Live Chat: SEC Championship

Humor aficionado @mikehoner and I will host a Live Chat for tomorrow's SEC Championship. 4pm ET. Do it.

Big Moves This Week

How does the algorithm find value before the lines move every week?

Northern Illinois: -5 to -7.5

Arkansas State: -9.5 to -10.5

Texas: +12 to +10.5

No new recommended plays.

When The College Football Season Is Over And I Watch The NBA

Underdogs FTW

There are 15 games on Saturday and the money has already flowed into 14 favorites.

The only underdog receiving over 50% of the action is Georgia (+8) vs Alabama.  I might just go play every underdog, not ask questions, and then collect my winnings.

//

A friend sent me this... I don’t care how old you are. I don’t care what level of football we’re talking about. I don’t even care what sport we’re talking about. You simply can’t get trucked worse than that in any level of life. Just absolute destroyed. Like that’s the type of play that sends you from playing free safety to the chess club in the blink of an eye.

Week 14

When it's Saturday and I've only bet on four games:

// Both Northern Illinois (9-2-1) and Kent St (10-2) are ATS machines. #MACtion

// Texas is starting Case McCoy at QB.  The spread has been building since the open yesterday. 

+ Week 14 Plays -- 

South Florida (+7) - Pittsburgh

Northern Illinois (-5) - Kent St

Arkansas St (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Texas (+12) - Kansas St

// 

Last Week: 5-5-3

Season: 100-89-5 (52.9%)

Week 13 Recap

Rivalry Week: College football at its finest.

// 5-2 in the Top 7 picks.  Should have been 6-1.  Why Lane Kiffin didn’t kick the field goal when he was down two scores makes no sense. 

// Southern Miss is one of the few teams that the model consistently recommends.  Thankfully their season is over.  0-12 (3-9 ATS). 

// The three pushes were all brutal. 

Up 5 in the 4^th, Troy threw a pick-6 and then gave up the two-point conversion. 

Florida Int’l lost by 6 in overtime.  No field goal?

Wisco’s kicker missed a chip shot in overtime.

+ Week 13 Winners – 

Colorado St (-2.5) - New Mexico

Maryland (+24.5) - North Carolina

Connecticut (+13) - Louisville

Idaho (+39.5) - Utah St

Arizona St (+3) - Arizona

+ Week 13 Losers -- 

Southern Miss (+5) - Memphis

Southern Cal (+6) - Notre Dame

Illinois (+19) - Northwestern

Iowa St (+1) - West Virginia

South Florida (+13.5) - Cincinnati

+ Pushes -- 

Troy (+3) - Middle Tennessee St

Florida Int'l (+6) - Louisiana-Monroe

Wisconsin (+3) - Penn State

// 

Last Week: 5-5-3

Season: 100-89-5 (52.9%)

Gut Plays: 2-1 last week.  10-8 on the year (55.6%).

Michigan 21. Ohio 26.

1. The Buckeyes have the worst and most insufferable fans in the country.  But everyone already knows that. When I responded to all of their chants and middle fingers by asking where I could get some free tattoos --- that shut them up. Quickly.

2. Nice to see Jim Tressel get a standing ovation between quarters.  Institutional Chaos FTW!

3. Notre Dame at USC in a few minutes.  ND by a field goal.

Tomorrow's Big Game

Welcome to Ohio

The moment I crossed the border, I needed a shower.

Michigan +4.

Does This Look Like A Family From The State of Ohio?

Week 13 Gut Plays

My friends' reactions when I post 3 plays instead of 1:

+ Gut Plays -- 
Florida - Florida State (+8)
Kent State - Ohio (-9.5)
Tulsa – SMU (-5)

Week 13

// Rivalry Week

// Underdog city. In the 13 games, we are rolling with 12 dogs.  If people don't like betting against this many favorites:

// The ND-USC line has not been released on 5Dimes. On an offshore site, I saw ND -6.

+ Week 13 Plays -- 

Colorado St (-2.5) - New Mexico

Maryland (+24.5) - North Carolina

Connecticut (+13) - Louisville

Southern Miss (+5) - Memphis

Southern Cal (+6) - Notre Dame

Idaho (+39.5) - Utah St

Arizona St (+3) - Arizona

Illinois (+19) - Northwestern

Iowa St (+1) - West Virginia

Troy (+3) - Middle Tennessee St

South Florida (+13.5) - Cincinnati

Florida Int'l (+6) - Louisiana-Monroe

Wisconsin (+3) - Penn State

// 

Last Week: 8-6-1

Season: 95-84-2 (53.1%)

Notre Dame: Return to Glory

Yesterday's games add another feather to college football's cap.  Just the best sport there is all day every day.  Anyway two things caught my eye.

1. Notre Dame will deservedly be #1 in the polls.  Despite their Pitt, BC, Wake mid-season siesta, their schedule strength is still better than teams like Kansas State, Oregon, and most teams outside the SEC.  What's funny is that Domers were probably running around with their pants off after witnessing the perfect day.  Kansas State lost, Oregon lost, Barkley got hurt.  In hindsight, while they were going nuts as Baylor was crushing the Wildcasts in Waco, a Kansas State win would have been much better for ND fans.  They wouldn't be double digit underdogs against Bill Snyder's crew.

2. In 2011, Michigan had a weird schedule en route to an 11-2 record.  They faced more bowl-eligible teams than any other program in the country but never had a matchup with a Top 10 team.  2012 is a much different story.  If Michigan loses in Columbus next weekend, they will likely have faced the AP #1 team (ND), the #2 team (Bama), the #3 team (Ohio St), and a Top 10 Nebraska team, all away from Ann Arbor.  And three of them at night. Toughest schedule in the country.

//

Notre Dame fans on Sunday morning:

Week 12 Recap

An interesting weekend with Stanford coming up big, a few close wins, and a press conference that leads to only one conclusion: Les Miles is on bath salts.

After a lot of close losses this year, we were due for some positive variance and we finally saw it this weekend.  Now it’s time to stay above 53% and finish the year strong.

//

There is a sharp bettor I know who plays every sport and his results speak to how difficult and crazy this college football season has been.  In the past year, he has made a profit of +156 units.  Here is his breakdown by sport:

NHL +64

NCAAB +48

MLB +41

NFL +33

NBA +22

NCAAF -52

//

+ Week 12 Winners – 

Colorado St (+28.5) - Boise St

Stanford (+21.5) - Oregon

South Alabama (+10) - Middle Tennessee St

Maryland (+31) - Florida St

Notre Dame (-23.5) - Wake Forest

Hawai`i (+23.5) - Air Force

Ball St (-4) - Ohio U.

Boston College (+10) - Virginia Tech

+ Week 12 Losers – 

Arkansas (+7) - Mississippi St

Utah (-1) - Arizona

Oklahoma (-10.5) - West Virginia

Western Michigan (-12.5) - Eastern Michigan

Nevada (-10) - New Mexico

Brigham Young (-3) - San Jose St

+ Push --

Idaho (+7) - Texas-San Antonio

//

Last Week: 8-6-1

Season: 95-84-2 (53.1%)

Week 12

// Trying to appear confident after the last two weeks.

// These lines are taken from 5Dimes as always.  While traveling for work, I ran the algorithm on Monday at 12pm ET and Thursday at 12pm ET.  The lines below are from those dates/times.

// Last week, I realized that I was pulling for a lot of teams that were playing their backup QB.  I don’t have any inputs or relationships to account for the impact of a backup quarterback.  When a backup takes over the #1 spot on the depth chart, the lines in Vegas adjust but my algorithm doesn’t factor the effect of this.  When a team is playing its backup QB, I have highlighted the game in blue. 

// I’m also skeptical to bet against any of the top 3 teams right now (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame).  My model can’t account for these teams putting up style points as they try to prove that they belong in the top 2.

+ Week 12 Plays -- 

Idaho (+7) - Texas-San Antonio

Colorado St (+28.5) - Boise St

Stanford (+21.5) - Oregon

Arkansas (+7) - Mississippi St

Utah (-1) - Arizona

South Alabama (+10) - Middle Tennessee St

Maryland (+31) - Florida St

Oklahoma (-10.5) - West Virginia

Western Michigan (-12.5) - Eastern Michigan

Notre Dame (-23.5) - Wake Forest

Hawai`i (+23.5) - Air Force

Nevada (-10) - New Mexico

Brigham Young (-3) - San Jose St

Ball St (-4) - Ohio U.

Boston College (+10) - Virginia Tech

// 

+ Gut Plays -- 
Air Force – Hawaii (-21.5). This is the current Friday afternoon line on 5Dimes.  This may go against the model but I’m confident in this pick for three reasons.

1. My friend at work has essentially made this his lock of the year. I’m riding it.

2. Hawaii reeks.

3. When I watch Hawaii attempt to play football:

Week 11 Recap

+ Week 11 Winners – 

Oklahoma St (-7.5) - West Virginia

Wyoming (pick) - New Mexico

Colorado St (+2.5) - UNLV

Nebraska (-7) - Penn State

North Carolina St (-7.5) - Wake Forest

+ Week 11 Losers -- 

Maryland (+31) - Clemson

California (+27.5) - Oregon

Hawai`i (+29.5) - Boise St

Miami OH (+6.5) - Kent St

Michigan (-11) - Northwestern

Temple (+11) - Cincinnati

New Mexico St (+22.5) - San Jose St

Auburn (+15) - Georgia

Southern Miss (+15) - SMU

Last Week: 5-9 
Season: 87-78-1 (52.7%)

Week 12 Plays

A lot of traveling this week for work.  All picks will be posted on Thursday.

//

When I deprive my friends of CFB plays until Thursday, they typically think:

Big Weekend Coming

If the model goes 10-4:

If the model goes 4-10:

If the model goes 0-12:

More Week 11 Plays

With a midweek line shift, the model found value on the winless and terrible Southern Miss Golden Eagles.

+ Week 11 Plays -- 
North Carolina St (-7.5) - Wake Forest
Southern Miss (+15) - SMU

Regardless of the results, the model continues to find value every week based on line movements.  Have already seen 2+ point shifts in the model's favor for Oklahoma State, Temple, Wyoming, and New Mexico State.  Need the +EV to finally pay off this Saturday.

Week 11 Gut Play

I really thought Sparty was going to take down Nebraska last week.  Then these shenanigans started:

+ Gut Play --
Marshall (-2.5) - UAB

Election Day

As a rule I don't like to discuss politics in public.  I've learned that those conversations can get heated real quick.  But my hands are tied.  The banner on the website says we cover politics and well it's Election Day so we are going to cover politics.  In lieu of stating my own position, I'm just going to post an email from a friend.  To quote Don King... Only in America.

//

Democrats discount Mitt because he’s a “bozo”, the beer thing, the dog thing, none of that shit should matter. Here is the bottom line: the social implications of electing a Republican or a Democrat are immensely overblown. The American culture, from its very strict and ultra conservative Puritanical beginnings has, since our nation’s inception, been trending towards a liberal culture and nothing is going to stop that. Sure, electing certain officials can speed up or, yes, slow down the process but, eventually, we move towards progressive agendas. Gay marriage, abortion, women’s rights, racial and religious tolerance is going to happen eventually. The proliferation of information and education deems it as inevitable.

What we need right now, I would say, is someone who knows how to make and manage money. The country’s economy is in the shitter and yeah, Romney may be a stiff square who doesn't booze and is a Mormon but the man knows how to make the green flow and that, more than anything is what we need. He’s not going to roll back gay marriage, he’s not going to make interracial couples illegal, he’s going to try and make money which is what we need. It should be up to the states, in my opinion, to determine such social-centric policies and, yes, when the time comes the federal government may need to give those bible thumping, ultra religious states the push into the 21st century but that should not determine who you vote for because, as I said, it’s going to get there eventually.

I mean, what I would like to see neither party is going to offer, graduated flat taxes, federal term limits for Congress, the closing of military bases across the globe, the establishment of a firm border with Mexico using said military assets being reallocated, the closing of federal and state tax loopholes, the legalization and taxing of marijuana and, for that matter all drugs. What we need is a multi-party system so that you don’t sign your allegiance away to parties that are, by and large, driven by radicals on both sides of the aisle. As such, you have to use your conscious to decide the lesser between two evils and, though not ideal, it’s the process we currently have.

So yeah, in the end I will vote Republican and yes, empower conservative tea party assholes but right now I think we need a firm economic hand and if you want to make the argument that Obama is better at that than Romney go right ahead. You are falling into the “Who’d I rather hang out with” decision process which is, quite frankly, ridiculous.

Week 11

When I see that the model finds value on Maryland again:

+ Week 11 Plays -- 
Maryland (+31.5) - Clemson
Oklahoma St (-7.5) - West Virginia
California (+28) - Oregon
Hawai`i (+29.5) - Boise St
Miami OH (+6.5) - Kent St
Michigan (-11) - Northwestern
Wyoming (pick) - New Mexico
Colorado St (+2.5) - UNLV
Temple (+11) - Cincinnati
New Mexico St (+22.5) - San Jose St
Auburn (+15.5) - Georgia
Nebraska (-7) - Penn State

I am avoiding Maryland. There is no way to implement a “5th string QB who was playing linebacker two weeks ago” variable into the algorithm.

//

Last Week: 4-12
Season: 82-69-1 (54.3%)

Week 10 Recap

4-12!!!

+ Week 10 Winners -- 

Akron (+21.5) - Kent St

TCU (+7) - West Virginia

Texas A&M (-6.5) - Mississippi St

East Carolina (+4) - Houston

+ Week 10 Losers -- 

Hawai`i (+34) - Fresno St

Boston College (+4) - Wake Forest

Notre Dame (-16.5) - Pittsburgh

Eastern Michigan (+17.5) - Ohio U.

Colorado St (+10) - Wyoming

Southern Miss (-3) - Alabama-Birmingham

Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Arkansas (-6) - Tulsa

Navy (-14) - Florida Atlantic

Maryland (+9) - Georgia Tech

Temple (+16.5) - Louisville

Idaho (+20) - San Jose St

A bloodbath.  No other way to describe it.  However it’s no coincidence that the model’s worst day in two years coincides with the beating Vegas took.  Sportsbooks got hammered on both Saturday and Sunday.

“This was the perfect storm that has been brewing for the entire season,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It’s a disaster.”

Sporting News: Tough Weekend

So the sportsbooks, which make money in the long run, were hammered.  Big line shifts were still in the model’s favor.  And we saw tough beats like Hawaii (1 point), Arkansas (2 points), and Southern Miss collapsing after a 16-0 halftime lead.

The fight back to 55% begins today.

Last Week: 4-12 
Season: 82-69-1 (54.3%)

On a positive note, hitting the under on Bama-LSU was huge.

What Just Happened?

Did the model just collapse?  As far as I can tell, this sums up today's performance:

55%?

The model is hitting 58% this year, down from 63% last year.  Why is this still a success?

This shows what different win percentages yield for $1,000 wagers each with -110 vig. For example, a 55% win rate makes $55,000.

If it was easy to win at a 55% rate, then many people would be doing it and hurting the sportsbooks. Even with all the square bettors losing their money, sooner or later, the 55% winners would bankrupt the sportsbooks. The mere existence of -110 lines shows that few people can pick at a 55% rate.

The Mainstream is one of the few.

More Week 10 Plays

+ Week 10 Plays -- 
Maryland (+9) - Georgia Tech
Temple (+16.5) - Louisville
East Carolina (+4) - Houston
Idaho (+20) - San Jose St

// Maryland is playing their 5th string QB, also a freshman linebacker. He played quarterback in high school. Buyer beware.

// Two possible opportunities to middle this week.  To create enough +EV, I'll usually only hedge when the line crosses the 3&7 or the 7&10.  Arkansas opened -6; now -9.  Colorado St opened +10; now +7.5. Watching both.