Week 1 - College. Football. [faints]

Get Wet

As of Monday night, only about 60% of the Week 1 lines have been released.  I'll post updates as the week progresses.

+ Week 1 Plays --
Stanford (-26) - San Jose St

Bowling Green (+29) - Florida

North Texas (+44) - LSU

Notre Dame (-15) - Navy

Baylor (-10) - SMU

Hawaii (+40) - USC

Wyoming (+30) - Texas

Southern Miss (+20.5) - Nebraska

Boston College (+3) - Miami

Boise St (+7) - Michigan St

Texas-San Antonio (+6.5) - South Alabama

Massachusetts (+24.5) - UConn

Buffalo (+38) - Georgia

Duke (-3) - Florida Int’l

Last Week: N/A
Season: 0-0-0

+ Gut Plays --

Michigan (+14) - Bama.  Big line move on Tuesday.  I don't bet for or against Michigan; still I'd be remiss to not mention this incredible value.
Vandy (+6.5) - South Carolina.  Over 80% of the money is hitting SCar, yet no bumps to 7.  Want 7.  Need 7.  Thinking 7 comes before Saturday Thursday.
PS. These are two of the most contrarian plays in Week 1. Fading the public FTW!

Double PS  Auburn is currently (+3.5) vs. Clemson.  If the number bumps to (+4), the model will hit it.

The Model

After a pure 2011 season and countless +EV plays, I'm back for another year.

It might be impossible to repeat last year's hit rate. Wiseguys in Vegas who make a living off of college-football-betting dream of hitting 57% in a season. Then again, I ran more regressions in the summer and the model has been improved.

Last Season: 83-48-4 (63.4%)

// All lines will be posted as of that week's Monday; taken from 5Dimes (or SBR - Live Odds).
// Each play, unless stated differently, will be worth 1 unit. On this blog, 1 unit is worth 3% of the total bankroll.  For example, if my bankroll was $1,000, each bet would be $30. Units are incremental, not a static entity.
// Enjoy

"Cruising" to 900

With five wins in 2012, Michigan will become the first college football team to reach 900 all-time victories.

1. Michigan, 895-310-36

2. Yale, 869-347-55

3. Texas, 858-330-33

4. Notre Dame, 853-300-42

5. Nebraska, 846-349-40

6. Ohio State, 825-315-53

7. Oklahoma, 821-307-53

8. Harvard, 821-381-50

9. Penn, 818-463-42

10. Alabama, 814-320-43

PS  Such a cat move to ride solo.  Dog just wants to share and play.

Another Title for Hugh Noet

Congratulations to Hugh Noet!
Champions of Summer 2012
Men's Basketball at Windy City Fieldhouse!

The final night of playoffs started with a semi-final game between Hugh Noet and the Bulls. Hugh Noet advanced to the championship game with a 76-53 win. In the other semi-final match, Kcura beat Make it Drizze in a close 63-57 game. Hugh Noet dominated in the championship game against kcura with a final score of 60-33.

Michigan - 2012 Season

How will the 133rd edition of Michigan football do this fall?   My prediction:

Sep 1    at Alabama -- L
Sep 8    Air Force -- W
Sep 15  Massachusetts -- W
Sep 22  at Notre Dame   -- L
Oct 6    at Purdue -- W
Oct 13  Illinois -- W
Oct 20  Michigan State -- W
Oct 27  at Nebraska -- L
Nov 3   at Minnesota -- W
Nov 10  Northwestern -- W
Nov 17  Iowa -- W
Nov 24  at Ohio State -- L

BCS Championship Odds

After some intense pillowy research...

I've made plays on two teams to win the BCS Championship.
Florida State 10/1
Florida 50/1

Two Weeks Away

College football is two weeks away. [cracks open beer]

Thus far (and it is obviously very early), 73% are betting Alabama -12.5 against Michigan on Sportsbook.

In my unbiased opinion, I've never seen as much value on a team as Michigan +12.5 vs. Alabama.  Wheelhouse city.
PS Mike Colbert at Cantor Sports also believes UofM +12.5 is the best bet in Week 1.

Michigan, according to Vegas...
+2500 to win the national championship
Denard Robinson is the 3rd favorite to win the Heisman trophy (Matt Barkley, Montee Ball)
The odds show 57% to make a BCS game

Dogs Saving The Day

Dogs just doing it big again.  Love the black dog Ralph here.  Just walking over to these two cats trying to defuse the situation.  Telling everybody to remain calm.  “Hey it’s a beautiful day cats. Enjoy the weather. As you know amity means friendship.”  Then he walks away telling everybody he’s got it under control and the second he turns his back they start brawling.  If it were me I’d let the two cats claw each other’s eyes out.  The world would be a better place without them.  But that’s where dogs are better than you or me.  They don’t care who it is.  They don’t care if it’s the scum of the earth.  Ralph just wants everybody to get along and be besties.  If everybody isn’t holding hands, wagging their tails and singing kumbaya you ain’t trying hard enough.

Pure Wedding #6

On Sunday, I had a 4 and a half hour drive back to Chicago.  When I finally made it back to my apartment, I  walked in the door and...

Gone Fishing

Boss look if I've ever seen one.

Brazil Volleyball - Looks and Skills

Hey blue shirt, get at me.  We will own the 2 on 2 tournament at North Ave beach this weekend.