Super Bowl XLVII

Sticking with my preseason prediction for the Super Bowl:

Book it.

Outback

When I find out that Tirico and Gruden will announce the Outback Bowl:

Bowl Game Leans

When my friend Hugh and I watch college football on New Years Day and decide that it's time to order Pequod's Pizza.

//

A buddy asked me to rank all of the games starting on January 1st, except for the the GoDaddy.com Bowl.  11 games.

Compared to the recommended plays during the regular season, each of the plays below has less value.  The algorithm is pricing the lines very similar to Vegas.  These show which way the model is leaning.

In order of confidence:

+ Bowl Leans --
Michigan (+6) - South Carolina
Wisconsin (+6.5) - Stanford
Nebraska (+10) - Georgia
Oklahoma St (-16.5) - Purdue
Oklahoma (+4.5) - Texas A&M
Notre Dame (+10) - Alabama
Northwestern (+1.5) - Mississippi St
Kansas St (+9) - Oregon
Florida (-13.5) - Louisville
Northern Illinois (+13) – Florida St
Mississippi (-3) - Pittsburgh

When I Go Skiing Over The Holidays

What I think I look like:

What I really look like:

Bowl Bets

When I start making bets solely off feel:

There are two games that the model is right at the threshold:
BYU (-2.5) - San Diego State
Michigan (+5.5) - South Carolina

Best License Plate In The Game

So much swag I can't stand it.

Somebody Cue The Trumpets

Today I've been flying, driving, taking the train, going from meeting to meeting... Had a moment where I decided I would just run the algorithm tomorrow.  But honestly that would mean too many readers without picks for me to sleep at night.

//

In order of confidence, highest to lowest.  No point spreads.

35. Oklahoma St vs. Purdue
34. Arizona St vs. Navy
33. Florida vs. Louisville
32. Florida St vs. Northern Illinois
31. Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
30. Utah St vs. Toledo
29. Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina St
28. Cincinnati vs. Duke
27. Fresno St vs. SMU
26. Southern Cal vs. Georgia Tech
25. Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio U.
24. Brigham Young vs. San Diego St
23. Alabama vs. Notre Dame
22. Arizona vs. Nevada
21. Central Florida vs. Ball St
20. San Jose St vs. Bowling Green
19. Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
18. Georgia vs. Nebraska
17. Oregon vs. Kansas St
16. Arkansas St vs. Kent St
15. West Virginia vs. Syracuse
14. Louisiana-Lafayette vs. East Carolina
13. LSU vs. Clemson
12. Mississippi vs. Pittsburgh
11. Air Force vs. Rice
10. Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
9. Stanford vs. Wisconsin
8. Boise St vs. Washington
7. Iowa St vs. Tulsa
6. Oregon St vs. Texas
5. Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
4. Northwestern vs. Mississippi St
3. TCU vs. Michigan St
2. Michigan vs. South Carolina
1. UCLA vs. Baylor

//

When my friends visit the Stream and see the model's plays:

Bowl Picks

When one of my friends suggested that I post bowl picks, I thought:

They will arrive tomorrow night.

Nothing says Christmas spirit like calling your neighbor a Twat in Christmas Lights

To answer the question on everyone's mind, yes this is in Ohio.

B1G

When my friends and I see that the Big Ten is an underdog in every bowl game the and over/under for Big Ten wins is 2.

Model: Season in Review
If someone bet my top five plays every week, he would have finished 38-30 (56%).

Bowl Season

When I check the lines on Tuesday and see that we've missed the openers:

Using the current lines (12/4), the algorithm doesn't recommend any bowl games.  Zero.  There are five games near the threshold and I will continue to monitor them.  For now I find all of the prices (lines) to be relatively accurate.

Now that we have an entire season's worth of data, this is not surprising. I may lower the threshold. TBD

Week 14 Recap

We did it!  In a tough year for college football betting, from Vegas to the offshores, we made money.  Not much; but we bet 198 games and came out +$. (52.4% is the breakeven)

When I told a girl at dinner about the algorithm's record this year:

+ Week 14 Winners –

Northern Illinois (-5) - Kent St

Arkansas St (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

+ Week 14 Losers -- 

South Florida (+6) - Pittsburgh

Texas (+12) - Kansas St

// 

Last Week: 2-2

Season: 102-91-5 (52.8%)

Live Chat: SEC Championship

Humor aficionado @mikehoner and I will host a Live Chat for tomorrow's SEC Championship. 4pm ET. Do it.

Big Moves This Week

How does the algorithm find value before the lines move every week?

Northern Illinois: -5 to -7.5

Arkansas State: -9.5 to -10.5

Texas: +12 to +10.5

No new recommended plays.

When The College Football Season Is Over And I Watch The NBA

Underdogs FTW

There are 15 games on Saturday and the money has already flowed into 14 favorites.

The only underdog receiving over 50% of the action is Georgia (+8) vs Alabama.  I might just go play every underdog, not ask questions, and then collect my winnings.

//

A friend sent me this... I don’t care how old you are. I don’t care what level of football we’re talking about. I don’t even care what sport we’re talking about. You simply can’t get trucked worse than that in any level of life. Just absolute destroyed. Like that’s the type of play that sends you from playing free safety to the chess club in the blink of an eye.

Week 14

When it's Saturday and I've only bet on four games:

// Both Northern Illinois (9-2-1) and Kent St (10-2) are ATS machines. #MACtion

// Texas is starting Case McCoy at QB.  The spread has been building since the open yesterday. 

+ Week 14 Plays -- 

South Florida (+7) - Pittsburgh

Northern Illinois (-5) - Kent St

Arkansas St (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Texas (+12) - Kansas St

// 

Last Week: 5-5-3

Season: 100-89-5 (52.9%)

Week 13 Recap

Rivalry Week: College football at its finest.

// 5-2 in the Top 7 picks.  Should have been 6-1.  Why Lane Kiffin didn’t kick the field goal when he was down two scores makes no sense. 

// Southern Miss is one of the few teams that the model consistently recommends.  Thankfully their season is over.  0-12 (3-9 ATS). 

// The three pushes were all brutal. 

Up 5 in the 4^th, Troy threw a pick-6 and then gave up the two-point conversion. 

Florida Int’l lost by 6 in overtime.  No field goal?

Wisco’s kicker missed a chip shot in overtime.

+ Week 13 Winners – 

Colorado St (-2.5) - New Mexico

Maryland (+24.5) - North Carolina

Connecticut (+13) - Louisville

Idaho (+39.5) - Utah St

Arizona St (+3) - Arizona

+ Week 13 Losers -- 

Southern Miss (+5) - Memphis

Southern Cal (+6) - Notre Dame

Illinois (+19) - Northwestern

Iowa St (+1) - West Virginia

South Florida (+13.5) - Cincinnati

+ Pushes -- 

Troy (+3) - Middle Tennessee St

Florida Int'l (+6) - Louisiana-Monroe

Wisconsin (+3) - Penn State

// 

Last Week: 5-5-3

Season: 100-89-5 (52.9%)

Gut Plays: 2-1 last week.  10-8 on the year (55.6%).

Michigan 21. Ohio 26.

1. The Buckeyes have the worst and most insufferable fans in the country.  But everyone already knows that. When I responded to all of their chants and middle fingers by asking where I could get some free tattoos --- that shut them up. Quickly.

2. Nice to see Jim Tressel get a standing ovation between quarters.  Institutional Chaos FTW!

3. Notre Dame at USC in a few minutes.  ND by a field goal.

Tomorrow's Big Game

Welcome to Ohio

The moment I crossed the border, I needed a shower.

Michigan +4.

Does This Look Like A Family From The State of Ohio?

Week 13 Gut Plays

My friends' reactions when I post 3 plays instead of 1:

+ Gut Plays -- 
Florida - Florida State (+8)
Kent State - Ohio (-9.5)
Tulsa – SMU (-5)

Week 13

// Rivalry Week

// Underdog city. In the 13 games, we are rolling with 12 dogs.  If people don't like betting against this many favorites:

// The ND-USC line has not been released on 5Dimes. On an offshore site, I saw ND -6.

+ Week 13 Plays -- 

Colorado St (-2.5) - New Mexico

Maryland (+24.5) - North Carolina

Connecticut (+13) - Louisville

Southern Miss (+5) - Memphis

Southern Cal (+6) - Notre Dame

Idaho (+39.5) - Utah St

Arizona St (+3) - Arizona

Illinois (+19) - Northwestern

Iowa St (+1) - West Virginia

Troy (+3) - Middle Tennessee St

South Florida (+13.5) - Cincinnati

Florida Int'l (+6) - Louisiana-Monroe

Wisconsin (+3) - Penn State

// 

Last Week: 8-6-1

Season: 95-84-2 (53.1%)

Notre Dame: Return to Glory

Yesterday's games add another feather to college football's cap.  Just the best sport there is all day every day.  Anyway two things caught my eye.

1. Notre Dame will deservedly be #1 in the polls.  Despite their Pitt, BC, Wake mid-season siesta, their schedule strength is still better than teams like Kansas State, Oregon, and most teams outside the SEC.  What's funny is that Domers were probably running around with their pants off after witnessing the perfect day.  Kansas State lost, Oregon lost, Barkley got hurt.  In hindsight, while they were going nuts as Baylor was crushing the Wildcasts in Waco, a Kansas State win would have been much better for ND fans.  They wouldn't be double digit underdogs against Bill Snyder's crew.

2. In 2011, Michigan had a weird schedule en route to an 11-2 record.  They faced more bowl-eligible teams than any other program in the country but never had a matchup with a Top 10 team.  2012 is a much different story.  If Michigan loses in Columbus next weekend, they will likely have faced the AP #1 team (ND), the #2 team (Bama), the #3 team (Ohio St), and a Top 10 Nebraska team, all away from Ann Arbor.  And three of them at night. Toughest schedule in the country.

//

Notre Dame fans on Sunday morning:

Week 12 Recap

An interesting weekend with Stanford coming up big, a few close wins, and a press conference that leads to only one conclusion: Les Miles is on bath salts.

After a lot of close losses this year, we were due for some positive variance and we finally saw it this weekend.  Now it’s time to stay above 53% and finish the year strong.

//

There is a sharp bettor I know who plays every sport and his results speak to how difficult and crazy this college football season has been.  In the past year, he has made a profit of +156 units.  Here is his breakdown by sport:

NHL +64

NCAAB +48

MLB +41

NFL +33

NBA +22

NCAAF -52

//

+ Week 12 Winners – 

Colorado St (+28.5) - Boise St

Stanford (+21.5) - Oregon

South Alabama (+10) - Middle Tennessee St

Maryland (+31) - Florida St

Notre Dame (-23.5) - Wake Forest

Hawai`i (+23.5) - Air Force

Ball St (-4) - Ohio U.

Boston College (+10) - Virginia Tech

+ Week 12 Losers – 

Arkansas (+7) - Mississippi St

Utah (-1) - Arizona

Oklahoma (-10.5) - West Virginia

Western Michigan (-12.5) - Eastern Michigan

Nevada (-10) - New Mexico

Brigham Young (-3) - San Jose St

+ Push --

Idaho (+7) - Texas-San Antonio

//

Last Week: 8-6-1

Season: 95-84-2 (53.1%)

Week 12

// Trying to appear confident after the last two weeks.

// These lines are taken from 5Dimes as always.  While traveling for work, I ran the algorithm on Monday at 12pm ET and Thursday at 12pm ET.  The lines below are from those dates/times.

// Last week, I realized that I was pulling for a lot of teams that were playing their backup QB.  I don’t have any inputs or relationships to account for the impact of a backup quarterback.  When a backup takes over the #1 spot on the depth chart, the lines in Vegas adjust but my algorithm doesn’t factor the effect of this.  When a team is playing its backup QB, I have highlighted the game in blue. 

// I’m also skeptical to bet against any of the top 3 teams right now (Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame).  My model can’t account for these teams putting up style points as they try to prove that they belong in the top 2.

+ Week 12 Plays -- 

Idaho (+7) - Texas-San Antonio

Colorado St (+28.5) - Boise St

Stanford (+21.5) - Oregon

Arkansas (+7) - Mississippi St

Utah (-1) - Arizona

South Alabama (+10) - Middle Tennessee St

Maryland (+31) - Florida St

Oklahoma (-10.5) - West Virginia

Western Michigan (-12.5) - Eastern Michigan

Notre Dame (-23.5) - Wake Forest

Hawai`i (+23.5) - Air Force

Nevada (-10) - New Mexico

Brigham Young (-3) - San Jose St

Ball St (-4) - Ohio U.

Boston College (+10) - Virginia Tech

// 

+ Gut Plays -- 
Air Force – Hawaii (-21.5). This is the current Friday afternoon line on 5Dimes.  This may go against the model but I’m confident in this pick for three reasons.

1. My friend at work has essentially made this his lock of the year. I’m riding it.

2. Hawaii reeks.

3. When I watch Hawaii attempt to play football:

Week 11 Recap

+ Week 11 Winners – 

Oklahoma St (-7.5) - West Virginia

Wyoming (pick) - New Mexico

Colorado St (+2.5) - UNLV

Nebraska (-7) - Penn State

North Carolina St (-7.5) - Wake Forest

+ Week 11 Losers -- 

Maryland (+31) - Clemson

California (+27.5) - Oregon

Hawai`i (+29.5) - Boise St

Miami OH (+6.5) - Kent St

Michigan (-11) - Northwestern

Temple (+11) - Cincinnati

New Mexico St (+22.5) - San Jose St

Auburn (+15) - Georgia

Southern Miss (+15) - SMU

Last Week: 5-9 
Season: 87-78-1 (52.7%)

Week 12 Plays

A lot of traveling this week for work.  All picks will be posted on Thursday.

//

When I deprive my friends of CFB plays until Thursday, they typically think:

Big Weekend Coming

If the model goes 10-4:

If the model goes 4-10:

If the model goes 0-12:

More Week 11 Plays

With a midweek line shift, the model found value on the winless and terrible Southern Miss Golden Eagles.

+ Week 11 Plays -- 
North Carolina St (-7.5) - Wake Forest
Southern Miss (+15) - SMU

Regardless of the results, the model continues to find value every week based on line movements.  Have already seen 2+ point shifts in the model's favor for Oklahoma State, Temple, Wyoming, and New Mexico State.  Need the +EV to finally pay off this Saturday.

Week 11 Gut Play

I really thought Sparty was going to take down Nebraska last week.  Then these shenanigans started:

+ Gut Play --
Marshall (-2.5) - UAB

Election Day

As a rule I don't like to discuss politics in public.  I've learned that those conversations can get heated real quick.  But my hands are tied.  The banner on the website says we cover politics and well it's Election Day so we are going to cover politics.  In lieu of stating my own position, I'm just going to post an email from a friend.  To quote Don King... Only in America.

//

Democrats discount Mitt because he’s a “bozo”, the beer thing, the dog thing, none of that shit should matter. Here is the bottom line: the social implications of electing a Republican or a Democrat are immensely overblown. The American culture, from its very strict and ultra conservative Puritanical beginnings has, since our nation’s inception, been trending towards a liberal culture and nothing is going to stop that. Sure, electing certain officials can speed up or, yes, slow down the process but, eventually, we move towards progressive agendas. Gay marriage, abortion, women’s rights, racial and religious tolerance is going to happen eventually. The proliferation of information and education deems it as inevitable.

What we need right now, I would say, is someone who knows how to make and manage money. The country’s economy is in the shitter and yeah, Romney may be a stiff square who doesn't booze and is a Mormon but the man knows how to make the green flow and that, more than anything is what we need. He’s not going to roll back gay marriage, he’s not going to make interracial couples illegal, he’s going to try and make money which is what we need. It should be up to the states, in my opinion, to determine such social-centric policies and, yes, when the time comes the federal government may need to give those bible thumping, ultra religious states the push into the 21st century but that should not determine who you vote for because, as I said, it’s going to get there eventually.

I mean, what I would like to see neither party is going to offer, graduated flat taxes, federal term limits for Congress, the closing of military bases across the globe, the establishment of a firm border with Mexico using said military assets being reallocated, the closing of federal and state tax loopholes, the legalization and taxing of marijuana and, for that matter all drugs. What we need is a multi-party system so that you don’t sign your allegiance away to parties that are, by and large, driven by radicals on both sides of the aisle. As such, you have to use your conscious to decide the lesser between two evils and, though not ideal, it’s the process we currently have.

So yeah, in the end I will vote Republican and yes, empower conservative tea party assholes but right now I think we need a firm economic hand and if you want to make the argument that Obama is better at that than Romney go right ahead. You are falling into the “Who’d I rather hang out with” decision process which is, quite frankly, ridiculous.

Week 11

When I see that the model finds value on Maryland again:

+ Week 11 Plays -- 
Maryland (+31.5) - Clemson
Oklahoma St (-7.5) - West Virginia
California (+28) - Oregon
Hawai`i (+29.5) - Boise St
Miami OH (+6.5) - Kent St
Michigan (-11) - Northwestern
Wyoming (pick) - New Mexico
Colorado St (+2.5) - UNLV
Temple (+11) - Cincinnati
New Mexico St (+22.5) - San Jose St
Auburn (+15.5) - Georgia
Nebraska (-7) - Penn State

I am avoiding Maryland. There is no way to implement a “5th string QB who was playing linebacker two weeks ago” variable into the algorithm.

//

Last Week: 4-12
Season: 82-69-1 (54.3%)

Week 10 Recap

4-12!!!

+ Week 10 Winners -- 

Akron (+21.5) - Kent St

TCU (+7) - West Virginia

Texas A&M (-6.5) - Mississippi St

East Carolina (+4) - Houston

+ Week 10 Losers -- 

Hawai`i (+34) - Fresno St

Boston College (+4) - Wake Forest

Notre Dame (-16.5) - Pittsburgh

Eastern Michigan (+17.5) - Ohio U.

Colorado St (+10) - Wyoming

Southern Miss (-3) - Alabama-Birmingham

Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Arkansas (-6) - Tulsa

Navy (-14) - Florida Atlantic

Maryland (+9) - Georgia Tech

Temple (+16.5) - Louisville

Idaho (+20) - San Jose St

A bloodbath.  No other way to describe it.  However it’s no coincidence that the model’s worst day in two years coincides with the beating Vegas took.  Sportsbooks got hammered on both Saturday and Sunday.

“This was the perfect storm that has been brewing for the entire season,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It’s a disaster.”

Sporting News: Tough Weekend

So the sportsbooks, which make money in the long run, were hammered.  Big line shifts were still in the model’s favor.  And we saw tough beats like Hawaii (1 point), Arkansas (2 points), and Southern Miss collapsing after a 16-0 halftime lead.

The fight back to 55% begins today.

Last Week: 4-12 
Season: 82-69-1 (54.3%)

On a positive note, hitting the under on Bama-LSU was huge.

What Just Happened?

Did the model just collapse?  As far as I can tell, this sums up today's performance:

55%?

The model is hitting 58% this year, down from 63% last year.  Why is this still a success?

This shows what different win percentages yield for $1,000 wagers each with -110 vig. For example, a 55% win rate makes $55,000.

If it was easy to win at a 55% rate, then many people would be doing it and hurting the sportsbooks. Even with all the square bettors losing their money, sooner or later, the 55% winners would bankrupt the sportsbooks. The mere existence of -110 lines shows that few people can pick at a 55% rate.

The Mainstream is one of the few.

More Week 10 Plays

+ Week 10 Plays -- 
Maryland (+9) - Georgia Tech
Temple (+16.5) - Louisville
East Carolina (+4) - Houston
Idaho (+20) - San Jose St

// Maryland is playing their 5th string QB, also a freshman linebacker. He played quarterback in high school. Buyer beware.

// Two possible opportunities to middle this week.  To create enough +EV, I'll usually only hedge when the line crosses the 3&7 or the 7&10.  Arkansas opened -6; now -9.  Colorado St opened +10; now +7.5. Watching both.

Mario, Luigi and Scooby Doo Just Chillin At the Bulls Game

Good seats. Mario must know people.

Week 10 Gut Play: A Total

+ Gut Plays -- 
Alabama – LSU.  Under 42.

// Potential BCS Championship lines in Vegas: Alabama would be a 6-pt fav over Oregon, a 10-pt fav over K-State and a 13-pt fav over ND.

Week 10

Gronk describing the celebration: “The little Nutcracker dude, guarding the house, the palace.”

The timing, the situation, the venue.  All working together to create the perfect spike.  And his commitment to the dance is unparalleled.   It’s like he became that Little Nutcracker Dude.

+ Week 10 Plays -- 

Hawai`i (+34) - Fresno St

Akron (+21.5) - Kent St

Boston College (+4) - Wake Forest

TCU (+7) - West Virginia

Notre Dame (-16.5) - Pittsburgh

Texas A&M (-6.5) - Mississippi St

Eastern Michigan (+17.5) - Ohio U.

Colorado St (+10) - Wyoming

Southern Miss (-3) - Alabama-Birmingham

Western Kentucky (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

Arkansas (-6) - Tulsa

Navy (-14) - Florida Atlantic

// 

Last Week: 6-1 
Season: 78-57-1 (57.8%)

Week 9 Recap

6-1. Some are calling me a hero today... That's not for me to decide. History will tell the tale. 

+ Week 9 Winners – 

Brigham Young (+2) - Georgia Tech

Ohio State (+2.5) - Penn State

Miami OH (+7.5) - Ohio U.

Utah St (-21) - Texas-San Antonio

Arkansas St (+4) - Louisiana-Lafayette

New Mexico St (+30.5) - Louisiana Tech

+ Week 9 Losers -- 

South Florida (-2.5) - Syracuse

// Wins of 27, 26, 16.5, 14.5, 10.5, 10.  A Syracuse touchdown with 3 seconds left derailed any dreams of the undefeated week.

Last Week: 6-1 
Season: 78-57-1 (57.8%)

More Week 9 Plays

+ Week 9 Plays -- 
New Mexico St (+30.5) - Louisiana Tech
South Florida (-2.5) - Syracuse

Something to remember about the algorithm --- It finds correlations and exploits value that the human eye does not see.  It's also difficult to factor in the importance of unique variables, like injuries.  If Braxton Miller is fresh off his concussion and may play one quarter against Penn State, or the entire game, how should that be factored into the analysis?  Is it worth 1 point?   3 points?   The difference may create a huge betting opportunity.  Another example...

Nice To See The Lions Put Up A Fight Last Night