Parity

It took some time but I finally crawled out of my 2-8 start and am sitting even at 20-20.  I have had the biggest struggle picking 5 games this week than any week this season.  I don't know if this will be a good or bad thing and I don't like the fact that there really isn't a lay-up SEC line this week.  Thus, my efforts focus on the ACC; the fifth conference nobody talks about.  

In other news, this was the absolute closest I have ever been to picking Michigan but something about Kill retiring and Minnesota making this their night game paired with the fact that they have a pretty solid D and showed up for their other big game this season (TCU) has me worried.  Minnesota and likely no other school will ever again have a coach that is a doppleganger to their mascot.

Overall feeling going into week nine:

Kevin's Week Eight Picks

W - Tennessee (+15.5) over Alabama
L - Missouri (-3) over Vanderbilt
L - Florida State (-6.5) over Georgia Tech
W - Colorado (+2.5) over Oregon State
W - Wisconsin (-7) over Illinois (LOW)

Kevin's 2015 Record

Overall - 20-20 (50%)

Last Week - 3-2 (60%)

Lock of Week - 5-3 (63%)

Kevin's Week Nine Picks

USC (-5.5) over Cal

Clemson (-10) over NC State

Miami (+11) over Duke

Boston College (+2.5) over VT

Navy (-7) over USF (LOW)

Thursday Update

+ Lasko’s Week 9 Picks --

Wyoming (+28) - Utah State

//

Line moves this week:
Washington State has been a popular wise guy side the last few weeks, with good results, and the Cougars are on the sharp playlist again as they entertain Stanford.

California is drawing pro action. The sharps nailed USC in a big way last week, but they appear to be lining up against the Trojans this time.

Vanderbilt is getting wise guy money, and the sharper houses have this game one full point lower than the square shops as this is been written. The public will be backing Houston again.

//

Arizona State is wearing Pat Tillman tribute jerseys for the Oregon game tonight.  Classy move.

The Sun Devils -2.5 just became the lock of the century. 

Keep On Trucking

I will take a winning week every week.  And I felt good about my two loser.  MSU/IND was a 5 point game with 7 minutes left in the game until IU laid an egg.  It took a monsoon and Baylor's QB breaking his neck for them not to hit the over.  Back at it...

Connors' Week Eight Picks

Tennessee (+15.5) over Alabama-Winner
Indiana(+16.5) over Michigan State-Loser
Wisconsin (-6) over Illinois-Winner
Houston (-21.5) over Central Florida-Winner
Baylor/ISU o79-Loser

Connors' 2015 Record

Overall - 16-14 (53%)

Last Week - 3-2

Connors' Week 9  Picks

Pittsburgh (+3) over North Carolina

Temple (+10.5) over Notre Dame

Florida (-3) over Georgia

Stanford (-12) over Washington State

Central Michigan (-3) over Akron

Thoughts:  Pittsburgh is at home, where they never play.  Of there 7 games, only 2 have been at home so far, which tells me they are underrated.  UNC has a good offense, if only Pitt had hired the top defensive coordinator last year to head their team, hmmm.  What does Temple have to do to get respect, their defense will keep it close.  Take Mark Richt in a big game, dare ya.  Stanford's closest game since losing week 1 has been a 10 point win on the road against USC, team is rolling.  Go back and read my post after the NW game, I said take a futures bet that they will win the Pac-12.  Akron has beaten Eastern, Savannah St and Louisana Lafayette, not exactly murders row, CMU walks out with an easy win.  

Week 9

+ Lasko’s Week 9 Picks --

Iowa State (+7) - Texas
Central Florida (+24.5) - Cincinnati
Vanderbilt (+13) - Houston
Colorado State (+4.5) - San Diego State

Last Week: 2-2
Season: 18-27 (40.0%)
Career: 344-282-14 (55.0%)

//

When Houston runs it up on Vandy this Saturday and I ask myself why I keep fading the Cougs.

Week 8 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Florida State
Temple (+3) - East Carolina

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
Central Florida (+21.5) - Houston
Kansas State (+7) - Texas

//

The largest underdog to win straight up:
Northwestern (+7) at Nebraska, 30-28

The largest favorite to cover:
Brigham Young (-50.5) vs. Wagner, 70-6


As predicted on the Stream, Georgia Tech was a lock.  No sweat.

On the other end of the spectrum, I kinda regret my Central Florida pick.  If we're looking for positives, the mascot's reaction to Houston scoring 100 unanswered points in the third quarter was sneaky hilarious.

Thursday Update

+ Lasko’s Week 8 Picks --

Kansas State (+7) - Texas

//

Line moves this week:
The sharps like USC, Alabama, Ole Miss, Colorado, and Boston College.

Miracles

My face when I realize Dombo is on fire right now and catching right up to me.

Alright, I could go into a long winded rant about the MSU/UM game, however I won't.  The game is over, my University won and I am happy.  There are only two things I will say.  First, go check out my score predication in my post last week, nailed it.  Two, Lasko, I need to know what your boy Dave had to say, have to hear it.

Connors' Week Seven Picks

L-WVU/Baylor Under

L-FLA/LSU Under

W- MSU/UM Over

Connors' 2015 Record

Overall - 13-12 (52%)

Last Week - 1-2

Connors' Week Eight Picks

Tennessee (+15.5) over Alabama
Indiana(+16.5) over Michigan State
Wisconsin (-6) over Illinois
Houston (-21.5) over Central Florida
Baylor/ISU o79

Thoughts: Tennessee has the talent to stay with Alabama, just not the experience, this game will be close til the end until Bama pulls away at the end, plus UT had a bye week to prepare.  This is a nightmare matchup for MSU, Indiana can throw and MSU has a terrible secondary.  MSU is going to try and limit possessions in this game which means a close game.  Wisconsin is just a better team here.  Houston is playing 0-7 CFU and has the offense to cover 21 points.  I finally figured out Baylor, Art Briles is on a mission this year to make the playoffs and the only way he does that with his weak non conference schedule is too pile up the points.  

Have a great week.

Pounding the Pavement

I will remain humble despite the past few weeks.  As an angry unlikeable coach once said, "Pride comes before the fall".  I'm putting my head down, and doing what I do, and will continue to pick winners.  Although not one, nor two, but three of my friends thought week six's 4-1 record was such a fluke that they picked against every single week seven pick and coined the betting platform, "Fading Dombro".  Their assumption was obviously that after such positive variance in week six, week seven would quickly revert to normalcy.  What they didn't know was that the time to fade me was early.  Like central limit theorem proves, with enough samples, the true sample mean will be met with predictible variance and expectations thereof.  I'm not sleeping until I am well in the green.  

Overall feeling going into week Eight

Kevin's Week Seven Picks

L - Kentucky (+2) over Auburn

W - Utah State (+9.5) over Boise State

W - Syracuse (+7) over Virginia

W - Notre Dame (-7) over USC

W - Alabama (-4) over Texas A&M (LOW)

Kevin's 2015 Record

Overall - 17-18 (48%)

Last Week - 4-1 (80%)

Lock of Week - 4-3 (57%)

Kevin's Week Eight Picks

Tennessee (+15.5) over Alabama
Missouri (-3) over Vanderbilt
Florida State (-6.5) over Georgia Tech
Colorado (+2.5) over Oregon State
Wisconsin (-7) over Illinois (LOW)

Week 8

+ Lasko’s Week 8 Picks --

Central Florida (+21.5) - Houston
Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Florida State
Temple (+3) - East Carolina


Last Week: 3-4
Season: 16-25 (39.0%)
Career: 342-280-14 (55.0%)

//

UH at UCF: UCF has been terrible ATS, Houston has been covering every week.  This line is so inflated it hurts.  I'll take the home dog.

FSU at GT: Rematch of last year's ACC title game that was part of GT's nine-game cover streak. GT typically performs well as a dog.

Temple at EC: The Owls are undefeated and ranked for the first time since 1979.  Hoot.

Wait.... Temple is undefeated?

Week 7 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
UNC Charlotte (+8.5) - Old Dominion
North Texas (+35.5) - Western Kentucky
Nebraska (+2) - Minnesota

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
Washington (-1) - Oregon
Virginia Tech (+6.5) - Miami FL
Tulane (+20.5) - Houston
Under 48 - Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech

//

The largest underdogs to win straight up:

Georgia State (+14, +450 ML) at Ball State, 31-19

The largest favorites to cover:

Toledo (-28.5) vs. Eastern Michigan, 63-20

Despite a handful of highly anticipated matchups, it turned out to be just a regular saturday.  No big surprises.

Leonard Fournette led LSU to a win over Florida and might have killed a guy with a stiff-arm.

Despite giving up 590 yards to USC, Notre Dame handled the Trojans.  Before the game, the Irish fans viciously burned Steve Sarkisian and his drinking problem.  Nice job guys.

And finally, Ohio State won its 20th straight game with a victory over Penn State while wearing some sweet black uniforms.  B. Miler.  Nailed it.

That's it.  In hindsight it was a fairly uneventful saturday.

Thursday Update

+ Lasko’s Week 7 Picks --

North Texas (+35.5) - Western Kentucky
Tulane (+20.5) - Houston
Nebraska (+2) - Minnesota
Under 48 - Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech

A new first for the Stream this week -- I'm fading myself.  My over/under bets this year are 1-5 and honestly should be 0-6 save for a magical 4th quarter in that BYU-Boise game.  The algorithm doesn't like, it LOVES the Over in Pitt/GT.  Major roll of the dice here.

//

Line moves this week:
The public is banging MSU but the sharp dollars have been on Michigan. One bookie said that he's gotten hit with sharp action every week on the Wolverines and that this line apparently did not scare anyone away.

Florida is now getting sharp play. The line was adjusted for the Grier suspension and the pros decided to take the points when that happened.

Virginia Tech is getting hit pretty hard now. Speculation is that the Hokies might get Brewer back for this game, but it's also anti-Miami money.

Washington was a substantial sharp side early, and the Huskies are now also getting the bulk of the public action.

Charlotte has gotten some play, and this is a game where the volume is low and even a small dose of sharp money was going to move the line.  Sidenote: The line moved from +8.5 to +5 since my post on Monday and I think we have to believe that this was caused by the Mainstream following.

//

This should be one of the best saturdays of the year.  A big-time schedule, and leading the way is Michigan vs. Michigan State in the Big House.

#prayformagic

In the words of (my friend) Dave Portnoy... "Honestly this is SO disrespectful.  The only thing more disrespectful than this is the fact Michigan is an 8 point favorite on Saturday.  Talk about taking out a white glove and slapping Sparty in the face with it.  And the best part is Michigan State won’t do anything about it.  They’ll just sit there and take it like a bitch because that’s what Little Brothers do.  They exist to get picked on and beat on and pushed around the ring."

With a grain of salt...

Nothing like a 4-0 week to get us in the green! Feels good to be on the plus side

Connors' Week Six Picks

W-Kstate +9.5

W-Ark +17

W- UM/NW Over

W-CMU +7.5

Connors' 2015 Record

Overall - 12-10 (55%)

Last Week - 4-0 (100%)

Lock of Week - 3-3 (50%)

Take the Week 7 picks with a grain of salt.  I will actually be in northern michigan this weekend on a camping trip, so I won't be watching any games.  

West Virginia/Baylor - Under 80 -  The shoe finally falls on Baylor's offense.  I see this game ending two ways. 1- Baylor gets high 40's and WVU just cant keep up and and loses something like 49-21.  Or Baylor, finally playing a defense, has trouble scoring and the game is something like 35-31. Either way it is under.  If you play this game wait til Saturday, it will continue to go up.

Florida/LSU Under 47.5- I can't see Florida going into LSU with a new QB and scoring much on this LSU team, conversely I don't see LSU getting much on this Florida defense.  See a 20-10 type game out of this one.

UM/MSU- Over 40.5- MSU's defense will give up one long td (as they are prone to do) and UM will get some scoring drives.  MSU offense will have a couple of long drives and get some points. MSU's special teams are terrible and UM will get a cheapy TD (FG block, punt return, etc).  Game will finish somewhere around 24-20, maybe a bit higher.

Final Note: Isn't it great having an MSU/UM game mean something in October.  The only thing I ask is that the fans embrace this like an Auburn/Bama type rivalry where we don't act like the loser is going to be terrible for the next decade.  I for one want UM to be good each year along with State to make this game mean something each year.  Let's enjoy it, winners get to brag for a year and we come back next year with another big game.  Might be tough next year with MSU losing Cook and Michigan having 17 of their 22 starters as seniors.  I think MSU pulls out a close one this year.  I will always have faith in the better QB and have't seen UM in a close game in the 4th and trust Cook more than Ruddock to pull one out, but I won't be surprised if either team won.

MSU- 27 UM -23 (not a pick for the stream)

GO GREEN GO WHITE!

Metamorphosis

Like I said, the SEC is far too predictable.  If Ole Miss doesn't keep their starters in to run up the score and drop 21 second half points on a very weak NMSU, I have a perfect week.  Ole Miss does what Ole Miss does best and smokes bad teams in the second half instead of shutting down and not showing any new offense.  Nonetheless, these past two weeks show my metamorphosis into a good selector and I expect this to continue the rest of the season now that I have watched enough football.  

My journey to a net profit this year:

Overall feeling going into week 7:

Kevin's Week Six Picks

L - New Mexico State (+43.5) over Mississippi

W - Tennessee (+3) over Georgia

W - LSU (-12) over South Carolina

W - Arkansas (+16.5) over Alabama 

W - Florida (-5) over Missouri (LOW)

Kevin's 2015 Record

Overall - 13-17 (43%)

Last Week - 4-1 (80%)

Lock of Week - 3-3 (50%)

Kevin's Week Seven Picks

Kentucky (+2) over Auburn

Utah State (+9.5) over Boise State

Syracuse (+7) over Virginia

Notre Dame (-7) over USC

Alabama (-4) over Texas A&M (LOW)

Week 7

+ Lasko’s Week 7 Picks --

Washington (-1) - Oregon
Virginia Tech (+6.5) - Miami FL
UNC Charlotte (+8.5) - Old Dominion

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 13-21 (38.2%)
Career: 339-276-14 (55.1%)

//

This might be it for Oregon.  3-3 record, 1-2 in the Pac-12.  Bragging about 4,893 uniform combinations is all fun and games until you realize you’re an underdog against Washington.  With that said, the Huskies are 0-11 vs. the line against the Ducks since 2003.

Va Tech and Miami are similar teams.  Beamer is 4-1 as a visiting dog the past two years.  Take the points and expect a close game.

Old Dominion is 0-5 ATS this year, 2-11 in their last 13, and their offense averages less than 300 yards/gm.




PS – A lot of people chirping me about my UofM/MSU prediction last week.  People saying it would be a pick’em game.  People saying that there’s no chance Michigan would be favored by a touchdown.

Week 6 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Toledo (-16) - Kent State
Notre Dame (-14) - Navy

+ Lasko’s Losers -- 
Syracuse (+4) - South Florida
Texas State (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette
Under 72 - SMU vs. Houston

Kevin and Couch combined for an 8-1 record on saturday.  Way to carry the Stream, boys.

//

The largest underdogs to win straight up:

Washington (+17) at USC, 17-12

Washington State (+15.5) at Oregon, 45-38 (2OT)

The largest favorites to cover:

Baylor (-46) at Kansas, 66-7

Mississippi (-46) vs. New Mexico State, 52-3

The biggest upset on Saturday came in the Red River Rivalry Shootout at the Cotton Bowl as Texas (+15) upended Oklahoma to save the job of Charlie Strong for now.

In less fortunate news, it sounds like Bevo is on his deathbed.  Nice to see the players rally for Bevo.  #prayforbevo

In the state of Michigan, the Wolverines blanked Northwestern 38-0 after the Wildcats had allowed a total of 35 points through their first five games.  Michigan has now posted three straight shutouts.  MSU beat Rutgers by 7.  Some thought the Scarlet Knights might have a chance at the end of the game on a 4th down hail mary, but their QB spiked the ball instead.

An interesting strategy.

Notre Dame rebounded with a 41-24 win against Navy to move to 4-0 SU/ATS in South Bend. The Irish have also covered four straight games since their only non-cover of the season at Virginia back on Sept. 12. The Irish will host USC next Saturday.

Wake Forest snuck past Boston College 3-0 in Chestnut Hill, as the Under is a perfect 5-for-5 for the Eagles.

In Bad Beats this week....

Anyone who had the 'over' in Baylor-Kansas (76.5) felt like they were in great shape with the Bears ahead 66-7 after three quarters. But a sure over turned into a losing ticket with a scoreless quarter.  Through five games Baylor has played the 117th, 121st, 123rd, and 124th best defenses out of 128 FBS teams, and an FCS school.

If you had the 'under' (71) in Washington State-Oregon, you hated Washington State's game-tying touchdown with :01 left in regulation to force overtime, 31-31. Still the game could have still ended favorably, but the two teams exchanged touchdowns in the first overtime to push the total over. It was a rough beating in the late-night game.

Thursday Update

+ Lasko’s Week 6 Picks --

Texas State (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette
Under 72 - SMU vs. Houston

//

Line moves this week:
Kent State is generating purchases from the wise guys, and this game could be a bit of a pros/joes battleground with the public siding on Toledo so far.  I absolutely hate seeing this.

Baylor is getting loads of square love but there is no objection from the sharps.

Nebraska is still a small favorite against Wisco despite a considerable volume edge on Badgers.

PS - Streamers are anxiously waiting for Fred to return to the comment section after a 4-2 posting last week, not to mention cashing on his Lock of the Millennium.

Double PS - If Michigan and MSU both win by their spread this saturday, the Wolverines will be favored by 7 to 10 points the following weekend in Ann Arbor.

Winning

Nothing more exciting than holding an "over" ticket on the highest total in history, and it cashing 2 minutes into the 4th quarter. Since the start of the 3pm games last week I am 2-0, lady luck is starting to go my way.




Last Week:

MSU -21-L

Maryland -15.5 - L

Texas Tech/Baylor over 89.5- W

Oregon -7.5-W



This Week:

Kansas St +9.5- Two things you should know. TCU's margin of victory away from home (@ Min, @ Texas Tech) is a 4.5 points (9 total points, less than the spread). Plus they are going against the master of covering, Bill Snyder.


Arkansas +17- Haven't lost by more than 7 on the road this year and catching Alabama after a big victory in Athens. Arkansas should have won this game last year but lost 14-13. I expect a 10 point game in this one.


Michigan/NW over35- All the numbers say bet the under. Michigan with 2 straight shutouts. Northwestern shuts out Minnesota last week. However, this is the lowest total I have seen all year and it will take one crazy play to take this over 35. Think about this, if this score of this game is 21-17, you have a losing ticket. Don't be holding that ticket.


Central Michigan +7.5- CMU would be the 10th best team in the Big Ten. Western would be the 11th. You are getting more than a TD for a better team. Take it, crush it.

Certainty

This week, I see huge value (same as last week) on betting SEC games.  The SEC is really a fable at this point.  It's all perception....and ESPN's perception.  It is still only slightly the best conference and a few teams (Bama, LSU, and possibly Florida) really do look the part.  Anyone else, no matter the ranking, is HIGHLY overrated and tend to get large public bets.  Thus, I'm only picking SEC games this week.  Free money betting me this week.  

My journey to the top so far:

When I get asked how my picks went Saturday night:

Kevin's Week Five Picks

L - Wisconsin (-6.5) over Iowa

L - Northern  Illinois (-2) over Central Michigan

W - Boston College (+6.5) over Duke

W - Navy (-5.5) over Air Force

W - Alabama (+2) over Georgia (LOW)

Kevin's 2015 Record

Overall - 9-16 (36%)

Last Week - 3-2 (60%)

Lock of Week - 2-3 (40%)

Kevin's Week Five Picks

New Mexico State (+43.5) over Mississippi

Tennessee (+3) over Georgia

LSU (-12) over South Carolina

Arkansas (+16.5) over Alabama 

Florida (-5) over Missouri (LOW)

Week 6

+ Lasko’s Week 6 Picks --

Toledo (-16) - Kent State
Syracuse (+4) - South Florida
Notre Dame (-14) - Navy

Last Week: 3-3
Season: 11-18 (37.9%)
Career: 337-273-14 (55.2%)

Week 5 Roundup

+ Lasko’s Winners -- 
Marshall (-19.5) - Old Dominion
Baylor (-15) - Texas Tech
Iowa (+7) - Wisconsin

+ Lasko’s Losers --
Appalachian State (-23) - Wyoming
Colorado (+9.5) - Oregon
Over 53.5 - Marshall vs. Old Dominion

For those keeping score at home, that's 1-4 on over/under bets, and it took a miracle to land that one win.  When do we start fading?

//

The largest underdog to win straight up:
Arizona State (+13, ML +400) at UCLA, 38-23

The largest favorite to cover:
Boise State (-27.5) vs. Hawaii, 55-0

It was a topsy-turvy day for the Top 25, as several big teams fell on this first Saturday of October. Bad weather affected games from coast to coast, mostly keeping scores way down.

In the state of Michigan, UofM pitched its second straight shutout, topping Maryland 28-0, and they have now allowed just 7 points in the last 15 quarters.  The under is a perfect 5-0 for the Wolverines this season.  MSU had to hang on tight at home in front of a sellout crowd, narrowly escaping 24-21 against Purdue. The Spartans are now 0-5 ATS.

Ohio State turned in their fourth straight mediocre performance. They survived at previously unbeaten Indiana, 34-27, but have yet to wow anyone. That's four straight non-covers and unders heading into next weekend's game against Maryland.  If you want to look at the positives, the Buckeyes' fans still have faith in Cardale....

Baylor-Texas Tech had a total set an at unheard of 90, and they easily eclipsed it as predicted by Couch on wednesday.  The over is 4-0 for Baylor and 4-1 for Texas Tech this season.

In Bad Beats this week....

The Alabama-Georgia game had a total of 48 points after three quarters, just three points short of the total. After a scoreless fourth quarter 'over' bettors were left shaking their heads.  We also had Verne show us how to wear a chinstrap.

If you had under 61 in the Arizona-UCLA game, you were likely cursing at the TV with :45 left when Arizona State cracked off a 23-yard touchdown run to seal their stunning 38-23 road victory.

Notre Dame was down 21-3 heading to the fourth quarter, but the Irish outscored the Tigers 19-3 in a driving rain. The Irish had a chance to tie with :07 left in regulation but they failed on the two-point conversion.  ND still earned the backdoor cover to kill Clemson side bettors who were winning for the first 59:53.

Think Dabo cares his team almost blew a huge lead?

PS - #prayforthesec

Thursday Update

+ Lasko’s Week 5 Picks --

Iowa (+7) - Wisconsin
Over 53.5 - Marshall vs. Old Dominion

//

Line moves this week:
Appalachian State got pro dough and is now laying considerably more than at the opener.  Think I saw someone predict this earlier in the week.

Minnesota is drawing some wise guy cash as a road dog at Northwestern.

Colorado is a sharp choice, and this is one where the square money is on the road favorite Oregon. Battleground game looming here.