Thursday Picks

When I start reaching for lines that I need to shift a half-point:

Eastern Michigan (+30.5) - Toledo
Southern Miss (+31) - Marshall


Also starting to think that Michigan not only covers in East Lansing but they win outright.  Show me how Sparty's offense scores more than 14 points and I’ll show you my unicorn farm.

PS - Three kids won Halloween this year

Week 10

Recent attempts at an undefeated weekend:

Following the recent hot streak, pageviews are rising.  For the new readers, I pick college football games every week.  These are my own picks with the help of a betting algorithm I created three years ago.  They are also free.  Last month I showed a tout website who picked football winners and lost money.  The Stream has been profitable every year.

Some people bet every single pick.  Others only bet the games they like, which I would advise.  Looking at the entire board of games, you have a 50% chance of picking winners.  Start with my slate and you've had a 61.3% chance to pick winners this year.

I select the games at 12pm on Mondays and Thursdays.  My advice, bet them early because the lines will move in my favor.  Just last week, here are the differences from when I made the picks on Monday to Saturday: 4.5, 4.5, 4, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3, 0.

I post my picks in descending order of confidence.  Those at the top are my best selections.

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+ Week 10 Plays --

"Most Confident"
Georgia Tech (-9.5) - Pittsburgh

"Rest of the Picks"

Purdue (+30.5) - Ohio State
San Jose St (-3) - UNLV

Last Week: 5-3-1

Season: 68-43-3 (61.3%)

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Not picking these games but I think the following lines will increase: Syracuse (-3.5), North Carolina (-3), South Carolina (-13), Tulsa (-3).

Week 9 Recap

Watching Oregon scored 28 unanswered points and cover the spread:

How about those Ducks?  I mean the game was tied 14-14 with three minutes left in the 3rd quarter.  That offense has no regards for human life.  Shreds defenses at will.  Pretty sure the band was just playing the fight song on repeat in the 4th.

PS - San Jose State won by 7.  A fellow Streamer faded the pick because of line movement and bet Wyoming +7.5.

+ Week 9 Winners -- 

Kansas St (-10) - West Virginia

San Jose St (-6) - Wyoming

Texas-San Antonio (-4.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

San Diego St (+9.5) - Fresno St

Louisiana-Monroe (-12) - Georgia St

+ Week 9 Losers -- 

Hawaii (+5.5) - Colorado St

Illinois (+11.5) - Michigan St

UCLA (+23.5) – Oregon

+ Push --
Georgia Tech (-10) - Virginia


Last Week: 5-3-1
Season: 68-43-3 (61.3%)

Thursday Picks

Andy Reid -- A guy that can’t manage timeouts, breathes exclusively out of his mouth and now will forever make me think of the Kool-Aid man.


One thursday play:

UCLA (+23.5) – Oregon

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Kansas St (-10) - Outside of garbage time points at Baylor, West Virginia has had a difficult time scoring on the road.  On an unrelated-but-sort-of-related note, I don’t trust Dana Holgorsen.  I mean look at him.  Wouldn’t be surprised if the guy had an abandoned well and some skin suits in his basement.

Illinois (+11.5) – One of my friends was saying that Michigan State could beat any team in the country because of their defense.  Felt like Mel Kiper trying to convince me that a linebacker from Miami with drug problems is worth the gamble because he has explosive speed and a great vertical.  Sparty’s offense, drug problems, can’t win with ‘em.

Georgia Tech (-10) - The Wahoos couldn’t stop Duke last week.  Expect Georgia Tech’s rushing attack to go beast mode.



h/t Kevin for the new logo

Week 9

When the Streamers saw my 12-3 record over the last two weeks:

+ Week 9 Plays --

"Most Confident 5"

Kansas St (-10) - West Virginia
San Jose St (-6) - Wyoming
Texas-San Antonio (-4.5) - Alabama-Birmingham
Hawaii (+5.5) - Colorado St
Illinois (+11.5) - Michigan St

"Rest of the Picks"
Georgia Tech (-10) - Virginia
San Diego St (+9.5) - Fresno St
Louisiana-Monroe (-12) - Georgia St


Last Week: 4-1
Season: 63-40-2 (61.2%)

Week 8 Recap

+ Week 8 Winners -- 

Colorado (-20.5) - Charleston Southern

Purdue (+28) - Michigan St

Missouri (+3) - Florida

Washington St (+39) - Oregon

+ Week 8 Losers -- 

Iowa St (+33.5) - Baylor

Last Week: 4-1
Season: 63-40-2 (61.2%)

Bet lunch with a Streamer on the Florida State - Clemson game.  Obviously I took the Noles.  Adrian, should we go to Ruth's Chris today or tomorrow?

Colorado - Lock City

Bet Colorado on Thursday at -20.5.  Now the line is up to -28.

When the Streamers were running to the sportsbooks to lay Colorado:

Thursday Picks

Fading Baylor and Oregon:

+ Week 8 Plays --

"Most Confident"

Colorado (-20.5) - Charleston Southern

"Rest of the Picks"
Purdue (+28) - Michigan St

Missouri (+3) - Florida

Iowa St (+33.5) - Baylor

Washington St (+39) - Oregon

Last Week: 8-2

Season: 59-39-2 (60.2%)

PS - I don't want #78 to transfer to Michigan and have immediate eligibility - I need it.

Week 8

Looking at the Week 8 schedule:

I'm not making any picks today. Sneaky matchups. On the fence with a few games. Check back on Thursday.

Week 7 Recap

Betting underdogs when the lines are inflated is like taking BP with a corked bat.  And on Saturday we were hitting the ball on the moon.

+ Week 7 Winners -- 

Kansas St (+19) - Baylor
Texas (+14) - Oklahoma
Hawaii (+10) – UNLV

San Jose St (+4) - Colorado St
Florida Atlantic (+12.5) - Marshall
Syracuse (+5.5) - North Carolina St
Arizona St (-25) - Colorado 

Army (-7.5) - Eastern Michigan

+ Week 7 Losers -- 

Utah St (+7) - Boise St
Washington (+14) - Oregon

Last Week: 8-2
Season: 59-39-2 (60.2%)

Thursday Picks

When my friends ask me how I missed the Chuckie Keeton injury:

From Monday's picks, six lines moved in my direction, two remained the same, and one line went against me (Syracuse is now +7).  No respect for the Orange?

Only one new pick for today.


Army (-7.5) - Eastern Michigan


Like I always say when betting against Eastern Michigan, it's not called gambling when you don't lose.

PS - Although my NFL track record is dicey and by that I mean that I've never even sniffed a modicum of success, I'm extremely confident about two games this weekend.  Jacksonville +27.  New York Jets -2.5.  Easy covers. 

Week 7 Notes

Nine picks.  Eight are big contrarian plays going against the public.  The one pick that the public agrees with is Arizona State, also the only favorite.


Utah St (+7) – Would have been real bad if I saw this line, recognized value immediately, whaled on the game with a 5-unit bet, and then realized Chuckie Keeton (Utah St QB) is out for the season.  Except that’s 100% what happened.  Now I know how the Dolphins mascot feels.  Excitement to disappointment in seconds.

Kansas St (+19) – On the offshore sites, the line opened at +10.5 and got slaughtered.  Instantly rose to +17, then as high as +20.  Getting +19 when the bookmakers originally thought +10.5 is value, straight up.

Texas (+14) – Lots of people are down on Texas.  Think Mack is going to get fired.   It’s like that old quote from Gladiator.  Make them think you’re strong when you’re weak and weak when you are strong.  If Bevo is at the Cotton Bowl, Texas might win outright.

Week 7

There's having faith in a few underdogs and then there's having faith that every underdog is a lock.  This is the latter.

When a friend told me that he liked Boise this weekend:

+ Week 7 Plays --

"Most Confident 4"

Utah St (+7) - Boise St
Kansas St (+19) - Baylor
Texas (+14) - Oklahoma
Hawaii (+10) - UNLV

"Rest of the Picks"
San Jose St (+4) - Colorado St
Florida Atlantic (+12.5) - Marshall
Syracuse (+5.5) - North Carolina St
Arizona St (-25) - Colorado
Washington (+14) - Oregon


Last Week: 2-4
Season: 51-37-2 (58.0%)

Week 6 Recap

When I'm at the bar, see my picks went 2-0 in the early games, witness Georgia Tech beating Miami 17-7, and need to celebrate:

When every remaining pick turns into a dud and my friends think it's hilarious:

+ Week 6 Winners -- 

SMU (+7) - Rutgers 

Temple (+34) - Louisville 

+ Week 6 Losers -- 

Syracuse (+13) - Clemson
Colorado (+38) - Oregon 

Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Miami FL
Louisiana-Monroe (+7.5) - Western Kentucky

Last Week: 2-4
Season: 51-37-2 (58.0%)

Favorite Bet On The Board Today

The team total for Georgia State, a 55.5 point underdog against Alabama, is 2.5.

Need it.  Can I get one field goal in Tuscaloosa today.

What are the odds of this winning?  Infinity

Is The Mainstream The Only Website In The World That Picks Winners?

Three things happened at lunch today...

1. Since it's Friday I went with the double order.  Burrito from Chipotle and a big Wreck from Potbelly.  No big deal.

2. Found out traffic on the Mainstream has increased in a big way.  In September, 3,000 pageviews.  Kinda big deal.
3. I had an idea about adding certain statistics to improve my algorithm.  While hunting for data, I came across some website called Team Rankings.  Never seen it before.  Have the Mainstreamers?  Well guess what, I quickly learned they are my competition.  New rival #1.

Team Rankings is a sports website with betting advice.  They charge $49 per month to subscribe to their picks.  Compared to the free picks that I provide on the Mainstream, how do we compare?

2013

Team Rankings:  50.7%

Mainstream:  59.8%

2012

Team Rankings:  50.9%

Mainstream:  53.3% 

2011

Team Rankings:  49.5%

Mainstream:  63.4% 

Bloodbath City!

So naturally I have to assume I'm doing this all wrong.  How is Team Rankings raking in cash with these picks?  I need to hire a business team right?  Guys to handle the business side, marketing, the works.  Guys who wake up in the morning and redefine the meaning of "work ethic".

Prosperous times ahead for the Mainstream indeed.  

Thursday Picks

Everyone loves underdogs.  Everyone loves cash.  Let's bet two more.  Definition of win-win.


Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Miami FL
Louisiana-Monroe (+7.5) - Western Kentucky

All six picks are big-time contrarian plays.  The regular public bettors are betting on every team I'm betting against.  How confident am I this week?  Oh I don't know, how about realizing that the sharps agree with every one of my picks.  NBD.  Time to get paid.

 

PS - Don't like betting six underdogs?

Week 6 Notes

When a coworker stops by my desk and says he bet $1,000 on all four of my picks:

SMU (+7) – Line has dropped 2.5 points.  The power of Mainstream.  Trying to stop it is like trying to stop the tides.

Syracuse (+13) – Cuse has the better defense and is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8.  Ride the hot hand.

Temple (+34), Colorado (+38) – The public is saying things like “No way Louisville won’t win 70-0” and “I would never bet against Oregon.”  Perfect.  The public is hammering both favorites, inflating lines and creating value on the dogs.  Plus the backdoor cover is always in play.  Betting big on both.  If that makes me crazy then put me in a straitjacket.