Mario, Luigi and Scooby Doo Just Chillin At the Bulls Game

Good seats. Mario must know people.

Week 10 Gut Play: A Total

+ Gut Plays -- 
Alabama – LSU.  Under 42.

// Potential BCS Championship lines in Vegas: Alabama would be a 6-pt fav over Oregon, a 10-pt fav over K-State and a 13-pt fav over ND.

Week 10

Gronk describing the celebration: “The little Nutcracker dude, guarding the house, the palace.”

The timing, the situation, the venue.  All working together to create the perfect spike.  And his commitment to the dance is unparalleled.   It’s like he became that Little Nutcracker Dude.

+ Week 10 Plays -- 

Hawai`i (+34) - Fresno St

Akron (+21.5) - Kent St

Boston College (+4) - Wake Forest

TCU (+7) - West Virginia

Notre Dame (-16.5) - Pittsburgh

Texas A&M (-6.5) - Mississippi St

Eastern Michigan (+17.5) - Ohio U.

Colorado St (+10) - Wyoming

Southern Miss (-3) - Alabama-Birmingham

Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Arkansas (-6) - Tulsa

Navy (-14) - Florida Atlantic

// 

Last Week: 6-1 
Season: 78-57-1 (57.8%)

Week 9 Recap

6-1. Some are calling me a hero today... That's not for me to decide. History will tell the tale. 

+ Week 9 Winners – 

Brigham Young (+2) - Georgia Tech

Ohio State (+2.5) - Penn State

Miami OH (+7.5) - Ohio U.

Utah St (-21) - Texas-San Antonio

Arkansas St (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette

New Mexico St (+30.5) - Louisiana Tech

+ Week 9 Losers -- 

South Florida (-2.5) - Syracuse

// Wins of 27, 26, 16.5, 14.5, 10.5, 10.  A Syracuse touchdown with 3 seconds left derailed any dreams of the undefeated week.

Last Week: 6-1 
Season: 78-57-1 (57.8%)

More Week 9 Plays

+ Week 9 Plays -- 
New Mexico St (+30.5) - Louisiana Tech
South Florida (-2.5) - Syracuse

Something to remember about the algorithm --- It finds correlations and exploits value that the human eye does not see.  It's also difficult to factor in the importance of unique variables, like injuries.  If Braxton Miller is fresh off his concussion and may play one quarter against Penn State, or the entire game, how should that be factored into the analysis?  Is it worth 1 point?   3 points?   The difference may create a huge betting opportunity.  Another example...

Nice To See The Lions Put Up A Fight Last Night

Week 9

When I spoonfeed winners on the 'Stream:

+ Week 9 Plays -- 

Brigham Young (+2) - Georgia Tech

Ohio State (+2.5) - Penn State

Miami OH (+7.5) - Ohio U.

Utah St (-21) - Texas-San Antonio

Arkansas St (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette

Last Week: 9-8 
Season: 72-56-1 (56.3%)

// 

+ Gut Plays -- 
Louisiana Tech (-29.5) – New Mexico St

Week 8 Recap

When I see that the model is still hitting over 55%:

Props to Hugh for the gif

+ Week 8 Winners –
Kentucky (+28) - Georgia
Kansas St (+3) - West Virginia
North Texas (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette
San Jose St (-13.5) - Texas-San Antonio
SMU (+6) - Houston
South Florida (+7) - Louisville
Miami FL (+21) - Florida St
Purdue (+18.5) - Ohio State
Auburn (+7) - Vanderbilt

+ Week 8 Losers –
Utah (+10.5) - Oregon St
Boston College (+14.5) - Georgia Tech
Michigan (-10) - Michigan St
Washington (+7.5) - Arizona
Nebraska (-4) - Northwestern
Temple (+6) - Rutgers
Colorado (+41) - Southern Cal
Air Force (-11) - New Mexico

// 6 of the 8 losses were by one score. Wins of 44, 36, 23, 14.5, 11.5, 11… With a little positive variance, the model is going to explode.

// Gut Plays are undefeated the last 3 weeks.

Last Week: 9-8
Season: 72-56-1 (56.3%)

More Week 8 Plays

Game 4. Do this Tigers.

+ Week 8 Plays -- 

Miami FL (+21) - Florida St

Purdue (+18.5) - Ohio State

Air Force (-11) - New Mexico

Auburn (+7) - Vanderbilt

Miami, Air Force, and Auburn didn’t have lines on Monday.  Purdue opened +17; now add’l value at +18.5.

Line Moves

From Monday, these lines have moved in the model’s direction and are no longer recommended plays:

Nebraska (-4). Now -7.

SMU (+6). Now +4.

Temple (+6). Now +5.

South Florida (+7). Now +6.5.

Colorado (+41). Now +40.5.

Week 8

When you stray from the model and ride someone else's picks for a week:

+ Week 8 Plays --
Kentucky (+28) - Georgia
Utah (+10.5) - Oregon St
Boston College (+14.5) - Georgia Tech
Kansas St (+3) - West Virginia
North Texas (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette
Michigan (-10) - Michigan St
Washington (+7.5) - Arizona
San Jose St (-13.5) - Texas-San Antonio
Nebraska (-4) - Northwestern
Temple (+6) - Rutgers
SMU (+6) - Houston
South Florida (+7) - Louisville
Colorado (+41) - Southern Cal 

For the games in blue, there is barely enough value for the model to recommend a bet. Even a half-point discrepancy in the price would remove these bets from the list.  This is not surprising as we continue to know more about each team (more available data) and the margins get tighter.  The same thing happened in 2011.

Last Week: 10-9
Season: 63-48-1 (56.8%)

//

+ Gut Plays -- 
Ball St (-3) - Central Michigan. CMU is 2-17 in their last 19 games ATS. Couldn’t cover a pillow.

Week 7 Recap

When the model gets back to a +.500 week:

+ Week 7 Winners -- 

Texas Tech (+4.5) - West Virginia

TCU (+7.5) - Baylor

Utah St (+3.5) - San Jose St

Rice (-3) - Texas-San Antonio

Utah (+7.5) - UCLA

Navy (+2.5) - Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan (+16.5) – Toledo

Akron (+20.5) - Ohio U.

Alabama (-21) – Missouri

Ball St. (-3) – Western Michigan

+ Week 7 Losers --

Texas A&M (-7.5) - Louisiana Tech

Hawai`i (+3.5) - New Mexico

Boston College (+28.5) - Florida St

Colorado St (+20.5) - San Diego St

Brigham Young (-2.5) - Oregon St

Missouri (+21.5) - Alabama

Army (+1.5) - Kent St

Western Michigan (+3) - Ball St

Florida Int'l (+3) - Middle Tennessee St

// Kent St is now 5-1 against the spread this year.  Killing it.

// The Texas A&M loss was flatout diabolical. Up 27-0.  Up 15 with two minutes to go. Onside kicks everywhere. Never seen such thing.

// Betting back against Missouri and WMU were two negative scalps.  After each team announced their QB was out, both hedges were positive-EV plays.

Last Week: 10-9 
Season: 63-48-1 (56.8%)

Two Golden Retriever Brothers Trapped In Woods For 2 Weeks… One Escapes, Returns Home And Leads Everybody To His Brother

Re-blog (These are really the two dogs. Obviously that’s Baxter on the left and Bailey on the right)

A story straight out of a Disney movie. Two golden retrievers were lost in the woods, and trapped for two weeks before one of the dogs broke free and led others back to his brother. “I had pretty much given up hope that they were going to come home,” Penny said. “Baxter kind of led me off the side through the woods. I had twigs in my eyes and leaves in my hair,” Penny says. Baxter kept pulling Penny down the path until finally they came upon Bailey with his leash all wrapped up around some bushes.“ I could hardly get him untied because he was jumping on me and jumping on Baxter because he was so happy to see us.” Penny thinks her goldens spent most of the two weeks trapped together, until Baxter broke free. Then she believes he kept going back to check on Bailey. 

First of all Bailey and Baxter have to be the most Golden Retriever names of all time. Just drips Golden Retriever. And seriously how awesome are Goldens? Like everybody knows they are the best dogs on the planet. They know they are the best dogs on the planet. But still they never act like they are better than you. Like if I was a Golden I’d be the smuggest cockiest bro on the planet. But I guess that’s why I’d never be a Golden. They don’t let their success get to their heads. Just one of the guys. One for all and all for one. Hell Baxter probably would have been home a week ago, but it took 7 days for Bailey to convince him it was okay to leave him alone in the woods while he got help. And yes if this was a cat stuck with his brother he’d 100% eat him before returning home. Not because he needed to survive. Just because cats hate company and being social.

More Week 7 Plays

If the model loses for the 3rd straight week, I might find myself here:

+ Week 7 Plays -- 

Florida Int'l (+3) - Middle Tennessee St

Eastern Michigan (+16.5) – Toledo

Akron (+20.5) - Ohio U.

Update: 
Carder, the Western Michigan QB, won't play Saturday.  The model no longer has value on Western Mich.
Franklin, the Missouri QB, won't play Saturday.  The model no longer has value on Mizzou.  
The model will bet against both teams and take risk off the board.

Week 7

When asked to describe the model's performance last week:

+ Week 7 Plays -- 

Texas A&M (-7.5) - Louisiana Tech

Hawai`i (+3.5) - New Mexico

Texas Tech (+4.5) - West Virginia

Boston College (+28.5) - Florida St

TCU (+7.5) - Baylor

Utah St (+3.5) - San Jose St

Rice (-3) - Texas-San Antonio

Utah (+7.5) - UCLA

Navy (+2.5) - Central Michigan

Colorado St (+20.5) - San Diego St

Brigham Young (-2.5) - Oregon St

Missouri (+21.5) - Alabama

Army (+1.5) - Kent St

Western Michigan (+3) - Ball St

Last Week: 6-9 
Season: 53-39-1 (57.6%)

// 

+ Gut Plays -- 
Kent St (-1.5). Going against the model for the first time. Golden Flashes are no joke.

Week 6 Recap

+ Week 6 Winners --

Maryland (-4) - Wake Forest

Louisiana-Monroe (-3) - Middle Tennessee St

Utah (+13.5) - Southern Cal

Western Michigan (-16) - Massachusetts

Syracuse (+3) - Pittsburgh

North Carolina St (+17) - Florida St

+ Week 6 Losers --

Kentucky (+10.5) - Mississippi St

Hawai`i (+22.5) - San Diego St

Stanford (-9.5) - Arizona

Eastern Michigan (+3.5) - Kent St

Connecticut (+9.5) - Rutgers

Texas (-7) - West Virginia

Miami OH (+21) - Cincinnati

Colorado St (+17.5) - Fresno St

Tulane (+27.5) - Louisiana-Lafayette

Tulane jumped up to +30.5 before the game which would have been a victory for the model.  Unfortunately the 5Dimes line on Thursday was 27.5 and Tulane lost by 28.

I actually bet this game on a different website at 28 and pushed.

Kentucky and Colorado St also fell on the wrong side, missing covers by 2.5 and 3.5.

// 

Last Week: 6-9 
Season: 53-39-1 (57.6%)

Rare Footage

Guts, determination, heart.  It was all on the line today as I dominated the Chicago marathon. Unfortunately someone caught me on film near the finish line.

More Week 6 Plays

When friends ask me if I've found more value after midweek line moves:

+ Week 6 Plays -- 

North Carolina St (+17) - Florida St
Colorado St (+17.5) - Fresno St

Tulane (+27.5) - Louisiana-Lafayette

//

Line Moves
Utah (+14) and Texas (-6.5) are showing half-point shifts and are nestled around key numbers.
Syracuse, originally offered at +3, is now -1.5.

In other games...

Does this look like the face of a TCU quarterback who got busted for a DUI and caused the Horned Frogs line to drop from -12 to -7.5?

MVP

To all the Mike Trout supporters:

Huh?

What could possibly go wrong in a person's life that he would answer "Dairy Queen"?

Week 6

When I consider adding more statistics to improve the model:

+ Week 6 Plays -- 
Maryland (-4) - Wake Forest

Louisiana-Monroe (-3) - Middle Tennessee St

Kentucky (+10.5) - Mississippi St

Hawai`i (+22.5) - San Diego St

Utah (+13.5) - Southern Cal

Western Michigan (-16) - Massachusetts

Stanford (-9.5) - Arizona

Eastern Michigan (+3.5) - Kent St

Connecticut (+9.5) - Rutgers

Syracuse (+3) - Pittsburgh

Texas (-7) - West Virginia

Miami OH (+21) - Cincinnati

Last Week: 9-10 
Season: 47-30-1 (61.0%)

// 

+ Gut Plays -- 
Kansas St (-24) – Kansas.  59-7 in 2010 and 59-21 in 2011.

Run on Monday afternoon.  Posted Tuesday.

Week 5 Recap

How I need to be consoled after the model's first losing weekend in 2012:

+ Week 5 Winners – 

Duke (+3) - Wake Forest

Utah St (-17.5) - UNLV

Southern Miss (+10.5) - Louisville

Arizona St (+2.5) - California

Wisconsin (+13.5) - Nebraska

Houston (-4.5) - Rice

Massachusetts (+24.5) - Ohio U.

South Florida (+17.5) - Florida St

Fresno St (-7) - San Diego St

+ Week 5 Losers – 

Boston College (+9.5) - Clemson

Oklahoma St (+2.5) - Texas

Connecticut (-18) - Buffalo

Arkansas St (+2.5) - Western Kentucky

Purdue (-15.5) - Marshall

Tulsa (-13.5) - Alabama-Birmingham

Tulane (+20) - Louisiana-Monroe
New Mexico St (+1) - Texas-San Antonio

Idaho (+27) - North Carolina

Georgia Tech (-26.5) - Middle Tennessee St

The top 7 games from Monday’s picks performed well.  5-2 including a tough beat with Texas edging Okie State in Stillwater.  Beyond that… Heinous.

//

Last Week: 9-10 
Season: 47-30-1 (61.0%)