Thursday Picks

Week 1 Guide:

// Pageviews are up.  Lot of new readers.  For those that are new you will make money betting my picks in 2014.  Facts are facts.  This doesn't mean you have to bet all of them.  I list the picks in order of confidence, top to bottom.  If you only bet the ones near the top, you will clean up.  Beware: Your bookie may legit stop taking action from you.

// There is a lot of uncertainty in September and some lines will move during the week. This is the best time to take advantage.  Lines-makers get better as the season goes on.  Since Monday, many lines have moved in the direction of my picks.  The lines for Georgia Southern, Indiana, Cal Poly, Eastern Michigan, Boston College, and Washington moved 2+ points.  The Eastern Mich line moved from -9 to -15.5 within a few hours on Wednesday.  Never seen such a thing.  The point is to get your picks in early so you can capture the best lines before everyone else catches up.  It's rare but sometimes lines will go against me.  The Northern Illinois and North Texas lines are 1.5 points worse than what I posted on Monday.  This may be the biggest upset of the weekend.

// Many bookies/betting sites don't offer some of the games I posted.  This happens in the first few weeks when there are FBS vs. FCS matchups.  All of these lines come directly from 5Dimes so either get an account there or get rich off the other games.



Two more picks for Week 1.  We are going with Wisconsin in the primetime game.  The Melvin Gordon heisman campaign starts on saturday night.

+ Week 1 Picks (Thursday) --

1 Unit

Wisconsin (+5) - LSU

Montana (+13) - Wyoming

// 

Last Week: 0-0

Season: 0-0

Lines: 8/28/2014 1:00pm

Did The Mainstream Do It Again?

Longtime readers understand it's a well known fact that the Mainstream moves lines.  Wouldn't surprise me if Billy Walters visited the Stream every Monday, just waiting for the locks of the week, then heaving Ks.

Let's do a quick recap.

Week 1 picks were posted at 12pm yesterday [8/25/14].

Seriously?  I mean what other whales out there are riding the Stream's picks?  This can't be a coincidence.  Make yourself known.

Week 1

The Mainstream has come a long way since Season 1.  I guess Rome wasn’t built in a day.  Now we’re here with a full slate of games in Week 1, let’s make some money.

I plan on posting my picks with the same schedule as last year – Monday and Thursday afternoons.  Lines are taken from 5Dimes. 

Along with percentages, I am also going to record my winnings in units (dollar values).  1 unit is $100.  This will help readers see my confidence in each pick.

Week 1 has been a moneymaker for the Stream the past two years.  59% and 71%.  Let’s do it again.

+ Week 1 Picks --

4 Units

Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St

3 Units

Indiana (-23.5) - Indiana St

Kansas St (-36.5) - Stephen F. Austin

South Dakota St (+29.5) - Missouri

Cal Poly (-3) - New Mexico St

2 Units

Eastern Illinois (+15.5) - Minnesota

Eastern Michigan (-9) - Morgan St

William & Mary (+20.5) - Virginia Tech

North Dakota St (+3.5) - Iowa St

Kent St (-3) - Ohio U

Northern Illinois (-41) - Presbyterian

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi

North Texas (+24) - Texas

Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

1 Unit

Connecticut (+16.5) - BYU

Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

San Jose St (-23.5) - North Dakota

Jacksonville St (+32) - Michigan St

Washington (-15) - Hawaii

// 

Last Week: 0-0

Season: 0-0

Lines: 8/25/2014 11am

Season Totals

A lot can happen over the course of the season, injuries, transfers, the works.  But even in the worst case scenario, I see all three of these picks hitting.

+ Season Total Picks -- 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Over 6.5 (-140)

Longtime Stream readers will not be surprised. I’ve picked the Yellow Jackets as much as any other team over the years. Paul Johnson’s system is tough to prepare for in a week and they tend to wear teams down during a game.  Johnson has been a college football coach for 17 seasons and his teams have failed to reach the postseason only once.

Georgia Southern Eagles – Over 4.5 (+110)

First things first.  This team has some of the best uniforms in the game so it’s easy to get behind this pick. Like Alabama, just swap out crimson for navy.  This is Georgia Southern’s first season in the FBS and I’m not saying they make the NCAA playoff but they should compete every week.  After all this is the Georgia Southern team that took down Florida 26-20 in the Swamp last year.

Ohio Bobcats – Under 6.5 (-160)

Few teams lost as many players as Ohio following the 2013 season and there are underclassmen taking over at every key position.

A Taste For Week 1

The official kick-off to the Stream's 2014 pillage-the-sportsbooks tour will begin on Monday. But people don't like waiting for winners and if we are being honest I don't blame you guys.  After all, we know what happens to the lines when I make my picks public.

So am I going to wait until Monday to disclose all my picks?  Of course not.  Here is a taste of what we will be betting come Week 1.

I've already whaled on these 7.  The top two are my favorites, followed by the next three.  And I would like a half-point shift in the bottom two but don't see the lines moving that way.


Georgia Southern (+22.5) - North Carolina St
Kent St (-3) - Ohio U.

Boise St (+10.5) - Mississippi
North Texas (+24) - Texas
Colorado St (+3) - Colorado

Connecticut (+16.5) - Brigham Young
Boston College (-14.5) - Massachusetts

Check back on Monday for the rest.

UPDATE: First post coming soon

Had a few issues at Mainstream HQ today.  First post will arrive tomorrow.

PS - I'm sorry Keith

First Picks Coming Next Week

College football is back.  Buckle up.