Week 6

Need to make a splash this week.  Thinking 5-0.  Some may say this slow start is a cause for concern.  People are probably thinking that the Mainstream has lost its touch.  Well this is the exactly the time that the Stream digs in and delivers.  I legit don't think it's possible that we finish below .500 in back-to-back months.  Not today, not ever.

Now to the games.  Do I think there's value on Michigan +3.5 in Piscataway?

2 Units

Washington St (-3) - California

1 Unit

Georgia Tech (+2) - Miami FL

Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

Rice (-6) - Hawaii

SMU (+40) - East Carolina

//

Lines: 9/29/2014 1:00pm

Week 5 Recap

Dialed up a few winners and losers on Saturday.  So much value in the Syracuse line to not deliver (Cuse lost by 16).  Some of the Stream's biggest +EV plays this year have been duds.

Bowling Green hung on to beat UMass in a game where both teams went well over 600 yards in total offense. The final Minutemen TD created a potential middle for players who got the optimum numbers on each side that were available during the week.

Ohio State clubbed Cincinnati. The Bearcats got a couple of late first half scores to make this interesting for a bit. But the Buckeyes were way too much, and ended up with some lopsided stat advantages.

Duke flopped in a big spot at Miami. The Blue Devils were gaining lots of believers with their early play, but they got pretty well owned in this one by the ‘Canes. The game was still there for the taking in the fourth quarter with the margin only six, but I never got the sense at any point that Duke would get the win.

Georgia hung on to outlast Tennessee 35-32 in a very exciting game. Todd Gurley ran wild again for the Bulldogs.

+ Week 5 Winners -- 

Ohio State (-14.5) - Cincinnati

Bowling Green (-4.5) - Massachusetts

Vanderbilt (+17) - Kentucky

Rice (-8) - Southern Miss

+ Week 5 Losers -- 

Syracuse (+14) - Notre Dame

SMU (+31) - TCU

Eastern Illinois (+6) - Ohio U.

Duke (+7) - Miami FL

//

Last Week: 4-4

Season: 31-34 (47.7%)

Net Units: 0

Win/Loss: $-436.32

Thursday Picks

When people get behind the Stream's picks after a 9-4 week:

So people are betting big on Michigan this week?  I have no idea why.  The line opened as low as -7 and the train has left the station.  This game is also drawing a ton of discussion in the Stream’s comment section (two posts).

Popular teams as big chalk don’t usually draw in the sharps but that’s not the case this week with Ohio State.   Lots of pro money on the Bucks.

Bowling Green opened as an -11 point favorite and dropped down to -4.5.  I see some value there.  We’ll toss a unit on the Falcons this week.

There is a sharp/square battle in the Big 12 with the pros backing Iowa State. The public is very reluctant to play against monster offenses like Baylor, this line move is all from sharp bets.

(h/t Dave Cokin)

+ Week 5 Picks (Thursday) --

2 Units

Eastern Illinois (+6) - Ohio U.

1 Unit

Bowling Green (-4.5) - Massachusetts

Duke (+7) - Miami FL

Vanderbilt (+17) - Kentucky

Rice (-8) - Southern Miss

//

Lines: 9/25/2014 11:00am

PS – I’m keeping my eye on ‘Washington St (+13.5) – Utah’ and ‘Kent St (+27.5) – Virginia.’  If they reach +14 and +28, I’ll lock that number.

Monday Afternoon Update

Breaking News: The Syracuse-ND line is going bananas.  I was analyzing this game at 11:30am when it was +14, now it's all over the board.

Some sharps may be discounting Syracuse because they lost 34-20 to Maryland last week.  They outgained the Terps by 220 yards [589 to 369].

This game will be played at Met Life Stadium and if any team gets a home-field advantage, it's probably the Irish.

Week 5

Only hitting a few games early in the week.  I think the Syracuse and Ohio State lines will move, get them early, then prepare for:

+ Week 5 Picks --

2 Units
Syracuse (+14) - Notre Dame

1 Unit
SMU (+31) - TCU
Ohio State (-14.5) - Cincinnati

//

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 27-30 (47.4%)
Net Units: +2
Win/Loss: $-199.96
Lines: 9/22/2014 11:30am

Week 4 Recap

When a winning record was locked in the books:

Outside of Virginia's late TD against BYU, the rest of the 2-unit games went as planned.  Nebraska over Miami with a -7 line was highway robbery.  Expect the Stream to feed results like this the rest of the season.

+ Week 4 Winners -- 

Appalachian St (+3.5) - Southern Miss

Nebraska (-7) - Miami FL

Indiana (+17) - Missouri

Miami OH (+29) - Cincinnati

Georgia Tech (+7.5) - Virginia Tech

Memphis (-7.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Washington St (+23.5) - Oregon

Minnesota (-8.5) - San Jose St

Wake Forest (+2.5) - Army

+ Week 4 Losers -- 

Brigham Young (-15) - Virginia

Bowling Green (+27) - Wisconsin

Rice (-6.5) - Old Dominion

Arizona (-8) - California

//

Last Week: 9-4

Season: 27-30 (47.4%)

Net Units: +2

Win/Loss: $-199.96

Thursday Picks

When the Stream continues to find value early in the week:

In a perfect world the sportsbooks would give Stream readers more than an hour to make picks but I supposed that's the nature of this cut-throat business.  Just an instant shift after I posted my picks on Monday.

I found a report on pregame.com that is posted by a wiseguy (Dave Cokin). When his notes about betting action are relevant to my picks, I’ll post them here. 

// Indiana is off a bad loss to Bowling Green but the Hoosiers attracted early sharp money against Missouri.

// Wisconsin has been getting heavy play right from the opening bell, but it’s not necessarily sharp dough. The line increased five points to -27. The Stream will be siding with the house and pulling for a Bowling Green cover.

// I didn’t bet Akron but they are getting plenty of play from pros. This will be a popular side for sharps but the public is going to be on the favorite, creating a pros vs. joes duel.

+ Week 4 Picks (Thursday) --

2 Units

Washington St (+23.5) - Oregon

Minnesota (-8.5) - San Jose St

1 Unit

Bowling Green (+27) - Wisconsin

Rice (-6.5) - Old Dominion

Arizona (-8) - California

Wake Forest (+2.5) - Army

//

Lines: 9/18/2014 12:00pm

Week 4

When Stream readers see my picks at the end of the week and notice all the lines have moved:

Absolutely love the lineup this week.  Tossing out 7 games early, I think we’ll see some big moves.  Is this the week that the Stream turns it around? 

+ Week 4 Picks --

2 Units

Brigham Young (-15) - Virginia

Appalachian St (+3.5) - Southern Miss

Nebraska (-7) - Miami FL

1 Unit

Indiana (+17) - Missouri

Miami OH (+29) - Cincinnati

Georgia Tech (+7.5) - Virginia Tech

Memphis (-7.5) - Middle Tennessee St

//

Last Week: 4-6

Season: 18-26 (40.9%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-881.79

Lines: 9/15/2014 12:00pm

Week 3 Recap

This is what many would call a bad run.  The Stream continues to find edge.  It was nice to see two of the double-digit underdogs (Iowa State and Boston College) win outright.  On the other hand, the close losses were brutal.  Penn State and UConn missed covering by a half-point. Old Dominion closed at -20 and the Stream locked it in at -15; so much value.  They won by 14.  Western Kentucky went to Triple OT before missing the cover by two points.  Once the Stream starts finishing on the other side of these coinflips, it’s going to be a big move.

+ Week 3 Winners -- 

Stanford (-28) - Army

Iowa St (+12.5) - Iowa

Georgia St (+12) - Air Force

Boston College (+19.5) - Southern Cal

+ Week 3 Losers -- 

Western Kentucky (+1) - Middle Tennessee St

Penn State (-3.5) - Rutgers

Arkansas St (+17) - Miami FL

Old Dominion (-15) - Eastern Michigan

Vanderbilt (-17) - Massachusetts

Connecticut (+16.5) - Boise St

//

Last Week: 4-6

Season: 18-26 (40.9%)

Net Units: -6

Win/Loss: $-881.79

Week 3 - Saturday Special

We have an interesting fact that was discovered by a Stream reader.  The Mainstream's lock of the week [top pick listed] is 16-1 over the last 17 weeks.  Heat check city.

Was away most of this week and wasn't able to post on Thursday.  Got chirped at by many of you.  That being said I'll toss out a Saturday morning special.

//

When I'm just trying to lay on the couch and watch football today while my girlfriend keeps asking to go to the apple orchard:

+ Week 3 Picks  --

1 Unit

Connecticut (+16.5) - Boise St

Week 3

Watching the games at the bar on Saturday:

Have the first two weeks gone as planned?  Absolutely not.  But now we're here and there are only a couple plays left in the playbook so to speak.  Need a big week.

As an aside, I thought about dropping my current strategy and simply fading Big Ten teams.  Every one.  Seems like that's a 1000% guaranteed move to win money this year.

+ Week 3 Picks --

2 Units

Stanford (-28) - Army

1 Unit

Western Kentucky (+1) - Middle Tennessee St

Penn State (-3.5) - Rutgers

Iowa St (+12.5) - Iowa

Georgia St (+12) - Air Force

Boston College (+19.5) - Southern Cal

Arkansas St (+17) - Miami FL

Old Dominion (-15) - Eastern Michigan

Vanderbilt (-17) - Massachusetts

//

Last Week: 4-9

Season: 14-20 (41.2%)

Net Units: -5

Win/Loss: $-736.34

Lines: 9/8/2014 12:00pm

Week 2 Recap

Classic good news bad news situation.  On the positive side, the line moves continued to move in our direction for the second week in a row.   We are getting great value across the board.  On the negative, the games are horrendous.  Heinous efforts from a lot of teams.  Specifically looking at you Vanderbilt.  We lost a few close games early and then when New Mexico State scored a TD with 15 seconds left in their game. 

Overall I’m not overly concerned.  Yeah the short term variance sucks but we are in this for the long con.

PS – On the bright side at least the Mainstream is winning more than the Big Ten. 

+ Week 2 Winners -- 

Wyoming (+2.5) - Air Force

Penn State (-14) - Akron

Utah (-10.5) - Fresno St

Old Dominion (+17) - North Carolina St

+ Week 2 Losers -- 

Ohio State (-10.5) - Virginia Tech

Georgia St (pk) - New Mexico St

Vanderbilt (+20) - Mississippi

Western Kentucky (+6) - Illinois

Texas Tech (-18.5) - UTEP

Duke (-19) - Troy

Kent St (+3) - South Alabama

Towson (+28.5) - West Virginia

South Carolina St (+35) - Clemson

Florida Atlantic (+40.5) - Alabama was cancelled

//

Last Week: 4-9

Season: 14-20 (41.2%)

Net Units: -5

Win/Loss: $-736.34

Thursday Picks

Big games on the schedule this Saturday.  Leading the way is the last meeting between Michigan and Notre Dame.  And by leading the way I mean it's the 4th most relevant game in the college football world on saturday, though it will decidedly draw one of the biggest TV ratings of the year.  Hat-tip to that 50-70 age demographic in the midwest.

Fun fact: Michigan is 24-16-1 vs. the Irish with the 8-game difference all accounted for in the first 8 games of the series. (Michigan outscored Notre Dame 121-16 with 5 shutouts).  If we're not counting victories before the wheel was invented, it's been an even back-and-forth rivalry.

In other big games, Michigan State (7) visits Oregon (3), USC (14) visits Stanford (13), and Virginia Tech visits Ohio State (8) in the horseshoe.

[Every stream reader after collecting their Week 2 winnings]

+ Week 2 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Old Dominion (+17) - North Carolina St

Breaking News: More Lines Posted

A rare Wednesday post on the Stream.  Yesterday only 44 of this week's 74 games had lines.  Well 5Dimes just opened lines for the rest.  They tried to catch us sleeping at the end of the workday but nothing gets by the Mainstream.  Head on a swivel at all times.


+ Week 2 Picks (Wednesday) --

2 Units
Towson (+28.5) - West Virginia

1 Unit
South Carolina St (+35) - Clemson

Full post coming tomorrow afternoon.

PS - When Dana Holgorsen realizes his Mountaineers are in a close game with Towson:

Week 2

My intensity level while scouting the games this week:

It’s a new week and we have the sportsbooks right where we want them.  Oh, it was a subpar week 1?  Perfect.  Now is the time take advantage.  “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”  Sun Tzu, ever heard of him?

Plain and simple, you just can’t stop the Stream every week.  Not possible.  

+ Week 2 Picks --

2 Units

Wyoming (+2.5) - Air Force

Penn State (-14) - Akron

1 Unit

Ohio State (-10.5) - Virginia Tech

Georgia St (pk) - New Mexico St

Vanderbilt (+20) - Mississippi

Western Kentucky (+6) - Illinois

Utah (-10.5) - Fresno St

Texas Tech (-18.5) - UTEP

Florida Atlantic (+40.5) - Alabama

Duke (-19) - Troy

Kent St (+3) - South Alabama

// 

Last Week: 10-11

Season: 10-11 (47.6%)

Net Units: -1

Win/Loss: $-281.80

Lines: 9/2/2014 1:00pm

Week 1 Recap

If there’s anything to take from Week 1, it’s the line movements.  Absurd.  I’m not saying that I’m more confident going into Week 2 after a 10-11 weekend but I am.

The 4-unit bet was such a lock it hurts.  I mean I’m not sure how Georgia Southern lost by a point seeing they were up 10 points with the ball and 6 minutes to go, but it was as easy a cover as you’ll see.

On the other hand I can’t believe the Eastern Michigan line closed at -17, we locked it in at -9, and the Eagles didn’t cover.  In hindsight I probably would have known the bet was doomed the moment Eastern Michigan took the field.  Can’t imagine the hundred fans in Ypsilanti were impressed with this sideshow.

Classic case of overthinking an entrance.  Keep it simple guys.  A little music, some cheerleaders, a flag, it works.  Let’s not reinvent the wheel here.  Skip the concrete next week.

+ Week 1 Winners -- 

Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St

Kansas St (-36.5) - Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota St (+29.5) - Missouri

North Dakota St (+3.5) - Iowa St

Northern Illinois (-41) - Presbyterian

Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

San Jose St (-23.5) - North Dakota

Wisconsin (+5) - LSU

Montana (+13) - Wyoming

+ Week 1 Losers -- 

Indiana (-23.5) - Indiana St

Cal Poly (-3) - New Mexico St

Eastern Illinois (+15.5) - Minnesota

Eastern Michigan (-9) - Morgan St

William & Mary (+20.5) - Virginia Tech

Kent St (-3) - Ohio U

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi

North Texas (+24) - Texas

Connecticut (+16.5) - BYU

Jacksonville St (+32) - Michigan St

Washington (-15) - Hawaii

//

Last Week: 10-11

Season: 10-11 (47.6%)

Net Units: -1

Win/Loss: $-281.80

Recap and Week 2 Picks

Watching everything play out over the weekend and losing close games where we had a huge edge.

With Labor Day, the recap and Week 2 Picks will come tomorrow afternoon.  Everyone have a great holiday and enjoy their last taste of summer.