Super Bowl XLVII

Sticking with my preseason prediction for the Super Bowl:

Book it.

Outback

When I find out that Tirico and Gruden will announce the Outback Bowl:

Bowl Game Leans

When my friend Hugh and I watch college football on New Years Day and decide that it's time to order Pequod's Pizza.

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A buddy asked me to rank all of the games starting on January 1st, except for the the GoDaddy.com Bowl.  11 games.

Compared to the recommended plays during the regular season, each of the plays below has less value.  The algorithm is pricing the lines very similar to Vegas.  These show which way the model is leaning.

In order of confidence:

+ Bowl Leans --
Michigan (+6) - South Carolina
Wisconsin (+6.5) - Stanford
Nebraska (+10) - Georgia
Oklahoma St (-16.5) - Purdue
Oklahoma (+4.5) - Texas A&M
Notre Dame (+10) - Alabama
Northwestern (+1.5) - Mississippi St
Kansas St (+9) - Oregon
Florida (-13.5) - Louisville
Northern Illinois (+13) – Florida St
Mississippi (-3) - Pittsburgh

When I Go Skiing Over The Holidays

What I think I look like:

What I really look like:

Bowl Bets

When I start making bets solely off feel:

There are two games that the model is right at the threshold:
BYU (-2.5) - San Diego State
Michigan (+5.5) - South Carolina

Best License Plate In The Game

So much swag I can't stand it.

Somebody Cue The Trumpets

Today I've been flying, driving, taking the train, going from meeting to meeting... Had a moment where I decided I would just run the algorithm tomorrow.  But honestly that would mean too many readers without picks for me to sleep at night.

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In order of confidence, highest to lowest.  No point spreads.

35. Oklahoma St vs. Purdue
34. Arizona St vs. Navy
33. Florida vs. Louisville
32. Florida St vs. Northern Illinois
31. Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
30. Utah St vs. Toledo
29. Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina St
28. Cincinnati vs. Duke
27. Fresno St vs. SMU
26. Southern Cal vs. Georgia Tech
25. Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio U.
24. Brigham Young vs. San Diego St
23. Alabama vs. Notre Dame
22. Arizona vs. Nevada
21. Central Florida vs. Ball St
20. San Jose St vs. Bowling Green
19. Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
18. Georgia vs. Nebraska
17. Oregon vs. Kansas St
16. Arkansas St vs. Kent St
15. West Virginia vs. Syracuse
14. Louisiana-Lafayette vs. East Carolina
13. LSU vs. Clemson
12. Mississippi vs. Pittsburgh
11. Air Force vs. Rice
10. Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers
9. Stanford vs. Wisconsin
8. Boise St vs. Washington
7. Iowa St vs. Tulsa
6. Oregon St vs. Texas
5. Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
4. Northwestern vs. Mississippi St
3. TCU vs. Michigan St
2. Michigan vs. South Carolina
1. UCLA vs. Baylor

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When my friends visit the Stream and see the model's plays:

Bowl Picks

When one of my friends suggested that I post bowl picks, I thought:

They will arrive tomorrow night.

Nothing says Christmas spirit like calling your neighbor a Twat in Christmas Lights

To answer the question on everyone's mind, yes this is in Ohio.

B1G

When my friends and I see that the Big Ten is an underdog in every bowl game the and over/under for Big Ten wins is 2.

Model: Season in Review
If someone bet my top five plays every week, he would have finished 38-30 (56%).

Bowl Season

When I check the lines on Tuesday and see that we've missed the openers:

Using the current lines (12/4), the algorithm doesn't recommend any bowl games.  Zero.  There are five games near the threshold and I will continue to monitor them.  For now I find all of the prices (lines) to be relatively accurate.

Now that we have an entire season's worth of data, this is not surprising. I may lower the threshold. TBD

Week 14 Recap

We did it!  In a tough year for college football betting, from Vegas to the offshores, we made money.  Not much; but we bet 198 games and came out +$. (52.4% is the breakeven)

When I told a girl at dinner about the algorithm's record this year:

+ Week 14 Winners –

Northern Illinois (-5) - Kent St

Arkansas St (-9.5) - Middle Tennessee St

+ Week 14 Losers -- 

South Florida (+6) - Pittsburgh

Texas (+12) - Kansas St

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Last Week: 2-2

Season: 102-91-5 (52.8%)