Week 14 - Let's Heat

Alabama ingenuity..... Roll Tide.

+ Week 14 Plays --
Houston (-13) – Southern Miss
Louisiana Monroe (-7) – Florida Atlantic
North Texas (-5.5) – Middle Tennessee State

Last week: 1-0
Season: 78-46-4 (62.9%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-
Georgia (+14) – LSU

Just claimed some winnings from preseason futures bets.
Ohio State – Under 9 Wins
Nebraska – Under 10 Wins


Did he?

Week 13 Recap - Go Blue

Was on the field in the Big House before the team hit the M Go Blue banner.

+ Week 13 Winners --
Cincinnati (-3) – Syracuse The line dropped all the way to -2. Should have smashed it. 30-13 victory.

Last week: 1-0
Season: 78-46-4 (62.9%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-
South Carolina and Iowa State covered. War Eagle did not.

//

Exactly at this time last year, I caught the hottest streak of my life.
20-1 in 21 posted games, including a 6-0 run in the conference championships.
Could not even control the positive variance.

//

For UofM fans, it seems like Michigan will go to the BCS as long as LSU beats Georgia.

Geaux Tigers

Week 13: Michigan - Ohio State Week

+ Week 13 Plays --
Cincinnati (-2.5) – Syracuse


Well that’s it. The model likes South Florida (-3) over Louisville, but it doesn’t factor the possibility that USF might be without their QB. A few other games are right on the edge. I’ll monitor the lines and look at them again tomorrow.

Two opens that I missed but would have played.
Penn State (+18.5) – Wisconsin. Now down to +14.5.
Pittsburgh (+10.5) – West Virginia. Now down to +6.5.

Last week: 5-5
Season: 77-46-4 (62.6%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-
South Carolina (-3) - Clemson. Trending towards (-4).
Iowa State (+28.5) - Oklahoma.
Auburn (+21) - Alabama

I Want Michigan in the BCS, and I Wanted It Yesterday

Surprised?

There are a lot of good football games on this slate this weekend, and I will be making a lot of assumptions in this post (i.e. Wisco beating Penn State this weekend, among others). But according to my predictions, a Michigan victory over Ohio State will put the Wolverines in the BCS Sugar Bowl.

//

Except for one extreme scenario*, a maximum of two teams from one conference can go to the BCS. In the SEC, that likely means that LSU/Bama are in the BCS while Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina partake in early-January trips to Florida.

The Rose Bowl will be filled by the Big Ten champ (Winner of Wisco/MSU) and the Pac 12 champ (Winner of Oregon/UCLA).

The Orange Bowl will get the ACC champ vs. the Big East champ.**

The Fiesta Bowl will get the winner of Oklahoma and Okie State, and that leaves three open spots.

Houston will get one (assuming they win out), Stanford will likely get one, and Michigan will get one. The Sugar Bowl will pick first as their tie-in (SEC) will be in the championship game, so they pick Michigan or Stanford. The Fiesta then picks either Michigan or Stanford (whoever is left), and then the Sugar gets stuck with Houston.

As Michigan has a national fan base and is a big draw, the Sugar will likely pick Michigan over Stanford to face Houston in New Orleans. Get me to Bourbon Street!

On a similar note, I would rather face Houston over Ark/Georgia/SC in the Citrus Capital One Bowl, especially with an invite from the BCS.



*LSU/Bama are ranked #1 and #2 in the BCS, but don’t win the SEC. For the first time in history, this is conceivable. Georgia would need to beat LSU in the SEC Championship game and then have LSU/Bama stay in the top 2.
**Technically the Orange Bowl is not locked to the Big East champ. The At-Large selection order this year is Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. But because the Sugar's tie-in will be in the championship game, the selection for the At-Large teams will really be Sugar, Fiesta, Sugar again, Orange. There is no way that Michigan would get through the first three picks and go to the Orange, but the Sugar could theoretically pick the Big East champ over Houston. Seems very unlikely unless it’s West Virginia and they think that a UofM-WVU match-up is interesting.

Week 12 Recap - Batting .500

+ Week 12 Winners --

Arkansas State (-10.5) Line closed at -13.5. Not that it mattered but that’s a big move.
Duke (+11) DERP
Troy (-11)
Michigan (-3)
Air Force (-23)

+ Week 12 Losers --
Marshall (-11.5)
Central Michigan (+14.5)
Oregon (-14)
Kansas (+31) 61.....to.....7 See below
Utah (-3.5)

Last week: 5-5
Season: 77-46-4 (62.6%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-Ended up rolling with Kansas State (+8.5) / Penn State (+6). And that’s what we’ve earned here today, gentlemen.

Does anyone else get this picture in their head when they bet on Kansas?

Kansas State (+8.5) ???

Don't mind if I do. Easy money.

Week 12 - We'll At Least Try For an 8-1 Repeat

+ Week 12 Plays --
Marshall (-11.5)
Arkansas State (-10.5)
Duke (+11)
Troy (-11)
Michigan (-3)
Central Michigan (+14.5)
Oregon (-14)
Kansas (+31)
Air Force (-23)
Utah (-3.5)

Very interested in Texas (-8.5) vs. Kansas State.

Last week: 8-1
Season: 72-41-4 (63.7%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-
TBD

Week 11 - He's Back!

+ Week 11 Winners --
Pittsburgh (+3.5) Nice outright win as projected.
UL Monroe (-5.5) 28-point victory for Warhawk nation.
Michigan (pk) UofM Scoring Defense --- 2011 = 5th; 2010 = 107th.
-- Also one of two teams in the country to give up no plays over 50 yards. Gave up 8 last year.
Kansas (+21) Overtime loss by 1.
Kansas State (+4.5) Four-OT outright win.
Western Michigan (+12.5) 66-63 loss in Toledo.
Utah (-7) Easy 18-point cover over the Bruins.
South Carolina (-2.5) Low-scoring game in Columbia led to a 5-point victory.

+ Week 11 Losers --
Cincinnati (-3) A friend warned me about the Big East. He was right... 3-point loss for Cinci.

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-
Ugh! Welcome to Loser Central. Nebraska (-3.5) and Stanford (-3.5) both got clowned.

Definitely gave back some winnings from the model.

Last week: 8-1
Season: 72-41-4 (63.7%)

Week 11 - The Rebound

+ Week 11 Plays --

Pittsburgh (+3.5)
Cincinnati (-3)
UL Monroe (-5.5)
Michigan (pk)
Kansas (+21)
Kansas State (+4.5)
Western Michigan (+12.5)
Utah (-7)

Can’t find a line for South Carolina – Florida. If it opens at SC -3 or lower, I will play the Gamecocks.
Not laying Kansas yet. That line will grow. America loves Robert Griffin.

Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.

Last week: 2-4-1
Season: 64-40-4 (61.5%)

+ Gut Plays of the Week –-Thinking Stanford -3. Dreaming Stanford -3. Line is trading at -3.5.

Week 10 Recap - How To Take a Financial Bath

+ Week 10 Winners --
Stanford (-20.5)
Tennessee (-20)

+ Week 10 Losers --
Michigan (-4)
Temple (-3)
Notre Dame (-13.5)
Boise State (-41)

Push: Missouri (+3)

Last week: 2-4-1
Season: 64-40-4 (61.5%)

LSU vs. Alabama

LSU +5

Did Old Sko do it again or did Old Sko do it again? Just giving away free money. In other news I lost every other game on the board yesterday and every Breeder’s Cup race.

Les Miles Entrance Onto The Field Last Night

#1 vs #2

If I was setting the line for this game, I’d place it right at 3 points in favor of the home team. In Tuscaloosa, Bama -3. In Baton Rouge, Tigers -3. Anything larger and I’d see value on the ‘dog.

At quarterback, both signal-callers have similar talent and throw a decent ball. But there is an old saying: “In times of crisis, experience counts.” Jarrett Lee has played in a lot of close games in his career. I don’t think we’ve ever seen AJ McCarron tested against a defense like the one he’ll face on Saturday night.

At wide receiver, LSU has the decisive advantage. The trio of Randle, Shepard, and Beckham will keep Bama’s DBs out of the box. Especially Randle, as he is the one playmaker in this game that can stretch the field. With Maze and Hanks, Bama doesn’t have the playmakers to keep LSU’s defense honest. Mathieu and Claiborne can play man and the Tigers can load up the box with nine guys to stop Trent Richardson.

This leads to the running backs. Richardson is a horse but there won’t be many lanes for him to run in this game. Bodog lists the over/under on Trent Richardson rushing yards against LSU at 99.5. I’d lay the under. And don’t sleep on Spencer Ware who is a bruising back for the Tigers. I could see him having the better night among the RBs.

With the other position groups, there is talent across the board. The offensive lines for both teams are similar, both with a strength in run blocking. LSU has the better D-line, especially with their depth. The advantage at LB goes to Bama with Hightower and Upshaw. I think those two linebackers might decide the game as they’ll need to stop the run without safety support. On to the DBs, these guys will be bathing in money in a few years. Kirkpatrick/Barron for Bama. Mathieu/Claiborne for LSU.

This is going to be a great game.

The one advantage on special teams might go to LSU as their punter, Brad Wing, drops dimes in the redzone like Hugh DeVor lofts his 60-degree. He also knows how to celebrate.

Finally, the crowd will be intense after hours and hours of tailgating and debauchery, but the late-start might play into LSU’s hand. Some think that the Tigers are only a force when the lights are on in Death Valley. Think again…

(taken from covers.com)
30-1 Night Games Away From Home

09/24/11 at No.16 West Virginia (7:00 pm) Won 47-21
09/15/11 at No.25 Miss State (7:00 pm) Won 19-6
09/03/11 No.3 Oregon - Cowboys Classic (7:00 pm) Won 40-27
01/07/11 No.18 Texas A&M - Cotton Bowl (7:29 pm) Won 41-24
10/09/10 at No.14 Florida (6:30 pm) Won 33-29
09/11/10 at Vanderbilt (6:00 pm) Won 27-3
09/04/10 No.18 North Carolina - Chick-fil-A Classic (7:00 pm) Won 30-24
09/05/09 at Washington (9:30 pm) Won 31-23
12/31/08 No.14 Georgia Tech - Chick-fil-A Bowl (6:30 pm) Won 38-3
10/18/08 at South Carolina (7:00 pm) Won 24-17
10/11/08 AT NO.11 FLORIDA (7:00 pm) LOST 21-51
09/20/08 at No.10 Auburn (6:45 pm) Won 26-21
01/07/08 No.1 Ohio State - BCS Championship (7:00 pm) Won 38-24
08/30/07 at Miss State (7:00 pm) Won 45-0
01/03/07 No.11 Notre Dame - Sugar Bowl (7:00 pm) Won 41-14
12/30/05 No.9 Miami - Chick-fil-A Bowl (6:30 pm) Won 40-3
11/19/05 at Ole Miss (6:45 pm) Won 40-7
10/08/05 at Vanderbilt (6:00 pm) Won 34-6
09/10/05 at No.15 Arizona State (8:15 pm) Won 35-31
10/09/04 at No.12 Florida (6:45 pm) Won 24-21
01/04/04 No.1 Oklahoma - BCS Championship (7:00 pm) Won 21-14
12/06/03 No.5 Georgia - SEC Championship (7:00 pm) Won 34-13
11/15/03 at Alabama (6:45 pm) Won 27-3
10/18/03 at South Carolina (6:45 pm) Won 33-7
09/27/03 at Miss State (8:00 pm) Won 41-6
09/06/03 at Arizona (9:00 pm) Won 59-13
10/12/02 at No.16 Florida (6:45 pm) Won 36-7
01/01/02 No.7 Illinois - Sugar Bowl (7:30 pm) Won 47-34
12/08/01 No.2 Tennessee - SEC Championship (7:00 pm) Won 31-20
10/20/01 at Miss State (8:00 pm) Won 42-0
10/13/01 at Kentucky (6:00 pm) Won 29-25

LES MILES FTW