Bowl Games

Love these rumors of Saban going to Texas.  Be more of a mercenary Saban.

Now people are always upset with the Stream during bowl season.  35 games and I only pick a few.  Two games last year (2-0, nbd).  Starting with three games this year.


+ Bowl Plays --

Utah St (+1.5) - Northern Illinois
Oklahoma St (+1.5) - Missouri
Georgia Tech (+3) - Mississippi


Last Week: 1-0
Season: 84-50-3 (62.7%)

PS - The Stream continues to expand and sharps in Vegas are noticing.  This isn’t exactly your corner lemonade stand anymore.  Probably going to sell the website to the highest bidder in Vegas eventually.

Following my picks has been free money for 3 years.   Before complaining, maybe next time you’ll think twice and have some respect, heathens.

Week 15 Recap

The college football regular season is essentially over and that is heartbreaking, but we did finish 11-1 in our last dozen games.  Silver lining in every cloud I suppose.

Bowling Green flat out dominated Northern Illinois for four quarters.  Every year there are only a few games where you have a complete edge over the sportsbooks and this was one of those games.  Almost 80% of the bets coming in on the undefeated Northern Illinois Huskies, late line movement in Bowling Green's direction, value on top of value.

The game had everything you could want and expect from MACtion.  Big plays, big hits, fans pulling their pants down for extra points.

Ruthless?  Yes.  But show me one fanbase who doesn't try to get in the head of the opponent's kicker and I’ll show you a fanbase who doesn’t want to win bad enough for my taste.

On a related note, great showing by the San Diego fans this weekend.

In the Big Ten Championship, the entire country outside of Ohio was pulling for a Sparty victory.

Karma.

For some reason I can't explain, a picture of Urban Meyer eating postgame pizza surrounded by his family is sad.

SAD PIZZA RANKINGS: 

1. After being left at the altar 

2. Alone on Thanksgiving 

3. Post major sports loss


//


+ Week 15 Winners --

Bowling Green (+4.5) - Northern Illinois


Last Week: 1-0
Season: 84-50-3 (62.7%)

PS - My account took a hit riding all of Kevin's picks from the comment section.  0-3.  Brutal.  

When I checked my account after those three losses:

Double PS - I still think Kevin catches fire during the bowls.  Champions learn from their mistakes and conquer.  That's what Kevin is going to do in bowl season.  Conquer.

Thursday Picks

One pick this week and we're going MACtion.

Bowling Green (+4.5) - Northern Illinois

PS - Northern Illinois is playing without their husky mascot for the first time in nine years.  Can't expect that loss not to have an impact.  Without Diesel giving high fives on the sidelines this may be blowout city.

Week 15

I swear some Streamers broke out in cold sweats when I didn't release any picks locks on Monday.  Lots of variables in play this weekend.  Check back on Thursday.

Kind of unrelated but how big of a boss was Pete Carroll last night?

Wry smile?  Check.   Chomping on his gum?  Check.   Pimp walk?  Check.   Knowing you're the best?  Check mate.

Week 14 Recap

When I told my dad that the Mainstream had another glorious Saturday and is sitting on a 10-1 record for the past three weeks.

+ Week 14 Winners --

Kansas St (-16) - Kansas
Utah St (-20) - Wyoming
Iowa St (+9.5) - West Virginia
New Mexico (+35) - Boise St

+ Week 14 Losers -- 

Utah (-17) - Colorado


Last Week: 4-1
Season: 83-50-3 (62.4%)

Thursday Picks

Went to the Joe on Wednesday, Red Wings won 6-1.  Made my way to Ford Field on Thursday, Lions won 40-10.  Today my Brother Rice Warriors won their third straight high school championship 38-21.

Kind of on a hot streak.  Going to the Big House tomorrow for the best rivalry in college sports.  Will it continue?

//

No more picks this week.  Have a great weekend everyone.

Week 14

Have bet the Kansas - Kansas State game for the past 4 years.  Took the Wildcats every time.  4 wins.  I mean tell me which of these coaches you would trust in a rivalry game.  Bill Snyder the silver fox, or Chuck Weis, the guy who looks like this AFTER weight-loss surgery:

When I was looking through the lines and saw Kansas State was only favored by 16:

I know value when I see it and this pick is value city.

Lock it up and throw away the key.

+ Week 14 Plays --

Kansas St (-16) - Kansas
Utah (-17) - Colorado
Utah St (-20) - Wyoming
Iowa St (+9.5) - West Virginia
New Mexico (+35) - Boise St

Last Week: 5-0
Season: 79-49-3 (61.7%)

Week 13 Recap

Just another undefeated weekend for the Stream*.  If I’m being honest I don’t hate it.

Both picks on Thursday, Oklahoma State and North Carolina, covered by 42 points.  With Carolina winning 80-20 after three quarters, the coaches agreed to make the 4th quarter only ten minutes long.  Never seen such a thing.

+ Week 13 Winners --

Utah St (-6.5) - Colorado St
Vanderbilt (+3) - Tennessee
Mississippi St (-1.5) – Arkansas
Oklahoma St (+10) - Baylor
North Carolina (-18) - Old Dominion


Last Week: 5-0
Season: 79-49-3 (61.7%)

*I think you could argue that claiming back-to-back undefeated weeks is weak sauce since I only picked one game last Saturday, but that’s a different discussion for a different day.

Thursday Picks

59 college football games and one line has moved more than two points since Monday -- Utah St jumped from -6.5 to -10.

Oh wait is that the Stream's top play?

If I had a nickel for every time I moved lines at the poor sportsbooks I’d be retired on some tropical island right now.

//

Two more picks this week:

Oklahoma St (+10) - Baylor
North Carolina (-18) - Old Dominion

Week 13

How about the Georgia coaches all simultaneously acting like they got shot by a sniper when Auburn completed a desperation 73-yard TD pass in the last minute.

+ Week 13 Plays --

Utah St (-6.5) - Colorado St
Vanderbilt (+3) - Tennessee
Mississippi St (-1.5) - Arkansas


Last Week: 1-0
Season: 74-49-3 (60.2%)

Week 12 Recap

Michigan's passing offense versus Northwestern:

+ Week 12 Winners -- 

UTEP (-6) - Florida Int'l

Last Week: 1-0
Season: 74-49-3 (60.2%)

PS - You can’t improve perfection.

What Happens When The Streamers Are Looking For Their Saturday Picks And Only Get One Game From Conference USA No Less

Thursday Picks

Only one game on the 'Stream this week.*  Florida Int'l may be the worst team in college football.

UTEP (-6) - Florida Int'l

*Going to ride Kevin's picks from the comment section.  Dare anyone to fade him, he's scorching lava hot.  2-1 last week.

What it will feel like when Kevin goes 3-0:

Week 12

If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a thousand times.  Never go full T-Rex.

No picks today.  The lines are too high in the Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State games but at the same time those teams need style points.  Check back on Thursday.

Week 11 Recap

When my friend tells me the Thursday picks are 0-4 in the past three weeks:

2-0 heading into Saturday and then a collapse of epic proportions.  Now a whisker away from 60%.

PS - Pound for pound maybe the best GIF in the game.

//

+ Week 11 Winners -- 

Connecticut (+28) - Louisville
New Mexico St (+24.5) - Boston College
Stanford (+10.5) - Oregon

+ Week 11 Losers -- 

Utah St (-12.5) - UNLV
Wake Forest (+35) - Florida St
Tulsa (+17) - East Carolina


Last Week: 3-3
Season: 73-49-3 (59.8%)

Thursday Picks

When I realized the three big games this weekend all have 10+ point lines:

Tulsa (+17) - East Carolina


Lines are getting tight in November and just one game has shifted 2 points since Monday.  Utah State.  Only my most confident play.  Now -14.5.  Don’t say I’m a hero, all I did was beat the sportsbooks for another week.

Week 11

The top teams are dominating the spreads this year:
     Alabama 5-3
     Florida St 6-2
     Oregon 7-1
     Ohio St 7-2
     Stanford 4-4
     Baylor 6-1

So people are going to ask questions when they see me fading Oregon and Florida State this week.

Never felt more confident.


PS - Some people regret the college they went to or the job they didn’t take or the girl they married well not me, my regret is simple, I should have bet my entire savings account on Auburn (-8).  When KB, the Stream’s top commenter, gets behind a pick it’s always Lock City.

//

+ Week 11 Plays --

"Most Confident"

Utah St (-12.5) - UNLV

"Rest of the Picks"

Connecticut (+28) - Louisville
Wake Forest (+35) - Florida St
New Mexico St (+24.5) - Boston College
Stanford (+10.5) - Oregon


Last Week: 2-3
Season: 70-46-3 (60.3%)

Week 10 Recap

When a Streamer pointed out that all three underdogs lost:

So today’s big story is how the Stream is still over 60% on the season.  Well the real story to me is having all three underdogs lose against the spread.  Total shocker.  The lines were all over 30 points and the games were absolute blowouts.

PS - Not for nothing but when Ohio State scored a pick-six less than a minute into the game, I ripped up my Purdue ticket.  Urban Meyer is diabolical.

//

In last week’s line-movement predictions, all four lines moved the way I expected: 2, 1, 0.5, 0.5.


+ Week 10 Winners -- 

Georgia Tech (-9.5) – Pittsburgh
San Jose St (-3) - UNLV

+ Week 10 Losers -- 

Purdue (+30.5) - Ohio State
Eastern Michigan (+30.5) - Toledo
Southern Miss (+31) - Marshall

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 70-46-3 (60.3%)

Thursday Picks

When I start reaching for lines that I need to shift a half-point:

Eastern Michigan (+30.5) - Toledo
Southern Miss (+31) - Marshall


Also starting to think that Michigan not only covers in East Lansing but they win outright.  Show me how Sparty's offense scores more than 14 points and I’ll show you my unicorn farm.

PS - Three kids won Halloween this year

Week 10

Recent attempts at an undefeated weekend:

Following the recent hot streak, pageviews are rising.  For the new readers, I pick college football games every week.  These are my own picks with the help of a betting algorithm I created three years ago.  They are also free.  Last month I showed a tout website who picked football winners and lost money.  The Stream has been profitable every year.

Some people bet every single pick.  Others only bet the games they like, which I would advise.  Looking at the entire board of games, you have a 50% chance of picking winners.  Start with my slate and you've had a 61.3% chance to pick winners this year.

I select the games at 12pm on Mondays and Thursdays.  My advice, bet them early because the lines will move in my favor.  Just last week, here are the differences from when I made the picks on Monday to Saturday: 4.5, 4.5, 4, 3.5, 3.5, 3.5, 3, 0.

I post my picks in descending order of confidence.  Those at the top are my best selections.

//

+ Week 10 Plays --

"Most Confident"
Georgia Tech (-9.5) - Pittsburgh

"Rest of the Picks"

Purdue (+30.5) - Ohio State
San Jose St (-3) - UNLV

Last Week: 5-3-1

Season: 68-43-3 (61.3%)

//

Not picking these games but I think the following lines will increase: Syracuse (-3.5), North Carolina (-3), South Carolina (-13), Tulsa (-3).

Week 9 Recap

Watching Oregon scored 28 unanswered points and cover the spread:

How about those Ducks?  I mean the game was tied 14-14 with three minutes left in the 3rd quarter.  That offense has no regards for human life.  Shreds defenses at will.  Pretty sure the band was just playing the fight song on repeat in the 4th.

PS - San Jose State won by 7.  A fellow Streamer faded the pick because of line movement and bet Wyoming +7.5.

+ Week 9 Winners -- 

Kansas St (-10) - West Virginia

San Jose St (-6) - Wyoming

Texas-San Antonio (-4.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

San Diego St (+9.5) - Fresno St

Louisiana-Monroe (-12) - Georgia St

+ Week 9 Losers -- 

Hawaii (+5.5) - Colorado St

Illinois (+11.5) - Michigan St

UCLA (+23.5) – Oregon

+ Push --
Georgia Tech (-10) - Virginia


Last Week: 5-3-1
Season: 68-43-3 (61.3%)

Thursday Picks

Andy Reid -- A guy that can’t manage timeouts, breathes exclusively out of his mouth and now will forever make me think of the Kool-Aid man.


One thursday play:

UCLA (+23.5) – Oregon

//

Kansas St (-10) - Outside of garbage time points at Baylor, West Virginia has had a difficult time scoring on the road.  On an unrelated-but-sort-of-related note, I don’t trust Dana Holgorsen.  I mean look at him.  Wouldn’t be surprised if the guy had an abandoned well and some skin suits in his basement.

Illinois (+11.5) – One of my friends was saying that Michigan State could beat any team in the country because of their defense.  Felt like Mel Kiper trying to convince me that a linebacker from Miami with drug problems is worth the gamble because he has explosive speed and a great vertical.  Sparty’s offense, drug problems, can’t win with ‘em.

Georgia Tech (-10) - The Wahoos couldn’t stop Duke last week.  Expect Georgia Tech’s rushing attack to go beast mode.



h/t Kevin for the new logo

Week 9

When the Streamers saw my 12-3 record over the last two weeks:

+ Week 9 Plays --

"Most Confident 5"

Kansas St (-10) - West Virginia
San Jose St (-6) - Wyoming
Texas-San Antonio (-4.5) - Alabama-Birmingham
Hawaii (+5.5) - Colorado St
Illinois (+11.5) - Michigan St

"Rest of the Picks"
Georgia Tech (-10) - Virginia
San Diego St (+9.5) - Fresno St
Louisiana-Monroe (-12) - Georgia St


Last Week: 4-1
Season: 63-40-2 (61.2%)

Week 8 Recap

+ Week 8 Winners -- 

Colorado (-20.5) - Charleston Southern

Purdue (+28) - Michigan St

Missouri (+3) - Florida

Washington St (+39) - Oregon

+ Week 8 Losers -- 

Iowa St (+33.5) - Baylor

Last Week: 4-1
Season: 63-40-2 (61.2%)

Bet lunch with a Streamer on the Florida State - Clemson game.  Obviously I took the Noles.  Adrian, should we go to Ruth's Chris today or tomorrow?

Colorado - Lock City

Bet Colorado on Thursday at -20.5.  Now the line is up to -28.

When the Streamers were running to the sportsbooks to lay Colorado:

Thursday Picks

Fading Baylor and Oregon:

+ Week 8 Plays --

"Most Confident"

Colorado (-20.5) - Charleston Southern

"Rest of the Picks"
Purdue (+28) - Michigan St

Missouri (+3) - Florida

Iowa St (+33.5) - Baylor

Washington St (+39) - Oregon

Last Week: 8-2

Season: 59-39-2 (60.2%)

PS - I don't want #78 to transfer to Michigan and have immediate eligibility - I need it.

Week 8

Looking at the Week 8 schedule:

I'm not making any picks today. Sneaky matchups. On the fence with a few games. Check back on Thursday.

Week 7 Recap

Betting underdogs when the lines are inflated is like taking BP with a corked bat.  And on Saturday we were hitting the ball on the moon.

+ Week 7 Winners -- 

Kansas St (+19) - Baylor
Texas (+14) - Oklahoma
Hawaii (+10) – UNLV

San Jose St (+4) - Colorado St
Florida Atlantic (+12.5) - Marshall
Syracuse (+5.5) - North Carolina St
Arizona St (-25) - Colorado 

Army (-7.5) - Eastern Michigan

+ Week 7 Losers -- 

Utah St (+7) - Boise St
Washington (+14) - Oregon

Last Week: 8-2
Season: 59-39-2 (60.2%)

Thursday Picks

When my friends ask me how I missed the Chuckie Keeton injury:

From Monday's picks, six lines moved in my direction, two remained the same, and one line went against me (Syracuse is now +7).  No respect for the Orange?

Only one new pick for today.


Army (-7.5) - Eastern Michigan


Like I always say when betting against Eastern Michigan, it's not called gambling when you don't lose.

PS - Although my NFL track record is dicey and by that I mean that I've never even sniffed a modicum of success, I'm extremely confident about two games this weekend.  Jacksonville +27.  New York Jets -2.5.  Easy covers. 

Week 7 Notes

Nine picks.  Eight are big contrarian plays going against the public.  The one pick that the public agrees with is Arizona State, also the only favorite.


Utah St (+7) – Would have been real bad if I saw this line, recognized value immediately, whaled on the game with a 5-unit bet, and then realized Chuckie Keeton (Utah St QB) is out for the season.  Except that’s 100% what happened.  Now I know how the Dolphins mascot feels.  Excitement to disappointment in seconds.

Kansas St (+19) – On the offshore sites, the line opened at +10.5 and got slaughtered.  Instantly rose to +17, then as high as +20.  Getting +19 when the bookmakers originally thought +10.5 is value, straight up.

Texas (+14) – Lots of people are down on Texas.  Think Mack is going to get fired.   It’s like that old quote from Gladiator.  Make them think you’re strong when you’re weak and weak when you are strong.  If Bevo is at the Cotton Bowl, Texas might win outright.

Week 7

There's having faith in a few underdogs and then there's having faith that every underdog is a lock.  This is the latter.

When a friend told me that he liked Boise this weekend:

+ Week 7 Plays --

"Most Confident 4"

Utah St (+7) - Boise St
Kansas St (+19) - Baylor
Texas (+14) - Oklahoma
Hawaii (+10) - UNLV

"Rest of the Picks"
San Jose St (+4) - Colorado St
Florida Atlantic (+12.5) - Marshall
Syracuse (+5.5) - North Carolina St
Arizona St (-25) - Colorado
Washington (+14) - Oregon


Last Week: 2-4
Season: 51-37-2 (58.0%)

Week 6 Recap

When I'm at the bar, see my picks went 2-0 in the early games, witness Georgia Tech beating Miami 17-7, and need to celebrate:

When every remaining pick turns into a dud and my friends think it's hilarious:

+ Week 6 Winners -- 

SMU (+7) - Rutgers 

Temple (+34) - Louisville 

+ Week 6 Losers -- 

Syracuse (+13) - Clemson
Colorado (+38) - Oregon 

Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Miami FL
Louisiana-Monroe (+7.5) - Western Kentucky

Last Week: 2-4
Season: 51-37-2 (58.0%)

Favorite Bet On The Board Today

The team total for Georgia State, a 55.5 point underdog against Alabama, is 2.5.

Need it.  Can I get one field goal in Tuscaloosa today.

What are the odds of this winning?  Infinity

Is The Mainstream The Only Website In The World That Picks Winners?

Three things happened at lunch today...

1. Since it's Friday I went with the double order.  Burrito from Chipotle and a big Wreck from Potbelly.  No big deal.

2. Found out traffic on the Mainstream has increased in a big way.  In September, 3,000 pageviews.  Kinda big deal.
3. I had an idea about adding certain statistics to improve my algorithm.  While hunting for data, I came across some website called Team Rankings.  Never seen it before.  Have the Mainstreamers?  Well guess what, I quickly learned they are my competition.  New rival #1.

Team Rankings is a sports website with betting advice.  They charge $49 per month to subscribe to their picks.  Compared to the free picks that I provide on the Mainstream, how do we compare?

2013

Team Rankings:  50.7%

Mainstream:  59.8%

2012

Team Rankings:  50.9%

Mainstream:  53.3% 

2011

Team Rankings:  49.5%

Mainstream:  63.4% 

Bloodbath City!

So naturally I have to assume I'm doing this all wrong.  How is Team Rankings raking in cash with these picks?  I need to hire a business team right?  Guys to handle the business side, marketing, the works.  Guys who wake up in the morning and redefine the meaning of "work ethic".

Prosperous times ahead for the Mainstream indeed.  

Thursday Picks

Everyone loves underdogs.  Everyone loves cash.  Let's bet two more.  Definition of win-win.


Georgia Tech (+5.5) - Miami FL
Louisiana-Monroe (+7.5) - Western Kentucky

All six picks are big-time contrarian plays.  The regular public bettors are betting on every team I'm betting against.  How confident am I this week?  Oh I don't know, how about realizing that the sharps agree with every one of my picks.  NBD.  Time to get paid.

 

PS - Don't like betting six underdogs?