Week 14: Championship Week

+ Lasko’s Week 14 Picks --

Northern Illinois (+11) - Bowling Green
Florida (+17) - Alabama


Last Week: 6-0
Season: 37-38-1 (49.3%)
Career: 363-293-15 (55.3%)

//

In the 19th MAC Championship, Northern Illinois has plenty of experience.  This will be the sixth straight year that they are in the title game.  The Huskies captured a 51-17 win over BG in this game last year.  As underdogs, Northern Illinois was 3-0 ATS, which included a 20-13 loss to Ohio State.

The SEC West has won the last six conference championships and while I don't see that changing this year, Florida's defense is good enough to keep the score inside two touchdowns.

Week 13 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Iowa (-2.5) - Nebraska
Oregon State (+35) - Oregon
UTEP (+3) - North Texas
Texas Tech (+1.5) - Texas
Arkansas (-15.5) - Missouri
Washington (-7.5) - Washington State

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

//

The largest underdog to win straight up:
Ohio (+12, ML +350) at Northern Illinois, 26-21

The largest favorite to cover:
South Florida (-24.5) at UCF, 44-3


In the Baylor-TCU game, the Horned Frogs punter somehow got did his job despite getting drilled by Shawn Oakman.

Who made the better catch?

Holiday Season

Tis the Holiday season and I have been giving out gifts the past 2 weeks, going 9-1!

Can I keep this hot streak up?  Me with my family trying to make my picks...

Connors' Week 11 Results

W-MSU/OSU under 52.5

W-Va Tech (+6.5) over North Carolina

W-Boston College/ND under 42.5

W-Indiana (+2.5) over Maryland

L-Georgia Tech (-2) over Miami

Connors' 2015 Record

Overall - 30-20 (60%)

Last Week - 4-1

Connors' Week 12 Picks

Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame

Indiana (-6.5) over Purdue

Illinois (+3.5) over Northwestern

Cincinnati (+1.5) over East Carolina

Oregon St. (+36) over Oregon

Notes:  Stanford is a better team and I believe ND is vastly overrated, been pulling out close wins all year.  Injuries finally catch up with ND and Stanford pulls away late//Indiana needs 1 more win to become bowl eligible and everyone is finally healthy//Illinois needs 1 more win as well to become bowl eligible and will pull out all the stops at home to get there//Cincy is a better team than their record would indicate and will go out with a bang//36 points, are you kidding me, in a rivalry game?  I will take the points all day thank you very much.

Have a wonderful rest of your Thanksgiving weekend! 

Refreshed

Fans, opponents, and other streamers, I am sorry.  I won't get into the excuses (ahem 5 trips in 8 days) for why I didn't find the time last week to pick, but I look at it as my bye week.  Like many good teams, this bye week just allowed me to clear the system and prepare for the weeks to come. This comes at an especially nice time considering it was my first sub-500 week in ages.  Now I am refreshed, re-energized, and ready to finish strong.  Lasko thinks I want to ice the clock now that I have a lead on him.  I won't be happy until I am sitting in first place with a click above 60%.  When I read comments about getting kicked off the site:

Now, heading into week 13 after a bye week:

Kevin's Week 11 Picks

L - Georgia Tech (-3.5) over Virginia Tech

W - Georgia (+1.5) over Auburn

W - Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Duke

L - Tennessee (-40.5) over North Texas

L - Utah (-6) over Arizona (LOW)

Kevin's 2015 Record

Overall - 29-26 (53%)

Two Weeks Ago – 2-3 (40%)

Lock of Week - 6-5 (55%)

Kevin's Week 13 Picks

Oregon State (+34.5) over Oregon

Clemson (-17) over South Carolina

Duke (-4) over Wake Forest

Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame

Penn State (+11) over Michigan State (LOW)

Week 13

+ Lasko’s Week 13 Picks --

Locking in:
Iowa (-2.5) - Nebraska

Waiting on:
Oregon State (+34.5) - Oregon
UTEP (+2.5) - North Texas
Texas Tech (+1.5) - Texas


Last Week: 5-3
Season: 31-38-1 (44.9%)
Career: 357-293-15 (54.9%)

//

Going to wait and see if I can get an extra half point on Oregon State and UTEP.

*Thursday morning Thanksgiving update*

Locked in Oregon State at +35 and UTEP +3
Arkansas (-15.5) - Missouri
Washington (-7.5) - Washington State

Week 12 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Air Force (+12.5) - Boise State
South Florida (+3) - Cincinnati
Navy (-12) - Tulsa
Baylor (+1) - Oklahoma State
San Jose State (-10) - Hawaii

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
Duke (+2.5) - Virginia
Kansas (+28) - West Virginia
USC (+4.5) - Oregon

//

The largest underdog to win straight up:
Michigan State (+14.5) at Ohio State, 17-14

The largest favorite to cover:
Alabama (-40.5) vs. Charleston Southern, 56-6


Big upset in Columbus as Michigan State beat Ohio State 17-14.  Hat tip to Sparty who led for 0 seconds against both UofM and OSU and won both games.

From Gameday:

PS - If anyone's up for a little trivia, test your knowledge with Who Said It: Jim Harbaugh or Ron Swanson?

Friday Update

+ Lasko’s Week 12 Picks --

Baylor (+1) - Oklahoma State
San Jose State (-10) - Hawaii

First off, I love both of these picks.  Don't like, love.  I'm whaling on both.

There is so much value on Baylor, it hurts.  Sure there are some questions after getting exposed by Oklahoma on national TV, but they are still a solid team and have been a covering machine. This year, Oklahoma State beat Texas by 3, Kansas State by 2, West Va by 7, and Iowa State by 4.  Be more overrated.  You can't.

The second pick isn't a play on San Jose State.  Far from it.  But as a touchdown underdog last week, Hawaii lost by 28.  Team is a mess.  Fade city.

PS - When it's Friday and Kevin still hasn't posted his picks...

You like that?

How I felt rooting for Oklahoma in that 4th quarter to go 5-0 for the week...

How I felt immediately after that game...

Connors' Week 10 Results

W-Florida (-7.5) over South Carolina

W-Indiana (+13) over Michigan

W-Iowa St (+14) Oklahoma St.

W-Oklahoma (+2.5) over Baylor

W-Middle Tennessee St (-5.5) over Florida Atlantic

Connors' 2015 Record

Overall - 26-19 (58%)

Last Week - 5-0

Connors' Week 11 Picks

MSU/OSU under 52.5

Va Tech (+6.5) over North Carolina

Boston College/ND under 42.5

Indiana (+2.5) over Maryland

Georgia Tech (-2) over Miami

Notes:  Supposed to be a cold, rainy and windy day in Columbus and MSU is going to try their best to avoid a track meet in this one.  The wind could really affect passing game and special teams//Frank Beamers last home game for Virginia Tech coupled with UNC playing a little tense now that that are in CFP talks//I can't see Boston College scoring more than 10 points in this one but having one of the best defenses will keep this low scoring//The Indiana is less of a play on how good Indiana is but how bad Maryland is. Maryland has thrown 2+ int in 9 straight games, can't give Indiana's offense those extra possessions//Last home game for Miami in the Orange Bowl means about 10,000 fans in attendance so no atmosphere plus I don't really see Miami players trying their hardest to prepare for the option.  

Week 12

+ Lasko’s Week 12 Picks --

Duke (+2.5) - Virginia
Kansas (+28) - West Virginia
Air Force (+12.5) - Boise State
South Florida (+3) - Cincinnati
USC (+4.5) - Oregon
Navy (-12) - Tulsa

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 26-35-1 (42.6%)
Career: 352-290-15 (54.8%)

//

Duke had their hangover, took their medicine, and will rebound this week.  The Wahoos can't run the ball and Duke has a solid rush defense, which will make Virginia one dimensional.

West Virginia can't stop the run and that is the only thing Kansas does decent.  A running clock should keep this number under 28.

Air Force will put up a fight on the blue turf.  I don't hate the Over here.

South Florida has been undervalued all year.  5-1 ATS in their last 6.

USC-Oregon is a coin flip.  Take the points.

Navy is on a roll.  This is a square bet which makes me hesitate to lay more than a unit but Keenan Reynolds could turn this into an easy cover.

Week 11 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 

Navy (-21.5) - SMU

Florida (-7.5) - South Carolina

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 

Utah (-5) - Arizona

Iowa (-11.5) - Minnesota

Washington (+3) - Arizona State

//

The largest underdog to win straight up:

New Mexico (+30.5) at Boise State, 31-24

The largest favorite to cover:

San Diego State (-23.5) vs. Wyoming, 38-3

The fact that I didn’t go 5-0, or 4-1 at worst, was diabolical.  Backdoor covers right in my face.  Let’s do a quick recap.

Iowa -11.5.  24-14 lead at the break.  Looking good in the 4th quarter until Minnesota executed a flawless halfback pass to get within five with just over five minutes to go. Iowa’s offense could not be stopped and Hawkeyes backers got the big run they needed as with just over two minutes to go as LeShun Daniels broke a 51-yard run for a touchdown.  The Gophers were relentless however and put together a touchdown drive in quick order, aided by a dropped interception and questionable roughing the passer call.  Listening to Matt Millen call the game made it worse.

Washington +3.  Washington led 17-0.  Next thing I know, it’s the second half and the Huskies offense turned the ball over four times, missed a field goal, and failed on a 4th down conversion.  Not to mention 27 unanswered points for Arizona State.

Moving on... Saturday night had some great matchups.

Oklahoma took down Baylor, capping Couch's 5-0 day.  

My favorite part of the game was when the cameras showed how a Baylor player is studying for his MBA and balances football with intense study sessions of his computer’s home screen.

PS – Current odds to win 2015 Big 10 Conference Championship:

Ohio State 4/9

Iowa 3/1

Michigan 7/1

Michigan State 10/1

Thursday Update

No picks today.  Hope the Streamers are tailing my picks right now.  Last week, this week, handing out winners like candy on halloween.

//

Line moves this week:
Michigan is a popular public team and the pros are also lining up on the Wolverines against Indiana.

Oklahoma was tagged early and the number has continued to drop. This one could get interesting as some sportsbooks anticipate the sharps making a late play on Baylor.  Unrelated but kind of related, if I could buy stock in football players the same way you can buy stock in companies, I'd invest my entire savings in Jarrett Stidham.  Kid has a bright future in front of him, and the country will get to see it on saturday night.

Maryland has been a cash cow for the pros for several weeks now, and sure enough, the Terps are getting some big dollars again this week.

Northwestern has gotten sharp money despite having to lay a big number to Purdue.  I'd whale on NW if the game was at 11:00am but I don't like the late start.  Personally I'm staying away from this one.

What happened?

Did I really just get passed?  One thing I will promise you, is that I will never bet on Pittsburgh again.  They might, no, they are the worst 1st half team in football. So now Kev has passed me and Lasko tweaked his algorithm to produce winners again, what am I to do? Time to get my swag back...

Connors' Week 9 Results

L-Pittsburgh (+8.5) over Norte Dame

L-Rutgers (+24.5) over Michigan

W-Florida St (+12.5) over Clemson

W-Oklahoma St. (+5.5) over TCU

L-Wisconsin (-12.5) over Maryland

Connors' 2015 Record

Overall - 21-19 (53%)

Last Week - 3-2

Connors' Week 10  Picks

Florida (-7.5) over South Carolina

Indiana (+13) over Michigan

Iowa St (+14) Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma (+2.5) over Baylor

Middle Tennessee St (-5.5) over Florida Atlantic

Notes: South Carolina is a dumpster fire and Florida needs to start putting on the style point in preparation for their title game showdown.  Indiana needs to win 2 of the next 3 to get bowl eligible so I think they pull out all of the stops.  Something fishy about this Iowa St line, Ok State should be much larger favorites, however on the road and maybe a let down game.  Oklahoma might be playing the best football after Alabama and Stanford the past few weeks.  (be scared taking Stoops in a big game though)  MTSU just beat a Marshall team the beat FAU, simple math here folks.

Momentum

Another week another winner.  I went 3-2 in week ten.  I was 5-0 if MSU and Wisconsin could play mediocre, not OK or even well, the last 5 minutes of their respective games.  My three winners were arguable my three best picks in a week.  Vandy nearly won at Florida as a 21 pt underdog.  The other two underdogs beat their respective top 25 foe, despite both playing away.  I knew Mississippi was and still is one of the most overrated teams in the country (probably the most overrated) and that they will ride their fluke win against Alabama for as long as they can.  Memphis is good but not top-25 good and they are riding their home victory against a mediocre Mississippi team.  Picking Navy, when a team like Memphis just can’t prepare for a triple option attack in one week, and Arkansas, who has the arguably most attractive head coach in college football, was easy. 

Now we’re off to week 11.  No low hanging fruit this week but there seem to be a few good options.  

Overall feeling going into week 11:

Kevin's Week 10 Picks

W - Vanderbilt (+21) over Florida
L - Michigan State (-5) over Nebraska

W - Navy (+8.5) over Memphis

W - Arkansas (+11) over Mississippi

L - Wisconsin (-12.5) over Maryland (LOW)

Kevin's 2015 Record

Overall - 27-23 (54%)

Last Week – 3-2 (60%)

Lock of Week - 6-4 (60%)

Kevin's Week 11 Picks

Georgia Tech (-3.5) over Virginia Tech

Georgia (+1.5) over Auburn

Pittsburgh (+3.5) over Duke

Tennessee (-40.5) over North Texas

Utah (-6) over Arizona (LOW)

Week 11

+ Lasko’s Week 11 Picks --

Navy (-21.5) - SMU
Utah (-5) - Arizona
Iowa (-11.5) - Minnesota
Washington (+3) - Arizona State
Florida (-7.5) - South Carolina

Last Week: 5-1-1
Season: 24-32-1 (42.9%)
Career: 350-287-15 (54.9%)

//

Don't let me get hot.  The last thing Kevin and Couch need right now is to watch me blow by them in the standings.  Will ruin any confidence they built up over the first ten weeks.

Week 10 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Iowa (-6.5) - Indiana
Vanderbilt (+21) - Florida
Nebraska (+5.5) - Michigan State
Iowa (-6) - Indiana
North Carolina (-7) - Duke

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
Kansas (+29) - Texas

+ Push -- 
Marshall (+3) - Middle Tennessee State

//

The largest underdogs to win straight up:

New Mexico (+20) vs. Utah State, 14-13

The largest favorites to cover:

Louisiana Tech (-29) vs. North Texas, 56-13

Big win for #1 Clemson over Florida State.  Pretty cool shot after the game.

The craziest play of the weekend happened as Arkansas beat Ole Miss in a wild shootout.  

Jabrill Peppers looked impressive again on offense, defense, and special teams as Michigan beat Rutgers by 33.

In the night games, Alabama kept LSU at arm's length in the second half, while bottling up heisman candidate Leonard Fournette. Michigan State lost by 1 to Nebraska after a questionable call by the refs allowed Nebraska to score on their final drive.  And in Columbus, Ohio State doubled up Minnesota 28-14, but failed to cover for the sixth time in the past eight games.  

The backup QB seemed to take the loss well.

Saturday Morning Special

+ Lasko’s Week 10 Picks --

Iowa (-6) - Indiana
Marshall (+3) - Middle Tennessee State
North Carolina (-7) - Duke

Line moves this week:
Nebraska didn't get sharp play all week, but it showed up this morning. The public was betting Michigan State from the open and the sharps were waiting for the higher number.  They waited.  This morning, they attacked.  The line is now down to Nebraska +4.

I might toss a little action on Northwestern +2 against Penn State.  11:00am games in Evanston give Northwestern one of the best home-field advantages in college football.  That atmosphere just sucks the life out of the opposing team.

PS - I don't love UNC -7 but I'll take my chances that Duke has a hangover game.

//

When my friends remind me that I'm the only one losing money on the Stream this year and that I should start picking winners:

Another Week, Another Winner

Feeling fortunate the past couple of weeks.  Not getting a good read on college football games but now were are getting to the meat of schedules and things are becoming a bit clearer.  Has anybody realized how smart the NCAA is?  They release their first rankings last night which are essentially meaningless but guess what everyone is talking about today.    I think this was the NCAA earlier today looking at ratings...

Connors' Week 9 Results

L-Pittsburgh (+3) over North Carolina

W-Temple (+10.5) over Notre Dame

W-Florida (-3) over Georgia

L-Stanford (-12) over Washington State

W-Central Michigan (-3) over Akron

Connors' 2015 Record

Overall - 19-16 (54%)

Last Week - 3-2

Connors' Week 10  Picks

Pittsburgh (+8.5) over Norte Dame

Rutgers (+24.5) over Michigan

Florida St (+12.5) over Clemson

Oklahoma St. (+5.5) over TCU

Wisconsin (-12.5) over Maryland

Thoughts: The last 6 times (2008-2013) the largest margin of victory in the Pitt/ND series was Pitt by 7.  Carroo is a beast for Rutgers and UM has been shredded for over 300 passing yards each of the past two games.  Carroo will allow Rutgers to score at least two touchdowns and keep it within the spread.  FSU/Clemson is a big time match up and we will finally see a close game for Clemson in the ACC.  I said it a few weeks ago, TCU is a different team away from home and as evident last week Ok. St can keep up with the points.  Wisconsin loves to blow out bad teams, it is what Wisconsin does.

Tenacity

After starting 2-8, I had a lot of doubters.  A lot of people fading my picks.  A lot of people telling me to get off the site.  Insults.  Death threats.  You name it.  Well look what has happened.  Since that dismal start, I have made money 6/7 of the last weeks and have finally crawled into the green and sit at 24-21 with my 4-1 week nine.  Since week two, I have been 22-13.  Even better the past few weeks.  I think my sweet spot is the SEC.  It’s pretty easy to spot one game or maybe even two games each week that are swayed by sports’ analyst perception and by Feinbaum and the rest of ESPN.  Remember, it is very important to talk to your kids about the SEC myth:

Here is my trajectory so far this year. Not happy until I get well above 60%.

Overall feeling going into week ten:

Kevin's Week Nine Picks

W - USC (-5.5) over Cal

W - Clemson (-10) over NC State

W - Miami (+11) over Duke

L - Boston College (+2.5) over VT

W - Navy (-7) over USF (LOW)

Kevin's 2015 Record

Overall - 24-21 (53%)

Last Week – 4-1 (80%)

Lock of Week - 6-3 (66%)

Kevin's Week Ten Picks

Vanderbilt (+21) over Florida
Michigan State (-5) over Nebraska

Navy (+8.5) over Memphis

Arkansas (+11) over Mississippi

Wisconsin (-12.5) over Maryland (LOW)

Week 10

+ Lasko’s Week 10 Picks --

Kansas (+29) - Texas
Iowa (-6.5) - Indiana
Vanderbilt (+21) - Florida
Nebraska (+5.5) - Michigan State

Last Week: 1-4
Season: 19-31 (38.0%)
Career: 345-286-14 (54.7%)

//

I don't want to start fading the algorithm but my bank account needs it like I need air to breathe.

Week 9 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Iowa State (+7) - Texas

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
Central Florida (+24.5) - Cincinnati
Vanderbilt (+13) - Houston
Colorado State (+4.5) - San Diego State
Wyoming (+28) - Utah State

//

The largest underdogs to win straight up:
Miami, Fla. (+10) at Duke, 30-27

The largest favorites to cover:
Oklahoma (-39) at Kansas, 62-7


Central Michigan posted a 14-6 win on the road against Akron, improving to 5-4 (8-1 ATS).  I had no idea why an extra $100 showed up in my account this morning.  Then I remembered that we bet Central Michigan - Over 4 wins for the season.  Always nice to hit those season-total bets before November.  And with the season we've had, a silver lining in a dark cloud indeed.

In a college football season loaded with exciting plays, this week's edition took place in Durham as Miami beat Duke on the final play.

While electric, it was also illegal and never should have counted.  Following the game, the ACC suspended the entire referee crew for blowing multiple calls on the play.

In a classy move, the University of Miami came out and gracefully admitted that they were lucky and the beneficiary of blown calls.

And in other news, Frank Beamer decided that he will retire at the end of the year.  29 seasons.  234 wins.  What a legend.