40-3
11/19/05 at Ole Miss (6:45 pm) Won 40-7
10/08/05 at Vanderbilt (6:00 pm) Won 34-6
09/10/05 at No.15 Arizona State (8:15 pm) Won 35-31
10/09/04 at No.12 Florida (6:45 pm) Won 24-21
01/04/04 No.1 Oklahoma - BCS Championship (7:00 pm) Won 21-14
12/06/03 No.5 Georgia - SEC Championship (7:00 pm) Won 34-13
11/15/03 at Alabama (6:45 pm) Won 27-3
10/18/03 at South Carolina (6:45 pm) Won 33-7
09/27/03 at Miss State (8:00 pm) Won 41-6
09/06/03 at Arizona (9:00 pm) Won 59-13
10/12/02 at No.16 Florida (6:45 pm) Won 36-7
01/01/02 No.7 Illinois - Sugar Bowl (7:30 pm) Won 47-34
12/08/01 No.2 Tennessee - SEC Championship (7:00 pm) Won 31-20
10/20/01 at Miss State (8:00 pm) Won 42-0
10/13/01 at Kentucky (6:00 pm) Won 29-25

LES MILES FTW

Week 10 - Geaux Tigers

+ Week 10 Plays --
Michigan (-4)
Stanford (-20.5)
Tennessee (-20)
Missouri (+3)
Notre Dame (-13.5)
Boise State (-41)
Temple (-3)

If you don’t see Mizzou or Temple at those spreads, wait for it, we’re heading that way.

Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.

Last week: 4-4
Season: 62-36-3 (63.3%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-
Ohio State (-27.5)
UTEP (pk)
...and LSU (+5)

Les Miles: "The contact that takes place when our defense is on the field is very sincere."


Um, what?

Week 9 - Recap

7 quality bets this week. Just happened to have three games run away in the 4^th quarter… The life of a sharp.

+ Week 9 Winners --
Utah (-5) UTAH!!!
Michigan (-13.5)
Marshall (-6) Nice 39-point cover.
Missouri (+11.5) What a pure outright win.

+ Week 9 Losers --
Rutgers (+7) Think I was on the right side. Rutgers was up 31-21 at half.
Nevada (-14.5) Real tough 0.5-point loss. But I didn’t see a 14 all week.
Arizona (+6.5) Can’t be upset with it. Zona had the lead in the 4^th quarter.
Kansas (+28.5)

Last week: 4-4
Season: 62-36-3 (63.3%)

Week 9 - Utah, Give Me Two!

+ Week 9 Plays --
Utah (-5)
Nevada (-14.5)
Kansas (+28.5)
Michigan (-13.5)
Rutgers (+7) (-105)
Arizona (+6.5)
Missouri (+11.5)
Marshall (-6)

This is it. I’m giving Utah one last shot to earn something… Salt Lake City: STAND UP!

Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.

Last week: 5-3-1
Season: 58-32-3 (64.4%)

+ Gut Play of the Week –-
TBD. FYI: I will pouncing on LSU over Bama next week.

Week 8 - Yeah We're Back

+ Week 8 Winners --
UTEP (-7)
Miami (-2.5)
My boy Zach Laskey gift-wrapped this cover for Miami.
Zach Laskey dropped back to receive a punt for Georgia Tech, the bouncing ball coming straight at him as he stood at the 9-yard line. He tried to grab it as a horde of Hurricanes sprinted toward him, misplayed it and could only watch as the football kept going into the end zone. Nicholas dove on it just past the goal line for a touchdown that put Miami up 14-0. Thanks Z.
Indiana (+23.5) More points from both offenses than I expected, but we’ll take it.
Boston College (+21.5)
Stanford (-20.5) First time this year that I placed 3x ($) on one game.

+ Week 8 Losers --
SMU (+3) Murdered in all three losses…
Utah (+3) Just killed...
Notre Dame (-8.5) Ugh

Rutgers (+2) was a wash.

Last week: 5-3-1
Season: 58-32-3 (64.4%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-7-game winning streak came to an end on Saturday night in East Lansing. Sparty on.

Saturday Night - Jump Around

+ Gut Play of the Week --
Wisco (-7.5)

Not playing it, but would be surprised if Iowa-Indiana didn't hit the Under (54.5).

Week 8 - Watch Out

+ Week 8 Plays --
Rutgers (+2)
UTEP (-7)
Miami (-2.5)
SMU (+3) (-105)
Utah (+3) (-105)
Indiana (+23.5)
Notre Dame (-8.5)
Boston College (+21.5)
Stanford (-20.5)

Arizona sat at (-3.5) yesterday and if it dropped to (-3), I would have played it. Instead it swung north and is now (-4.5).

Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.

Last week: 6-7-1
Season: 53-29-2

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-
TBD (7-game heater)

Week 7 - Wait..... We Lost???

After six weeks in the black, this was my first losing weekend, albeit my record was 6-7-1. And I actually never bet on Michigan (for or against) so my personal bets went 6-6-1, but I digress.

+ Week 7 Winners --
Miami (+3) Jacory Harris is playing well and not turning the ball over. Outright win.
Missouri (-14)
Virginia (+9) Strong contrarian play. Everyone loved Georgia Tech last week.
Boise State (-33.5) Boise will roll through their new conference.
Nevada (-30)
Fresno State (+4.5) Last game on the schedule was a winner. Just realized that I didn’t have one close win. All of these were easy covers.

+ Week 7 Losers --
Cal (+4.5) QB play was heinous, especially with Cal’s talent at WR.
Michigan (+2.5) State is the better team this year and was at home. Line should have been higher.
Indiana (+40) Russell Wilson has thrown four passes in the 4th quarter…for the entire year.
Cincinnati (-16.5) 9-point victory not enough.
Rutgers (-5) 1-point victory not enough.
Central Michigan (-12.5)
Idaho (pk)

Marshall (-4) was a wash.

Last Week: 6-7-1
Season: 53-29-2

+ Gut Plays of the Week --
N/A. Still riding a juicy 7-game winning streak.

Week 7 - Battle in East Lansing

+ Week 7 Plays --
Cal (+4) (-105)
Michigan (+2.5)
Missouri (-14)
Indiana (+40)
Cincinnati (-16.5)
Marshall (-4)
Virginia (+9)
Nevada (-30)
Boise State (-33.5)
Fresno State (+4.5)
Central Michigan (-12.5)
Rutgers (-5)
Miami (+3)
Idaho (pk)

Last Week: 7-3
Season: 47-22-1

//

+ Gut Plays of the Week --
N/A. Traveled to Boston this week and didn’t have time to research any specific games. If Hugh DeVor makes a play, I might will ride.

Over the last three weeks, we have a 7-0 record on gut plays.
Georgia – Tennessee
Purdue – Minnesota
Michigan – Minnesota
Auburn – South Carolina
Washington – Dallas (NFL)
Oklahoma State – Texas A&M
Cincinnati – NC State (Truck Plant Worker special)


In East Lansing, can anyone confirm if The Situation and Izzo will be on the sideline again?

Week 6 Recap

Before Week 7 (UM-MSU), let’s recap last Saturday…

+ Week 6 Winners --

Tulane (+11)
Michigan (-7)
Ohio State (+12)
North Texas (-3)
BC (+23) Caught a good line here.
Nevada (-21)
Houston (-10) Nice 43-point cover.

+ Week 6 Losers --
Utah (+6) My fault with the recent Utah plays. They are not performing like the model says they should because their starting QB is hurt. I will make adjustments.
UConn (+21) This was a 1-point game in the late-3Q. Ew.
Arizona (-3)

Last Week: 7-3
Season: 47-22-1

//

+ Gut Plays of the Week --

Georgia (-1.5) Love me some Uga.
Purdue (-10) Minny is heinous.

Over the last three weeks, we have a 7-0 record on gut plays.
Purdue – Minnesota
Georgia – Tennessee
Michigan – Minnesota
Auburn – South Carolina
Washington – Dallas (NFL)
Oklahoma State – Texas A&M
Cincinnati – NC State (Truck Plant Worker special)

//

Chris Rainey (Florida) on LSU & Alabama: "I felt we was better than them."

Florida lost by a combined score of 79-21.

"G"i Men

Friday October 7 and The Weekend

Going to Ryan Field in Evanston on Saturday. Michigan-Northwestern. Expecting 75% of the stadium to be maize and blue.

+ Week 6 Plays --
Tulane (+11)
Michigan (-7)
Ohio State (+12)
Utah (+6)
North Texas (-3)
BC (+23)
Nevada (-21)
Houston (-10)
UConn (+21)
Arizona (-3)

Last Week: 8-4
Season: 40-19-1

//

+ Gut Plays of the Week --
Georgia (-1.5)
Purdue (-10)

Over the last two weeks, we have a 5-0 record on gut plays.
Michigan – Minnesota
Auburn – South Carolina
Washington – Dallas (NFL)
Oklahoma State – Texas A&M
Cincinnati – NC State (Truck Plant Worker special)

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