Week 14 Recap

Saturday was exactly why you don't mess with college football in November.  I woke up on Saturday thinking all of my calculated plays were going to go undefeated.  Before I know it, up is down, down is up and I can't make sense of anything.  I mean look at the Michigan - Ohio State game.  Gardner's first pass of the game sails right into the hands of an OSU safety, Vonn Bell.  Unrelated but kinda related, it may have been Bell's second best catch of the game.

Anyways, OSU scores a few plays later.  I got 75 texts from friends all saying the same thing... This is going to be a blowout!!!  Fast forward and the game has turned into a battle.  If not for a few coaching blunders by Hoke, Michigan would be leading in the 3rd quarter and there's no chance OSU covers the 21 points.  Oh wait, the Buckeyes score two touchdowns in 50 seconds and now lead 42-21.  But there's still a few minutes left and yep, Michigan backdoors the cover with a minute to go.  Vintage November football.  Almost impossible to predict.

+ Week 14 Winners -- 

Virginia Tech (+1.5) - Virginia

+ Week 14 Losers -- 

Massachusetts (+2) - Buffalo

Penn State (+13.5) - Michigan St

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Last Week: 1-2

Season: 52-61-2 (46.0%)

Net Units: -7

Win/Loss: $-1336.30

PS - Hey Coach Hoke,

Rivalry Week

Rivalry games on top of rivalry games. All day.

Let's take a look at my plans for the next 12 hours:

Thursday Picks

Watching Buffalo take a 20-0 lead en route to their first road win of the season:

OK, the line for Penn State did not rise.  At all.  I mean it even dropped to +13 for a minute.  But that's neither here nor there.  Here's what I know.  The Spartans have not been held below 35 points since Oct. 4 against Nebraska.  The over/under is 45 and it's going to be a low scoring game.  The Spartans are getting a ton of public money.   It's a total mystery.  I wouldn't recommend betting on Penn State, but I wouldn't recommend not betting on them either.  Either way, I need a mid-afternoon grind tomorrow.

+ Week 14 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Penn State (+13.5) - Michigan St

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Lines: 11/27/2014 12:00pm

Week 14

Virginia and Buffalo are road favorites.  Virginia and Buffalo are both 0-4 on the road.  Give me the home dogs.  One time.

+ Week 14 Picks --

1 Unit

Virginia Tech (+1.5) - Virginia

Massachusetts (+2) - Buffalo

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Lines: 11/24/2014 11:00am

PS – Will be betting Penn State this week against Sparty.  Just waiting for the line to rise, then will attack.  (Currently +13.5)

Double PS – Do any of my Sparty friends like it when I pick against MSU on the Stream?

Week 13 Recap

Watching UNC play their best game this year when I bet against them:

Outside of Duke getting pillaged by their rival North Carolina, it was almost a special week.  Stanford covered easily.  The Stream liked Kansas State but the line never reached +3 and we missed that opportunity.  We also predicted the Utah St line (-11.5) to increase and considered betting the Aggies as a value play.  Well the line closed at -14.5 and Utah St proceeded to win by 34 points.  

Coming up on rivalry week for a lot of teams.  Need to finish strong.

+ Week 13 Winners -- 

Stanford (-6) - California

+ Week 13 Losers -- 

Duke (-6) - North Carolina

+ Push -- 

North Texas (-3) - Florida Int'l

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Last Week: 1-1-1

Season: 51-59-2 (46.4%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-1227.21

Week 13

When I saw that Duke and Stanford were only 6-point favorites this week:

The old saying goes that when it's a rivalry game, throw the records out the window.  Well whoever said that has never seen Cal and North Carolina play defense.  Both give up over 500 yards per game, 125th and 127th in the country.  There are 128 teams.  Disgusting.

+ Week 13 Picks --

1 Unit

Stanford (-6) - California

Duke (-6) - North Carolina

North Texas (-3) - Florida Int'l

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Lines: 11/17/2014 11:00am

PS - Strictly based on value, I think these lines will increase and are worth consideration.  Nevada -8.  Utah St -11.5. 

I also like Kansas St +2.5 vs West Virginia but think that line is going up and will wait.

Week 12 Recap

My reaction when Florida State took the lead over Miami in the 4th quarter:

Here’s why college football is such a crazy game and people will always love it.  Last week, LSU took Alabama (the best team in the country) to overtime and arguably should have won the game in regulation.  They were tough, their defense was suffocating, Les Miles was chewing grass.  And this week, well they got rolled by a team that owned a 17-game conference losing streak (longest in the nation) and looked like a high school team trying to run the ball.  36 rushing yards on 32 rushes.  My goodness.

PS – Every fall, the leaves change, the air gets cold, and Oregon State is going to upset a ranked team in Corvallis.  Great win for the Beavers.

+ Week 12 Winners -- 

SMU (+11.5) - South Florida

Florida St (-2) - Miami FL

Tennessee (-7) - Kentucky

Oregon St (+9.5) - Arizona St

+ Week 12 Losers -- 

Idaho (-5) - Troy

LSU (+2.5) - Arkansas

Nevada (+2) - Air Force

Ball St (+3.5) - Massachusetts

Wake Forest (+17) - North Carolina St

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Last Week: 4-5

Season: 50-58-1 (46.3%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-1218.12

Saturday's Lineup

12pm Ohio St at Minnesota
3:30pm Miss State at Bama (The Verne Lundquist special)
3:30pm Nebraska at Wisconsin
7:15pm Auburn at Georgia (Todd Gurley II returns)
8pm Florida St at Miami

What I will look like all day Saturday.*  Planted in front of the TV.  Non-stop eating.  I'm talking from morning til night.

*Substitute that apple with Chipotle and Pequods and it's a thousand percent accurate.

Thursday Picks

A little line movement yesterday and Wake Forest is up to +17.  I like what Wake is bringing to the table lately.  No they're not even a decent football team but in the last two weeks, they've lost by 6 to Boston College and 14 to Clemson.  Covered both.  And it's not like the Wolfpack are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in Raleigh.  Oh wait...

PS - Hey Ball State
(Witness the LSU fan in the crowd... Subtle)

+ Week 12 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Wake Forest (+17) - North Carolina St

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Lines: 11/13/2014 12:00pm

Week 12

Trying to predict winners in November:

We’re now into the homestretch of the regular season.  Love my picks this week.  Could go a perfect 8-0.  Hasn’t been done this season or even talked about but I think we’re looking at 8 winners.  Let’s roll.

PS – I know Florida St is a sucker line and the public is betting heavy on the Seminoles.  Well I don’t trust a freshman Miami quarterback in primetime.  Guy is going to fold.

Double PS – Keep an eye out for bad teams who appear to have little to play for other than pride and seem ready to hoist the white flag.  They will often circle one battle as their ‘bowl game’.  This was on display last week as Clemson visited Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are weak and have a remote chance at avoiding a winless ACC campaign.  But if you watched the game on Thursday night, it was readily apparent that Wake was going to fight.  They eventually lost to Clemson but Wake battled the heavily favored Tigers to a first half standstill.  On national TV at home, this was the proverbial bowl game for Wake Forest and covered the spread wire to wire.

+ Week 12 Picks --

1 Unit

SMU (+11.5) - South Florida

Florida St (-2) - Miami FL

Idaho (-5) - Troy

LSU (+2.5) - Arkansas

Tennessee (-7) - Kentucky

Nevada (+2) - Air Force

Ball St (+3.5) - Massachusetts

Oregon St (+9.5) - Arizona St

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Lines: 11/10/2014 12:00pm

Week 11 Recap

Just when people forgot about the Stream we put together back to back winning weeks.

Three of the underdogs won outright.  And Florida State would have been a lock to cover if Virginia saved any of their timeouts for the end of the game.  Instead the Noles took knees inside the red zone to run out the clock.

+ Week 11 Winners -- 

Texas A&M (+22) - Auburn

Bowling Green (+7) - Akron

North Texas (+4) - Florida Atlantic

+ Week 11 Losers -- 

Georgia St (+7) - Troy

Florida St (-17.5) - Virginia

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Last Week: 3-2

Season: 46-53-1 (46.5%)

Net Units: -5

Win/Loss: $-1081.76

Week 11

Classic slate for the Stream in early November.  Four underdogs and a top-ranked team that isn't getting enough respect.

Fundamentally I wouldn't have a problem betting all underdogs during the final weeks but Virginia has been a dumpster fire over the last month and we'd be dumb not to take advantage.  I'm all in.

+ Week 11 Picks --

1 Unit

Texas A&M (+22) - Auburn

Bowling Green (+7) - Akron

Georgia St (+7) - Troy

Florida St (-17.5) - Virginia

North Texas (+4) - Florida Atlantic

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Lines: 11/3/2014 12:00pm

Week 10 Recap

The Stream is back!  Sure the two games with the best value both lost.  UNC dropped down to +14.5 and Stanford closed at +7, and they both turned into duds, but I digress.  The Stream is going to bring it every Saturday for the rest of the year and I wouldn’t be surprised to finish above 50%.

PS - When Pitt missed a chip shot to end the game in regulation and give the Stream a half-point cover:

+ Week 10 Winners -- 

West Virginia (+6) - TCU

Temple (+7.5) - East Carolina

Brigham Young (-4.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Missouri (-6.5) - Kentucky

Duke (+3.5) - Pittsburgh

+ Week 10 Losers -- 

North Carolina (+17) - Miami FL

Stanford (+10) - Oregon

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Last Week: 5-2

Season: 43-51-1 (45.7%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-1154.49